O/T:- Is Brexit a dead duck?

[BigFatPie]

It wasn't my comment but remind me again of the anti establishment firebrands who led the Leave campaign?

Well that big believer in the democratic process Vladimir Putin thinks we shouldn’t have a second referendum, so does he count?

[sidders]

Do people really think that Brexit will mean we build a massive wall around our Island so no immigrants can come in? Immigration will continue to happen and they will continue to contribute to the UK economy as well as services like the NHS. None EU immigration is still around double that of people from the EU. So what will change?

The numbers will change. I confidently predict that the NHS, the market gardeners and the care home owners will experience grim times.

[Elite_Pie]

Says him with his Trump opinion, that must be fact because EP says so.

Think you need to do some reading on Obama's past. Try the Mau Mau uprising and the link to his family.
Also his dislike of the man who put it down and his anti colonialism rant. ( ironic really, seeing as the USA is a former colony)

So no, to invite Obama over here to tell us how to vote, was an absolute farcical decision.
Like I said earlier. Had it been Trump invited over, you/Sid/Fat boy would have been frothing at the mouth.

What either Trump or Obama had to say about Brexit would have as much impact on the way I voted as misleading slogans regarding NHS funding on the side of the bus or predictions that the economy would crash. The point I was making was the pathetic way you repeatedly search google for any clip that suits your agenda then post it on here as proof you are right. You've even stooped to posting links from white supremacist websites to 'prove your point'. At least that showed your true colours.

[magpie_mania]

... well illustrated Mark45. You don't mind when the game is played by the same rules but our naive, liberal, thick elite are too comfortable in their pigstyes to bother to try and understand or care. They fight like hell to avoid change.
I have to smile at the well heeled from the south-east having their Crissy hols disrupted by the Gatwick drones. Perhaps we should send a few drones over to Paris and Berlin airports to make life a little uncomfortable there too.

This is really nothing to smile at. It's not just 'the well heeled from the south-east' who are suffering though is it?

Comments like those in this post make me think that it's based on envy and jealousy.

[i961pie]

Can't let this one go I'm afraid. The NHS are already having recruitment problems because of Brexit, and this is not unskilled jobs, its Doctors, Nurses and other highly skilled workers.

I'll tell you some of the reasons Brexit is bad for business:
1) The impact on just one sector, Food - the EU is our biggest export market for British food products. Many food products need to be sold relatively close to the UK, e.g. fresh food. A lot of manufacturers are on very tight margins. At the moment an "export" to another EU country is virtually like selling in another part of the UK, with minimal checks at the borders. Under any form of Brexit that has us outside the single market there will be a lot more checks and paperwork. This adds significantly to both time and cost. Then there are the tariffs, world trade terms are a minimum of 2.5% and some foods may be much higher, this is an additional cost to the manufacturer. Many food businesses have low margins, and this could be all or most of their profit. This is without taking account of any possible disruption at ports.
2) Uncertainty: its currently almost impossible to plan. For example, I currently use lots of suppliers in other EU countries. As this is services rather than goods, I'm not affected by any problems with customs after Brexit. However I currently don't know whether they will have to start charging me VAT in March, a 20% + (as rates vary) potential increase in cost. This could get worse if (as is likely) the Pound slides further against the Euro.

These are just a few examples. Brexit is a disaster for the UK economy. Leading industrialists backing it tend to be people with something to gain, like Dyson, who does most of his manufacturing outside the UK, and the EU, and will benefit if we have less tariffs.

Brexit is a construct of the Tory right, built on lies and undeliverable promises. Witness the £350m a week for the NHS - the same NHS which is struggling to get staff.

Incidently, the comments above about saving ourselves £37 billion with a no deal are not true either. Did anyone notice the Government committing an extra £2 Billion to no deal preparations yesterday, this is just preparations? Brexiters are strangely quiet about Brexit costs. There are also EU payments which are legally required. Obligations we have already committed to. Not paying is a bit like unilaterally deciding to not pay your mortgage, don't be surprised when the bailiffs arrive. If we just stopped paying it would trash the value of the pound overnight as we would suddenly become a massive credit risk.

I think that most sensible people realise there will be brexit costs regarding having to pay the EU what we owe, but this won't go on for ever. It is in the long term where we should benefit.

[crazyfists]

I think that most sensible people realise there will be brexit costs regarding having to pay the EU what we owe, but this won't go on for ever. It is in the long term where we should benefit.

I see this bandied about all the time, how will it be better in the long term? This is trotted out again and again by Brexiteers but no one says how. How will be be better off by not trading with our biggest customer? How do you know other countries outside the EU are queuing up to make deals with us? All I've seen is May going cap in hand and being fobbed off. In this future where it'll work out better will we be better off than we would have been in the EU? No one knows, I don't know, we might be better off or we might be much worse off. Brexiteers can't keep saying this with no basis in fact.

[i961pie]

I see this bandied about all the time, how will it be better in the long term? This is trotted out again and again by Brexiteers but no one says how. How will be be better off by not trading with our biggest customer? How do you know other countries outside the EU are queuing up to make deals with us? All I've seen is May going cap in hand and being fobbed off. In this future where it'll work out better will we be better off than we would have been in the EU? No one knows, I don't know, we might be better off or we might be much worse off. Brexiteers can't keep saying this with no basis in fact.

.

First of all I was talking about how much money we had to pay the EU and how long we have to pay it in response to Magpie Mike's post. And I agree no one does know what will happen and that also includes all the people who are spreading all the scare stories day in day out.

[ncfcog]

I see this bandied about all the time, how will it be better in the long term? This is trotted out again and again by Brexiteers but no one says how. How will be be better off by not trading with our biggest customer? How do you know other countries outside the EU are queuing up to make deals with us? All I've seen is May going cap in hand and being fobbed off. In this future where it'll work out better will we be better off than we would have been in the EU? No one knows, I don't know, we might be better off or we might be much worse off. Brexiteers can't keep saying this with no basis in fact.

Thing is we already trade with just about every other country in the world anyway and if Brexit actually happens we will still trade with those countries that remain in the EU, none of this will change.

The difference is we currently have a free trade agreement with the EU where goods and services can be purchased and sold without import export levies and restrictions.

I already have dealings with customers and suppliers outside of the EU and other than having a bit more paperwork to do and having to wait until my next vat return to claim back import duties etc it really isn't that much of a hassle in comparison, especially as it is business I cannot turn down because the market for my goods and services within the UK and EU is shrinking.

* People will still buy from the UK if the product and price is right.
* Tourism in the UK will not suffer as many tourists are from countries outside the EU
* Visiting EU countries for holidays will be no more of a pain than it is to go to Disney Land in America
* Manufacturers and producers in EU countries will still desperately want to sell their goods into the UK
* Whichever way you look at it immigration is currently an issue in the UK for a wide range of reasons relating to jobs, welfare, crime, security etc.

MagpieMike mentioned he buys 'services' from other countries in the EU, I've asked what's stopping him from buying these services from the UK? I would hazard a guess because it is cheaper for him to buy from these other countries. I liken this to buying a hammer online rather than buying it from your local independently owned hardware store because it will save you a couple of quid. We all know who the loser is in that scenario and it's not the overseas online retailer!

I have a question: Does every citizen in this country have a duty to do his or her bit in the rebuilding of our economy? I understand that it's often easier said than done but shouldn't we try and buy local, try and buy British and holiday in the UK at least once a year in order to assist in making local UK businesses profitable again, creating more of the better paid jobs everyone is screaming for. Alternatively should we just sit there and do nothing safe in the knowledge our friends on the continent are guiding us by the hand to the promised land whilst we continue to make their economies flourish at the expense of our own?

[magpie_mania]

.

First of all I was talking about how much money we had to pay the EU and how long we have to pay it in response to Magpie Mike's post. And I agree no one does know what will happen and that also includes all the people who are spreading all the scare stories day in day out.

The difficulty of course is deciding what is 'fake news' and what are the genuine concerns and honest professional opinion of so many experts. I honestly do not believe that all those who are saying that there will be grave consequences of a no deal scenario are just making it up. Then again, those who say how bad it will be to stay are probably not making everything up either.

[MagpieMike]

MagpieMike “ Uncertainty: its currently almost impossible to plan. For example, I currently use lots of suppliers in other EU countries. As this is services rather than goods, I'm not affected by any problems with customs after Brexit. However I currently don't know whether they will have to start charging me VAT in March, a 20% + (as rates vary) potential increase in cost. This could get worse if (as is likely) the Pound slides further against the Euro.”

Can I ask, what services do you purchase from the EU that can’t be purchased from within the UK and why? Genuinely interested.

Also, you can claim the vat back, assuming you are vat registered?

Translation Services, and translators work into their native language - so are usually in country. For example if I need up to date ideomatic French, a French native who has been living 5 years in the UK won't be as accurate as one living in France. We are VAT registered, so in theory can reclaim any VAT - currently EU supplies are zero rated, the trouble is there is no way of know what will happen with no deal.

Just seen your second comment about price. No its not always about buying the cheapest. We live in a globalised world. Many of our exporters are also importers, so for Britain to do well internationally, we need the right trading relationships. Brexiters think this is best outside the EU, I don't agree. For example the US is already our biggest trading partner, that won't change with Brexit or a US trade deal. The worry of a US deal is that we will be desperate for an agreement, and will swallow any US requirements, their food regulation really worries me, things like GM crops. Not in our interest. We will get a better deal with the US by being part of the EU, which is in a much better negotiating position because of its size, and is very concerned about things like GM crops.