O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[ragingpup]

Rock and hard place. Many labour members want a referendum push, many labour supporters/voters will see this as betrayal.

Labour will back a referendum if all else fails but whilst other means are still to resolve, a move in this direction now will alienate labour leavers. If the vote fails as expected, a confidence vote fails, no general election manifests (and Corbyn knows this succession of events could take a week to be clarified, hence thepush to get the vote out of the way) then I would expect a referendum agenda - simply as there would be no majority mandate left on the table. To push before this is confirmed though will alienate labour leavers who want to leave but not at No Deal cost.

[animallittle3]

Rock and hard place. Many labour members want a referendum push, many labour supporters/voters will see this as betrayal.

Labour will back a referendum if all else fails but whilst other means are still to resolve, a move in this direction now will alienate labour leavers. If the vote fails as expected, a confidence vote fails, no general election manifests (and Corbyn knows this succession of events could take a week to be clarified, hence thepush to get the vote out of the way) then I would expect a referendum agenda - simply as there would be no majority mandate left on the table. To push before this is confirmed though will alienate labour leavers who want to leave but not at No Deal cost.

The work done by Momentum and attracting the younger vote is very understated , trust me Corbyn wouldn't have clawed back that 20 point lead at the last election under his own steam .

He will lose the younger vote by half in my opinion and they will vote Liberal Democrats and if he moves to a second referendum he's nearly as fecked in the labour brexit heartlands , he may just hang on by the skin of his teeth but it's far too decisive for my liking .

Rock and a hard place as far as winning an election is concerned for sure .

If Momentum throw their weight behind something he'd better take it onboard , trust me , they will make him or break him .

I'm talking in purely Labour Party terms here , some very clever people inside Momentum , the digital side of things is incredible and young people are where it's at .

He's in a tough situation to say the least and last weeks little outburst is proof the pressure is getting to him .

This brexit thing has many tentacles and it will destroy more than it creates a promising career and it ain't done yet .

[Exiletyke]

Currently, through the EU, we participate in 750 trade treaties with 78 countries. They all lapse at 11pm 29th March 2019 if we crash out with no deal.

The upside of Mays interim deal is it holds these treaties in place until we can negotiate our own trade deals.

Which means we are participating in Trade deals with 51 non EU countries
What's stopping us just carrying on with that arrangement under the same conditions with the 51 & preparing for it?
I'm sure the 51 would be delighted wouldn't they?

[WanChaiMiller]

Which means we are participating in Trade deals with 51 non EU countries
What's stopping us just carrying on with that arrangement under the same conditions with the 51 & preparing for it?
I'm sure the 51 would be delighted wouldn't they?

Good grief. Judging by this Im pretty sure you dont fully understand how our membership of the EU works. The EU has the 750 treaties with 78 countries. We benefit from these agreements through our membership of the EU.

'No Deal' means you will have voted the UK out of all those agreements. They all lapse on 29th March. We will be the only country with Mauritania to trade exclusively on WTO terms.

[Exiletyke]

I probably don't but of course you probably understand all the workings of the EU
We are blessed to have such a knowledgeable member among us
So I repeat What's stopping us talking to the 51
Try giving an answer avoiding the clever dick condescension

[John2]

I probably don't but of course you probably understand all the workings of the EU
We are blessed to have such a knowledgeable member among us
So I repeat What's stopping us talking to the 51
Try giving an answer avoiding the clever dick condescension

Nothing is stopping us talking to any of the world's countries about trade deals.

The problem is that trade deals are laws that need to be passed into law by the respective governments.

Every country has a different legal system and different processes for approving trade agreements.

There are a magnitude of challenges in renegotiating the vast number of trade deals.

Nothing stopping us talking, and sure we could pass some at short notice, but in the bigger picture we'd probably not be able to get many through in the timescale and no guarantees as to what sort of agreements we could renegotiate.

You don't need to understand all the working of the EU, just a vague understanding of global politics.

[Exiletyke]

Here's my vague understanding of global politics
Global politics is largely driven by money which in the end, counts
So I believe that all this flapdoodle of difficulties with trade agreements can be overcome by interim arrangements which can be revisited in due course
Where there's a will there's a way
Add money to that scenario & just see how quickly that can happen
Or we could just wring our hands & say oh dear

[Exiletyke]

As an adjunct to my previous post
If we leave with a no deal does that mean that Germany /France/Italy/will not be able to sell us their cars ,wine etc

[John2]

If it were as simple as that all the world would have great trade deals, but the reality is much more complicated and some countries end up with much better deals than others.

If we leave with no deal on WTO terms then those countries will still be able to sell us their cars its just that we would have to pay 10% extra in tariffs (things get more expensive).

The people in those countries would also pay a 10% tariff on such imports. For some products such as dairy the tariffs are as much as 35% extra.

So it would hurt our exports as everything would suddenly become more expensive for people buying in other countries and they'd probably look to buy locally more often.

Our government can end the import tariffs but it can't just do it for the EU countries it would have to do it the same for all WTO countries.

So its difficult, if we have the tariffs one way its bad for british businesses as imports are cheap and competitive, and exports become more expensive for the rest of the world.

It's also possible that products we produce to EU standards would no longer be recognised as being compliant and so we wouldn't be allowed to export them at all any more. That is completely out of our control and up to the EU to decide.

Currently its equal because no tariffs are paid either way so customers in any EU country can always buy wherever is cheapest, good competition.

It staggers me how many people have such strong opinions with such a minimal understanding.

Are you suggesting we pay countries to buy our products from us? Where is this money coming from?

[gm_gm]

If it were as simple as that all the world would have great trade deals, but the reality is much more complicated and some countries end up with much better deals than others.

If we leave with no deal on WTO terms then those countries will still be able to sell us their cars its just that we would have to pay 10% extra in tariffs (things get more expensive).

The people in those countries would also pay a 10% tariff on such imports. For some products such as dairy the tariffs are as much as 35% extra.

So it would hurt our exports as everything would suddenly become more expensive for people buying in other countries and they'd probably look to buy locally more often.

Our government can end the import tariffs but it can't just do it for the EU countries it would have to do it the same for all WTO countries.

So its difficult, if we have the tariffs one way its bad for british businesses as imports are cheap and competitive, and exports become more expensive for the rest of the world.

It's also possible that products we produce to EU standards would no longer be recognised as being compliant and so we wouldn't be allowed to export them at all any more. That is completely out of our control and up to the EU to decide.

Currently its equal because no tariffs are paid either way so customers in any EU country can always buy wherever is cheapest, good competition.

It staggers me how many people have such strong opinions with such a minimal understanding.

Are you suggesting we pay countries to buy our products from us? Where is this money coming from?

Merry Christmas John