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Thread: O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

  1. #1
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    O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

    ...cabinet meeting now to approve final draft...

    Think it will get through the cabinet but there's no way it will get through the commons.

    can see this going to another referendum mi sen.

    Can't see May lasting much longer if she sells the tories/ country down the river.

    Lets hope somebody has got the uk a lifeboat if it all goes tits up.

    Interesting times worrever side you are on.
    Last edited by CAMiller; 19-11-2018 at 06:59 AM.

  2. #2
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    She's got to go. A staunch Remainer she should never have been leading the Brexit process. She's listened to the London opinion, renegued on her election Brexit promises and let down the majority who voted to leave. If this "deal" goes through we will remain slaves to the corrupt capitalist EU and without a vote to boot. Can see an imminent election especially with the Labour Party's Brexit tactics being solely geared to bringing down the Government.

  3. #3
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    Think there could very well be an election cant see DUP being chuffed about the Irish situation and they are the party who are keeping the tories in power.In a way this was always gonna happen its all been very predictable.
    Last edited by rolymiller; 14-11-2018 at 05:03 PM.

  4. #4
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    The deal should be "were going and that's that" **** you all.

  5. #5
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    What’s point on voting for a party when all they want to do is ask us to vote every time they want to wipe their asses

  6. #6
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    Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was introduced by the EU to ensure that the European Union controlled any potential exit of a member state and gave it the power to put such obstacles in the way any of member wishing to leave that they might change their mind and would certainly put off anyone else who might think of leaving. It beggars belief that a UK government would be stupid enough to invoke Article 50 but that ignorance of EU matters and control over our sovereignty blighted this government and probably all of its predecessors.

    The second major strategic error of the government was to give control of the withdrawal plans to the civil servants in Whitehall. The very organisations that for the last two generations have known nothing other than this method of lawmaking coming from Brussels. The government gave the impression that nothing was being done to prepare for withdrawal but right from the very beginning around 200 civil servants were involved in the negotiations with Brussels. Many of whom have worked their entire working lives implementing directives from Brussels into UK law. They are the very last people who should be employed to unscramble the mess they have created over the last 40 years or so.

    What the government should have done was to ignore Article 50 and advise the EU that we would revoke the European Communities Act of 1972 which gives EU law precedence over UK law and the Houses of Parliament.

    We should then have said to them:

    1. We have our sovereignty back. We can make our own laws.
    2. We have our Supreme Court back. The European Court of Justice can no longer override decisions taken by British Courts.
    3. We are out of the Customs Union. We can make our own trade deals with the rest of the world in particular America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India and all the countries in the Commonwealth.
    4. We are out of the single market. Only those multinational companies who wish to export to the EU will be bound by your rules. The other 90% or so of our economy will abide by rules made by our own parliament.
    5. We are out of the Common Fisheries Policy. We get our fish back; we will set the rules about who can fish in our waters.
    6. We are out of the Common Agricultural Policy. That absurd system of having the same farming policy covering the damp plains of Northern Europe and the arid ones of the South and everywhere in between. We will make our own farming policy.
    7. We will control our own borders. We will decide who is allowed to settle in our country.

    Then we should have said to them "That is what we have gained by leaving the EU. Now let us talk about things that might be mutually beneficial to us both when we leave.

    "You mention a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. There will be no border other than what already exists."

    The sad fact is that any 'deal' arranged by our government will water down or even eliminate our gains from leaving the EU that I mentioned above.

    Someone recently asked "Who would you prefer to negotiate our withdrawal from the EU Theresa May or Henry the VIII?"
    Last edited by Muchthemillersson; 14-11-2018 at 08:08 PM. Reason: Duplicated word

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLadonOS View Post
    The deal should be "were going and that's that" **** you all.
    The problem with the 'no deal' scenario is that I don't think there is a significant national mandate for it. Of the 52% of people who voted Leave, I think that a good % of them wanted a deal, or at least expected a deal to be done that didn't leave us in danger of a significant economic hit. So the direction forward needs to take into account the wishes of the 48% that still live here that wanted to remain but lost, as well as the x% (who knows?!) of Leave voters that voted expecting a deal (as Davies and others indicated that this would be easy) and would not want to risk a financial hit to their prices or jobs. (I agree that there was/is scaremongering here from Remainers (many of whom are genuinely scared for their businesses and jobs), but surely we have to agree that leaving is a significant economic risk - hardened Leavers are willing to take this but many don't in my opinion).

    The only deal that I think can be called democratic for our country is one that satisfies the most people who live and work here. I totally accept that many people in the leave vote want a hard Brexit/no deal but I don't think they are in any way the majority of them. Or that the majority of people who voted Leave are willing to take such an economic risk.

    Just a though: I wonder what a 'people's vote' that consisted of two options: May's 'deal' or 'no deal' with no option for Remain on the card?? Might that (taking Remain out of the options as that option was nullified in the original vote) might be the most democratic way of deciding if parliament can't (or we don't want them to!). Probably too much of a ball ache though!

    I suspect that May will push this out, resist the flak, and over the next couple of months just grind her opponents and the public into acceptance just to get the damn thing over with!

    Ramble over...

  8. #8
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    From the outset, regardless how all us oiks voted, the negotiations have only been carried out with the tory party interests in mind, and frankly it stinks to high heaven.....

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muchthemillersson View Post
    Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was introduced by the EU to ensure that the European Union controlled any potential exit of a member state and gave it the power to put such obstacles in the way any of member wishing to leave that they might change their mind and would certainly put off anyone else who might think of leaving. It beggars belief that a UK government would be stupid enough to invoke Article 50 but that ignorance of EU matters and control over our sovereignty blighted this government and probably all of its predecessors.

    The second major strategic error of the government was to give control of the withdrawal plans to the civil servants in Whitehall. The very organisations that for the last two generations have known nothing other than this method of lawmaking coming from Brussels. The government gave the impression that nothing was being done to prepare for withdrawal but right from the very beginning around 200 civil servants were involved in the negotiations with Brussels. Many of whom have worked their entire working lives implementing directives from Brussels into UK law. They are the very last people who should be employed to unscramble the mess they have created over the last 40 years or so.

    What the government should have done was to ignore Article 50 and advise the EU that we would revoke the European Communities Act of 1972 which gives EU law precedence over UK law and the Houses of Parliament.

    We should then have said to them:

    1. We have our sovereignty back. We can make our own laws.
    2. We have our Supreme Court back. The European Court of Justice can no longer override decisions taken by British Courts.
    3. We are out of the Customs Union. We can make our own trade deals with the rest of the world in particular America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India and all the countries in the Commonwealth.
    4. We are out of the single market. Only those multinational companies who wish to export to the EU will be bound by your rules. The other 90% or so of our economy will abide by rules made by our own parliament.
    5. We are out of the Common Fisheries Policy. We get our fish back; we will set the rules about who can fish in our waters.
    6. We are out of the Common Agricultural Policy. That absurd system of having the same farming policy covering the damp plains of Northern Europe and the arid ones of the South and everywhere in between. We will make our own farming policy.
    7. We will control our own borders. We will decide who is allowed to settle in our country.

    Then we should have said to them "That is what we have gained by leaving the EU. Now let us talk about things that might be mutually beneficial to us both when we leave.

    "You mention a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. There will be no border other than what already exists."

    The sad fact is that any 'deal' arranged by our government will water down or even eliminate our gains from leaving the EU that I mentioned above.

    Someone recently asked "Who would you prefer to negotiate our withdrawal from the EU Theresa May or Henry the VIII?"

    Good points well made.

    But if I was a EU leader, by nature prioritising the health and well being of the EU project, and the shared ease of trade by all within the EU community from which we currently benefit, why would I offer any kind of favourable trade deal to a country that simply walked out of it's obligations (as well as benefits) and wanted to gain the benefits of world free trade deals as well as a good free trade deal with the EU? Surely if they gave us such a deal, then all the remaining EU countries would walk out too and = the end of the EU project.

    By nature of EU project preservation (which by the way is of general benefit to participating members), the EU will not make it favourable for countries leaving (especially in your suggested Henry 8th manner) even if that means them making a loss on whatever trade deal they all willing to eventually offer us.

    It seems fantasist to me to expect us to be able to walk away from the EU (especially in the manner you suggest) and them to offer us a good deal. It was never going to happen. They don't have the motivation to do so and can afford to take a financial hit of their own to secure the EU project.

    I think the only option is a compromise (which is always going to disappoint most people) or no deal (which most people are not willing to risk). That seems to be what May has provided. Could she have done better? Probably. But people will still be unhappy.

  10. #10
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    You're quite right Raging, the EU is beset with its own problems and it certainly won't want to give the impression to other members that there is some sort of panacea to be gained by countries leaving the EU. More than anything they have to maintain the sanctity of the Customs Union. That is the way that all the German states came together before the formation of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1870. They see the success of that customs union and are convinced that is the way that the countries of Europe can be brought together into single state so you can see the horror they feel that not having a hard border in Ireland breeches the sanctity of their customs union. Our negotiators should see that is THEIR major weakness not ours.

    Another issue that we don't seem to be facing is that we have a trade deficit with the EU of £80 billion per annum. We buy from them £80 billion more goods than they buy from us EVERY year. That means two things. One is that it is a substantial export of British jobs into the EU that our politicians should be seeking to reverse by bringing our trade with the EU back into balance.

    The other one is one of simple arithmetic. Let's say you are a household and you chronically spend more than you earn every year. What happens? You have a deficit on your income account and it has to be made good from your capital account. First your savings go; then you borrow; then you sell your assets. It's just the same with countries. If you perpetually buy more from overseas than you sell you have to borrow money, then you have to sell assets to make up the cash flow. There are only so many Premier League football clubs, water companies, gas companies, electricity companies, London properties and so on. Eventually there will be nothing left. What next? Whatever next? The government MUST take back control of our trade policy and bring our EU exports back into line with our imports as indeed they are with the rest of the world.

    The Henry the VIII was very much tongue in cheek and what I outlined in my previous post was not a suggestion that we simply walk away, it was a statement of where our negotiators should have started from - that is what our people voted for, that is what we have, now let's discuss the many, many areas that our affairs are intertwined and seek arrangements for our mutual benefit.

  11. #11
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    Esther McVey rumoured to be resigning from the cabinet , possibly tomorrow , no loss there then .

    10 other members signed the deal off but didn't like it , possibly because it doesn't matter anyway as it won't get through parliament .

    Corbyn and May meeting right now , feck knows what that's about , Corbyn hasn't a clue either , Starmer may have been her better opposition man as he actually knows Labour's position , mind you he's the only one that does .

    DUP dont like it , SNP don't like it , remainers don't like it , brexiters don't like it .

    Humiliating defeat for May when it gets voted down I guess .

    Tory whips might flip a few rebels with the it's this or a marxist government line but it possibly still won't be enough .

    Can't see her surviving much longer to be honest , untenable position .

    What next ?

    Who knows , if the DUP walk away from the supply and confidence deal then that weakens the tory government even more .

    A General Election ?

    I don't think anyone will command a majority , The DUP won't back up the Tories and it's hard to see anyone siding with Labour whilst ever Corbyn is leader .

    It aint good chaps .

  12. #12
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    She will ' blag ' it through with a little help from Moggy......don't start creaming your pants just yet.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by CASPER-64-FRANK View Post
    She will ' blag ' it through with a little help from Moggy......don't start creaming your pants just yet.
    I think Mogg is more likely to be walking around parliament right now with a shotgun and a number of henchmen ready to shoot her on sight .

  14. #14
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    Tories called the referendum....

    Tories set up the framework and actual question of the referendum...

    Tories said they'd get the best deal for the UK...

    Tories have been in fighting for two years on the type of brexit....

    Tories have told us consistently that we will get the best deal possible....

    Tories have just given us a deal that is woefully short of the promises they have consistently made....

    Tories are now going to dump the PM, who even though she's a tory and my enemy, has had this dumped on her by Cameron, a coward of the highest order...

    Tories will dump the prime minister shortly, which will probably mean that parliament won't get to vote on this deal anyway, a new tory prime minister will be chosen....by an unelected committee of out of date, out of touch neanderthals, Boris Johnson anyone???

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    Neanderthals really?

    That's your level of political debate?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by great_fire View Post
    Neanderthals really?

    That's your level of political debate?
    How would you describe the 1922 committee?

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by millmoormagic View Post
    Tories called the referendum....

    Tories set up the framework and actual question of the referendum...

    Tories said they'd get the best deal for the UK...

    Tories have been in fighting for two years on the type of brexit....

    Tories have told us consistently that we will get the best deal possible....

    Tories have just given us a deal that is woefully short of the promises they have consistently made....

    Tories are now going to dump the PM, who even though she's a tory and my enemy, has had this dumped on her by Cameron, a coward of the highest order...

    Tories will dump the prime minister shortly, which will probably mean that parliament won't get to vote on this deal anyway, a new tory prime minister will be chosen....by an unelected committee of out of date, out of touch neanderthals, Boris Johnson anyone???
    Aye I've no problem with Boris MMM , if you are a Labour man you can see the long game advantages .

    It keeps the tories nice and split because a significant number of them dislike him intensely .

    To tell the truth I'm more concerned where we are heading , JC has done a good job putting the party back to what it was originally set up to do but to win an election with a majority concerns me and I don't believe he can achieve it .

    I'm personally swiming against a bit of a tide at the moment and speaking out get Starmer in the leadership game , I'm not popular , feck em anyway , what's new .

    In my opinion the very best Corbyn can do is win with no majority but Starmer could win comfortably if he takes the gig minus Abbott and McConnell and a slight shift to the centre and I do say slight , lets not go down the Blair route .

    JC has done a remarkable job to bring the party back to its roots but that's not going to be enough as it wasn't for Kinnock who went the opposite way and fell short .

    Starmer is the acceptable and electable face of centre left politics .

    Put him up against Johnson and we'll have a comfortable majority in my opinion , Starmer actually has a brain which is a distinct advantage .

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by millmoormagic View Post
    How would you describe the 1922 committee?
    "Old fashioned" maybe?

    I doubt there's any of them as thick as Corbyn or Abbott though.

    Neanderthals get a bad rap anyway, humans who interbred with neanderthals (Asians, Europeans) actually have higher average IQs than those who didn't (sub-Saharan Africans).

  19. #19
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    ragingpup is right. The deal is a compromise and a compromise was always going to be necessary, because the version of Brexit in which we voted to leave one day and then simply walked away the next without consequences was always a fantasy.

    The EU have made substantial compromises even though they held most of the cards in the negotiations.

    It seems unlikely that the deal will be approved by Parliament - the 'meaningful vote' isn't actually binding on the government, but Parliament would need to pass the legislation required to support the deal. Much will turn upon how many MPs of all parties will shrink away from the dangers of a no deal Brexit and vote with the government.

    Even if the DUP don't support the government on the deal, there is no reason to suppose that they would walk away from the confidence and supply deal and risk a general election. It is inconceivable that they would risk allowing Corbyn and his Republican sympathising chums into power.

    I think it unlikely that May will survive a defeat of the deal in Parliament. I think it possible that she will resign even if she gets it through - it has been a thankless task to navigate Brexit.

    Boris Johnson will not be the next leader of the Conservatives - he is seen as being divisive and disloyal. Disloyalty is never forgiven in that party.

    I gave you Teresa May when she was 20/1 for the job. I give you Dominic Raab at 10/1.

    I doubt whether Starmer will be the next Labour leader, despite animal's best efforts. He's a Blairite. He would be very good, however.
    Last edited by KerrAvon; 15-11-2018 at 06:41 AM.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by millmoormagic View Post
    From the outset, regardless how all us oiks voted, the negotiations have only been carried out with the tory party interests in mind, and frankly it stinks to high heaven.....
    Whereas this may be true I'd be a lot more comfortable if I knew what the Labour Party's policy was on Brexit. Corbyn says one thing, Starmer says another and the party appears to be in as much disarray as the Tories.
    Not good at all ☹

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