Reply With QuoteHmm, so nobody has got an answer then? Thought not 😕Originally Posted by mellowmiller
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[QUOTE=KerrAvon;39066985] Dealing with your numbered points:
1. For the reasons that I have set out ad nauseum, I suspect that the withdrawal deal on the table is the best we are going to get. It hurt the EU to offer UK access to the customs union, whilst scrapping the CAP and CFP and ending free movement. I doubt if they will give more.
Again, I must point out that it’s a withdrawal deal not a future relationship deal that is currently on the table – the EU isn’t going to be talking about the detail of a future relationship until after we have left, hence the need for a transition period and backstop. And when they do start talking it will take time, not least because at that point individual EU states are going to be looking to include bits that specifically benefit their interests.
You aren’t being asked to buy a future relationship, because it hasn’t been discussed other than in vague terms. This as much as you are getting at the moment:
https://assets.publishing.service.go...lationship.pdf
2. I will have no more say over what Parliament ultimately agrees by way of a permanent new relationship with the EU than I do over whether the withdrawal deal is accepted. I doubt that the deal you describe would get through Parliament. QUOTE]
In response to your responses:
1. Why do you think that it hurts the EU to keep the CU arrangements in place over the transition period? I don't think that there was any danger of an end to that, by nature it is facilitating a transition.
In what way have the EU agreed to scrap CAP, CFP and end free movement, as you claim here? I've noticed the government are claiming this to be the case, but where does it state this to be the case in the agreement thus far? I've gone through the document you linked to but can't see this?
2. You claim powerlessness, and that you have no say in any part of future proceedings. Why so passive? It's true that your party are blackmailing us with 'This Deal or No Deal' but that just isn't the case. But lot's of us are standing up to it and encouraging our MPs to reject it until we see a clear future commitment to protecting a) the economy via the CU and b) protection of our workers rights and c) protection of the environment. I personally do not care that this will involve compromise over free movement and ECJ - simply as I don't trust May, and most certainly not Mogg et al to protect these rights in the event of our detachment from the EU. You may doubt that this type of deal would get through parliament - but would any? Why not fight for our type of deal as opposed to capitulation.
I don't doubt for a second that should the EU get a sense that this type of deal was on the cards via a change of UK negotiating team, be it via general election or a wish from the public that they wanted a 2nd referendum (as this was seen as the preferred outcome in recent polling when compared to May's deal or No Deal, the EU would give us the time required to reach a new deal or vote to end the deal if the public had the option of May's Deal/No Deal/Remain.
I think however that there is a danger if May falls and the Tories elect a hard Brexiteer, who rip up the deal and ask the EU to renegotiate. I think that the EU would walk away at that point as there would be no point even starting. I concede that is a danger. Starmer seems to be anticipating that: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit. This would be a good outcome and allow parliament (and us if it comes to that) to vote without a loaded gun pointing at our own heads.
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Hmm, so nobody has got an answer then? Thought not 😕
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Sorry Mellow - missed that post and it's a good question. I'm not hugely confident that a 2nd referendum would overturn the first, but the decision would at least be an informed one. It could be between: 1) May's deal or whatever modification is made of it 2) No deal and revert to WTO 3) Remain
If the public vote for 1 as they are satisfied that May has achieved enough for their vote then absolutely happy with that. If they vote 2 with full realisation of possible economic consequences, then I can't argue with that either. If it's 3, then that would also be fair as people have much more idea now what the different variations of Leave/No Deal look like and may wish to change their mind.
All looks like a more informed democratic decision to me, if our elected politicians can't agree on a deal themselves.
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Yep. I think at least people will be more informed now before voting again if there was to be another referendum . Can't help feeling the last one was all a bit knee jerk stirred up by the likes of Farage and Johnson, On hindsight perhaps there should always have been 2 referendums planned if the vote was to come out of the EU ie first referendum as it was, 2nd if you vote for us to come out you will get another vote to decide if you are happy with the arrangements for coming out or summat on those lines.
Another point I would make is that I can't help feeling that we should now be aware of what exactly will happen if there is no deal. All we get is some vague mention of WTO rules which mean as much to me as many EU rules. Arguably we should have a vote on that before we come out of the EU.
As my old mum would say "We're in a right bloody mess now...".
Interesting times politically but the worry is the outcome might be disastrous yet.
It'll be summat to tell ya grandkids about you young uns! Its a case of you were there when it all happened.It could be then you might tell em I wish I hadn't voted the way I did!
Last edited by rolymiller; 19-11-2018 at 03:29 PM.
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No need to apologise and you make some good points about people being better informed now although there's still clearly a lot we don't know.
I don't think you can just qualify the "Leave" questions without doing the same for "Remain" (I'm not sure what that would be though!).
I only asked the question because there seems to be a confident assumption by those who are asking for a second referendum that the original vote will be overturned. I'm not so sure and think it would be quite close again. Admittedly it's only anecdotal but I know a few people who voted "remain" who would now vote leave because of what they describe as the arrogant, bullying tactics of the EU negotiators. Equally I know of people who voted "leave" but would now change their mind because they think our negotiators have been inept.
Happy days!
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Just how would it be an informed one? Nobody would have a clue what they are voting for because nothing has been decided as yet.
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The way the land lays at the moment nobody has a clue what the final deal could end up to be so for me I would rather just get out and then work from there. And you are dead wrong about not needing us because they do and without our funding the EU is only going down.
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Agree there are big ramifications for the EU if we come out. If we do do well other nations will want to copy and come out themselves that's why the EU is making it difficult for us as a warning to others who might want to do the same.
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The German economy is doing badly, make no mistake they need us.
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True that we don't know the final deal, we only have the sparse outline on the 7 pages. But that gives us enough info to see the direction May wants to travel, along with all verbal arguments from her statements. We could balance that alongside the more widely researched implications of exiting to No Deal, and Remain. Much more informed than 2016
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