Points required to stay up

[magpie_mania]

Last week I posted that the points reqd might be low(er) this season as there were 6 teams averaging just 1 point per game or less.

However, after last week's results there are only 3 (including us of course).

Even 46 looks a long way off at the moment though!

[Mark_Ross]

Some seasons you can get really lucky, & survive with a dismal points total. I'm fairly sure this is NOT going to be one of them - everybody seems to be picking up points - except us of course.

Hence I think it's 50 points.

But our owd mates Bristol Rovers got relegated with 50 !

[queenslandpie]

Some seasons you can get really lucky, & survive with a dismal points total. I'm fairly sure this is NOT going to be one of them - everybody seems to be picking up points - except us of course.

Hence I think it's 50 points.

But our owd mates Bristol Rovers got relegated with 50 !

Yep agree. I do think we will start picking up points in March by which time it will be FAR too late.

Think we will finish on mid 40's.

Just can't see it happening that we will stay up especially with the fixtures coming up. How is this team going to get anything out of Imps and Stags when it cant beat Cambridge in front of 15,000 with 3 new players in the side.

[nw6pie]

I do think 45 points will be enough to stay up, but as things stand I can’t see us getting more than 35 and finishing 92nd. We’ve won 1 away game all season (against the team we comforted ourselves by saying were nailed on for relegation- except now they’re 3 points ahead of us); our goal difference is another point against us; and we’ve won once in 16 games (including defeats to three close rivals). All of which combines to make us about an attractive side to join as the Brexit negotiations team.

[i961pie]

Me too, but my main concern is that we'll be one of them.

I think we hit that long ago.

[slack_pie]

Great post - well researched. Let's hope it's a 15/16 season rather than a 12/13.

I'm hoping that there's a couple of teams who are still yet to hit a really bad patch of form, which will bring them into the fold - Crawley for example. The more teams in it, the better chance we have. However, it's all academic if we don't start picking up some points fast.

The thing is, the opposite seems to be happening. A few months ago, it looked like Macc were certain to finish bottom, leaving only one relegation place. Since then, both them and Cambridge have enjoyed new manager bounce, leaving only Notts in free fall.

Also, we've already played our relegation rivals at home this season - and we lost to them all. After next week, we have a tough run of games coming up that we'd struggle to gain points from even if we weren't down the bottom. Can you see us getting anything from Lincoln and Mansfield at home?

Those losses at home against Cheltenham, Macc and Cambridge will haunt us, as will Stead's penalty miss against Bury.

[LaughingMagpie]

We don't need 46 points or any other amount.

We just need 1 more point than 2 other teams

[SwalePie]

We don't need 46 points or any other amount.

We just need 1 more point than 2 other teams

I much prefer this method of calculation too.

[upthemaggies]

If it does turn out that we need to reach 47 to survive then the WDL combination of results has to be one of...........

W6 D8 L4

W7 D5 L6

W8 D2 L8

W9 D0 L9 *seems highly unlikely that we won't draw at least a few more games.

If we lose 10 then the maximum pts we can reach is 45 and again that would mean no further draws.
One of the first two combinations is the most realistic scenario to hope for but that would mean not losing more than a third of the remaining games.

[Mapperleypie]

I think I am going to forget about it all for a bit.