Points required to stay up

[60YearsAPie]

If it does turn out that we need to reach 47 to survive then the WDL combination of results has to be one of...........

W6 D8 L4

W7 D5 L6

W8 D2 L8

W9 D0 L9 *seems highly unlikely that we won't draw at least a few more games.

If we lose 10 then the maximum pts we can reach is 45 and again that would mean no further draws.
One of the first two combinations is the most realistic scenario to hope for but that would mean not losing more than a third of the remaining games.

I honestly can’t see we’ve got an earthly of achieving any of those combinations with the current personnel. Our only hope is that those out injured are soon available for selection plus a couple more signings.

Think I might take Mapperley’s advice.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

In spite of seeing how poor we have been, the recent game against Bury (who are now 2nd in the table) and draw away to Colchester (5th) gives me some hope that there is something in this team somewhere if we look deep enough. 1 win in 16 it's quite a bad statistic but this awful run will naturally come to an end soon. With some further signings and returning key players from injuries then we may just pick up to have our best run of the season at the business end.

We need another week where we won three games in a row!

Plus we cannot give up with 18 games remaining. Until such a time comes where we are mathematically condemned to relegation I'm not throwing the towel in.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

P.S - At the moment we are getting 0.75 points a game which means we are on course to finish on 35 points.

So we need to get at least an extra 12 points (4 wins) over the course of remaining 18 games to stand a chance of staying up. It's possible.

Yeovil, Morecombe, Port Vale (even Newport) have not won in the last five so hopefully some more teams will go on bad runs and get dragged in. But we need to help ourselves.

[slack_pie]

In spite of seeing how poor we have been, the recent game against Bury (who are now 2nd in the table) and draw away to Colchester (5th) gives me some hope that there is something in this team somewhere if we look deep enough. 1 win in 16 it's quite a bad statistic but this awful run will naturally come to an end soon. With some further signings and returning key players from injuries then we may just pick up to have our best run of the season at the business end.

We need another week where we won three games in a row!

Plus we cannot give up with 18 games remaining. Until such a time comes where we are mathematically condemned to relegation I'm not throwing the towel in.

I'm not sure I agree that the run will come to an end naturally. If the Bury and Colchester games taught us anything it's that it's like we won't win even if we dominate or go a couple of goals ahead. As NA has said on a number of occasions, this is a group of players who have forgotten how to win. They don't go out expecting to win, and when they find themselves ahead, they're as shocked as anyone.

Our only hope is players like Enzio and Hemmings coming back and hitting form, plus 2 or 3 new players who haven't yet been infected with the current squad's negativity and lack of self-belief.

[upthemaggies]

The last 18 games of 2016/17, after Hardy had just taken over and Nolan come in, we ended with a sequence of W9 D3 L6, a repeat of which would take us to 51 points, but we don't have the same sense of relief and optimism we had back then to carry us over the line.

A better comparison would be the Derry escape of 2013/14, the last 18 games of which included the 6-0 drubbing at Rotherham, much despair and Ray Trew declaring in an interview at the end of the campaign that his great hope for a brighter future was the fact we had Tyrell Waite about to break into the first team. The closing 18 record that season was W7 D2 L9, a repeat of which would take us to 44 points. Probably not enough, but if it went to the final day, who knows. It was still a pretty remarkable turnaround however, it's going to take something special. You can't give up hope, but realistically we should be preparing ourselves for a debut campaign in tier 5.

[slack_pie]

The last 18 games of 2016/17, after Hardy had just taken over and Nolan come in, we ended with a sequence of W9 D3 L6, a repeat of which would take us to 51 points, but we don't have the same sense of relief and optimism we had back then to carry us over the line.

A better comparison would be the Derry escape of 2013/14, the last 18 games of which included the 6-0 drubbing at Rotherham, much despair and Ray Trew declaring in an interview at the end of the campaign that his great hope for a brighter future was the fact we had Tyrell Waite about to break into the first team. The closing 18 record that season was W7 D2 L9, a repeat of which would take us to 44 points. Probably not enough, but if it went to the final day, who knows. It was still a pretty remarkable turnaround however, it's going to take something special. You can't give up hope, but realistically we should be preparing ourselves for a debut campaign in tier 5.

Wow, that really puts it in perspective. I really think this year we'll need around 50 points, so it looks a ridiculously tall order. It would be different if the wins we do have had come more recently, but right now it seems impossible to even start a revival. Each week it gets harder, especially as other clubs around us seem perfectly capable of picking up the odd win here and there.

Just think how different it would look if Stead had scored that penalty and we'd avoided defeat against Macc and Cambridge. Such fine lines, but they really do add up this season. The Cambridge away game is another one - Hemmings missed a sitter at 2-2 in the final minute, then they went up the other end and scored. Too many late goals conceded to remember them all.

[sidders]

There is more chance that Brexit will have a happy ending than Notts saving their bacon, i'm afraid.
Mentally, the best thing is to prepare for the worst. Obviously that's what the players are doing.

[McCullochisGod]

As I said the bookies make us 1/3 on to go down and they don't often get it wrong.

[ncfcog]

As I said the bookies make us 1/3 on to go down and they don't often get it wrong.

They had us favourites to win the league?!

[Elite_Pie]

As I said the bookies make us 1/3 on to go down and they don't often get it wrong.

They did when I got 40/1 for relegation back in August!

ps Saying 1/3 on makes no sense. It's either 1/3 or 3/1 on.