Originally Posted by Scanlon's Hatrick
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I have to say, if the shortlist is Hurst, Heckingbottom and Ardley then it only strengthens my belief that it has to be Paul Hurst. The only way I'd even start to look at the other two is if Hurst turned the job down.
Hurst had an excellent record at Boston, Grimsby and Shrewbury, in each case taking the clubs over at a low point and turning them around in convincing style. His win ratio of 49% over 500+ games shows real consistency. I pretty much disregard his spell at Ipswich, given that the rot was setting in there over the past two seasons and he was only given 15 games anyway.
Paul Heckingbottom - the least experienced candidate by some distance - was given an equally raw deal at Leeds, so I wouldn't judge him on that spell, but his only other club was Barnsley where he got the job after a decent caretaker spell and did alright helping them tread water in the Championship, but I'm not sure he's fully proven himself in the way Hurst has in three different club scenarios. Do we truly know enough about Heckingbottom to be certain he's a good manager?
Ardley has more than 300 games as manager to his credit, albeit his original appointment would have been a sentimental choice to a degree after being a Wimbledon player. You can't fault him for consolidating their League Two position and gradually building a promotion-winning side on a small budget, but was it a case of operating in a particular environment that suited him and where the fan base were always likely to be especially supportive and patient? Would he get the same patience at Notts County? I think if he had done the same with at least one other club then I would say yes, he's proven his credentials and may be on a par with Hurst, but we only have the evidence of that one spell.
Plus, it has to be said, Heckingbottom and Ardley have losing records overall, whereas Hurst has a winning one over a greater number of games. It's fair to say Hurst was expected to win most of his games at Grimsby, but as a part-time Boston follower I can say there was nothing guaranteed when he took over there, and I don't think anyone expected the turnaround he achieved at Shrewsbury. Anyone who can make a star player of Alex Rodman in League One must have a bit about them!
Hurst for me. 100%.
