O/T:- Is Brexit a dead duck?

[drillerpie]

Sorry, you're right, it isn't fact because it hasn't happened, but in reality if it came to that then it would be the 'truth of the matter', which is what I think I meant to say.

What makes you so sure about that?

[ncfcog]

What makes you so sure about that?

Of the 27 EU countries that trade directly with the UK, 23 of them sell more goods and services to us than we do to them. It would be financial suicide for many of those countries to risk that revenue by playing silly buggers with the UK.

It is also worth noting that if you remove the UK from the EU, exports to the UK by EU countries would be 16% of all export trade, which is exactly the same as EU export trade to the USA. Surely any sensible EU member would not want to jeopardise a significant part of their countries income by building barriers with the UK after Brexit?

[drillerpie]

Of the 27 EU countries that trade directly with the UK, 23 of them sell more goods and services to us than we do to them. It would be financial suicide for many of those countries to risk that revenue by playing silly buggers with the UK.

It is also worth noting that if you remove the UK from the EU, exports to the UK by EU countries would be 16% of all export trade, which is exactly the same as EU export trade to the USA. Surely any sensible EU member would not want to jeopardise a significant part of their countries income by building barriers with the UK after Brexit?

This is the old argument that because Germany sells us a lot of cars Merkel will give us favourable conditions, but I think that has been disproved. In my opinion that is because if that happens the single market will disintegrate and they will actually lose money overall. I think these countries are prepared to take the hit in order to protect the single market.

You mention that EU trade with the UK will be worth as much as EU trade with the US so they won't impose tariffs, but they do impose tariffs on imports from the US.

[ncfcog]

You mention that EU trade with the UK will be worth as much as EU trade with the US so they won't impose tariffs, but they do impose tariffs on imports from the US.

Yes that's correct, as do we. I buy and sell with the US, you have to know what you're doing in order to keep on top of not just the tariffs but the whole import/export process. I didn't say they wouldn't impose tariffs, my point is some people seem to think that the UK will come to a grinding halt after Brexit, that all trade will stop etc etc, that's just ridiculous, it is still in the interest of every country in the EU that currently exports to the UK to continue to have some kind of trade agreement with the UK. That may well involve tariffs but they should be commensurate for both parties.

I just feel that the scaremongering is actually doing more damage to the UK economy at the moment than Brexit itself.

[drillerpie]

Yes that's correct, as do we. I buy and sell with the US, you have to know what you're doing in order to keep on top of not just the tariffs but the whole import/export process. I didn't say they wouldn't impose tariffs, my point is some people seem to think that the UK will come to a grinding halt after Brexit, that all trade will stop etc etc, that's just ridiculous, it is still in the interest of every country in the EU that currently exports to the UK to continue to have some kind of trade agreement with the UK. That may well involve tariffs but they should be commensurate for both parties.

I just feel that the scaremongering is actually doing more damage to the UK economy at the moment than Brexit itself.

Well yes I was obviously including the UK in that as we're in the EU .

Could it be that your business is pretty much Brexit proof so you see it as no big deal whereas if you're working in a sector that will be hit by tariffs (food and drink for example), or working for a company that wants to be sure it will be based in the single market then what kind of deal we get is a serious problem? And they perhaps don't have the luxury of being able to say '**** it let's leave and it'll be alright on the night'.

[ncfcog]

Well yes I was obviously including the UK in that as we're in the EU .

Could it be that your business is pretty much Brexit proof so you see it as no big deal whereas if you're working in a sector that will be hit by tariffs (food and drink for example), or working for a company that wants to be sure it will be based in the single market then what kind of deal we get is a serious problem? And they perhaps don't have the luxury of being able to say '**** it let's leave and it'll be alright on the night'.

No, I can assure you that’s not the case and I’ve suffered the consequences of the last two years probably more than most.

[drillerpie]

No, I can assure you that’s not the case and I’ve suffered the consequences of the last two years probably more than most.

I'll phrase it better than I did the first time: as I understand it you do most of your business with non EU countries so hard or soft Brexit or whatever else doesn't affect you much, but the uncertainty around the outcome of the talks does have a negative effect, so you just want it resolved one way or another.

But what I'm trying to say it that there are some other business owners whose livelihoods depend not on getting any deal ASAP but on getting a good deal.

[ncfcog]

I'll phrase it better than I did the first time: as I understand it you do most of your business with non EU countries so hard or soft Brexit or whatever else doesn't affect you much, but the uncertainty around the outcome of the talks does have a negative effect, so you just want it resolved one way or another.

But what I'm trying to say it that there are some other business owners whose livelihoods depend not on getting any deal ASAP but on getting a good deal.

Sorry Driller, I misunderstood. Yes, there is some truth in that, however a good deal would of course be preferable, but that’s just not going to happen now. The uncertainty over the last couple of years has more than threatened my livelihood and that of those who rely on my business for theirs so yes anything that eases the uncertainty should, I hope improve matters, but you’re right I can see there will be others that could suffer in the short term after brexit, but then there are many others that just desperately need a resolution.

[drillerpie]

Sorry Driller, I misunderstood. Yes, there is some truth in that, however a good deal would of course be preferable, but that’s just not going to happen now. The uncertainty over the last couple of years has more than threatened my livelihood and that of those who rely on my business for theirs so yes anything that eases the uncertainty should, I hope improve matters, but you’re right I can see there will be others that could suffer in the short term after brexit, but then there are many others that just desperately need a resolution.

I see. Well best of luck Ncfcog and it was nice debating with you as usual!

[ncfcog]

I see. Well best of luck Ncfcog and it was nice debating with you as usual!

Thanks and likewise. I suppose if there is one thing we can agree on it is that the whole thing is a complete bleddy mess!