How easy is it to get back?

[Frigiliana Pie 1]

As I reckon there’s now a 90% chance Notts will be in the National League next season, I’ve been thinking about how long it might take to get back into the EFL. The evidence of what has happened to other clubs isn’t very encouraging.

I took a starting point of season 2002/3, which was the first year in which 2 up 2 down was in force between what are now League 2 and the National League. Since then, 29 different clubs have been relegated from League 2, 3 of which, Torquay, York and Barnet, have gone down twice.

Of these, only 4 have gone straight back up again. These were Shrewsbury (2004), Carlisle (2005), Bristol Rovers (2015) and Cheltenham (2016). Not many out of 32 relegations. The next quickest returns were by Torquay (2 seasons in 2009), Barnet (2, 2015) and Tranmere (3, 2018).

Others took longer.... Oxford (4, 2010), Exeter (5, 2008), Mansfield (5, 2013), Luton (5, 2013), Grimsby (6, 2016), Lincoln (6, 2017), Macclesfield (6, 2018), York (8, 2012) and Cambridge (9, 2014).

And of course there are those that haven’t made it back up and perhaps never will.... Kidderminster (now National League North, 14 seasons since relegation), Rushden and Diamonds (SLP, 13), Boston (NLN, 12), Wrexham (NL, 11), Chester (NLN, 10), Darlington (NLN, 9), Stockport (NLN, 8), Hereford (NLN, 7), Aldershot (NL, 6), Torquay (NLS, 5), Dagenham (NL, 3), York (NLN, 3), Hartlepool (NL, 2), Leyton Orient ((NL, 2), Barnet (NL 1) and Chesterfield (NL, 1).

Some of these, such as Darlington and Rushden, aren’t strictly speaking the same club that was relegated, but they are all close equivalents.

So if we do go down, it could take a long time to get back up again. There are some relative minnows in the list like Kidderminster and Boston who massively over achieved by ever reaching League 2 in the first place and perhaps it isn’t surprising that they haven’t come back. But there are others, with roughly the same size and fan base as Notts, who took several years - Oxford, Grimsby, Luton and Tranmere for instance. And one, Stockport, which has been in the sixth tier for several years now. In fact it’s the first time I’ve ever been able to regard Bristol Rovers as a beacon of hope!

It could be a long hard road back.

[irishpete]

Thats what I can not understand when folks say might be a good thing we go down & re build.It's fecking hard league to get out of & who is to say another bad season hey presto North divison

[i961pie]

Much depends in what AH does after we go down.

[countygump]

Thats what I can not understand when folks say might be a good thing we go down & re build.It's fecking hard league to get out of & who is to say another bad season hey presto North divison

The Cinerama league is a sand-trap. Even more so than L2. I said a few weeks ago, our only hope is if Al gets his cheque book out and that still applies, but I'm not sure it's even do-able now. As usual we've left it too late.

[youstylishmagpies]

I don't really follow the non- league. But history suggests it's going to be a long hard slog, a real grind and battle. Something our current squad lack in abundance. If wholesale changes aren't made next season, I'd expect another poor season, even relegation.

[legs77]

I think anyone who follows lower league football and keeps an eye on the non league know it will be hard to get out of.

Our players mainly lack fight...the manager imo is not the right one...the owner what more can you say about him.

The fans will probably turn up for a while but I can see gates under 3k especially midweek games on a cold November night.

I don’t have any confidence we can bounce back straight away we have a “leader” who is spending his own time getting into arguments with rival fans when his head should be on what are we going to do to improve.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

As I reckon there’s now a 90% chance Notts will be in the National League next season, I’ve been thinking about how long it might take to get back into the EFL. The evidence of what has happened to other clubs isn’t very encouraging.

I took a starting point of season 2002/3, which was the first year in which 2 up 2 down was in force between what are now League 2 and the National League. Since then, 29 different clubs have been relegated from League 2, 3 of which, Torquay, York and Barnet, have gone down twice.

Of these, only 4 have gone straight back up again. These were Shrewsbury (2004), Carlisle (2005), Bristol Rovers (2015) and Cheltenham (2016). Not many out of 32 relegations. The next quickest returns were by Torquay (2 seasons in 2009), Barnet (2, 2015) and Tranmere (3, 2018).

Others took longer.... Oxford (4, 2010), Exeter (5, 2008), Mansfield (5, 2013), Luton (5, 2013), Grimsby (6, 2016), Lincoln (6, 2017), Macclesfield (6, 2018), York (8, 2012) and Cambridge (9, 2014).

And of course there are those that haven’t made it back up and perhaps never will.... Kidderminster (now National League North, 14 seasons since relegation), Rushden and Diamonds (SLP, 13), Boston (NLN, 12), Wrexham (NL, 11), Chester (NLN, 10), Darlington (NLN, 9), Stockport (NLN, 8), Hereford (NLN, 7), Aldershot (NL, 6), Torquay (NLS, 5), Dagenham (NL, 3), York (NLN, 3), Hartlepool (NL, 2), Leyton Orient ((NL, 2), Barnet (NL 1) and Chesterfield (NL, 1).

Some of these, such as Darlington and Rushden, aren’t strictly speaking the same club that was relegated, but they are all close equivalents.

So if we do go down, it could take a long time to get back up again. There are some relative minnows in the list like Kidderminster and Boston who massively over achieved by ever reaching League 2 in the first place and perhaps it isn’t surprising that they haven’t come back. But there are others, with roughly the same size and fan base as Notts, who took several years - Oxford, Grimsby, Luton and Tranmere for instance. And one, Stockport, which has been in the sixth tier for several years now. In fact it’s the first time I’ve ever been able to regard Bristol Rovers as a beacon of hope!

It could be a long hard road back.

An excellent post and well researched. As I’ve mentioned before the problem with going out of the football league is there is only one automatic promotion place then the lottery of the playoffs. Imagine if we got to the playoffs in that league and lost and then had a season like this one. It does not bare thinking about.

To come back we would still have to go about our business in a manner that is befitting of a football league club. What I mean by that is the way in which it is run. We can’t just get relegated and then slip into the mindset of being a non-league club even though we would be. We have to believe that we can get our place back. That’s got to be the clubs core principle and philosophy. Also we will not need to sign players on big wages or long contracts. We will need to sign players who are good enough and capable enough to compete at that level. Who know what it takes to get out of that league. What we don’t want to be doing is signing players from league one and two who are on their way down. We want to be signing players who are going to take the club and themselves up to the next level. Young hungry players (with a few key experienced pros) who could ultimately develop into good League Two and even League One players over a few years.

We should have clout in non league as we will be an attractive proposition due to us being a big club at that level to get the top and best non-league players.

It would not be easy by a long shot. It would take a mountain of hard work, passion and desire. Also fan would need to have patience as history tells us it could be a number of years before we could be good enough to return.

[Frigiliana Pie 1]

I think anyone who follows lower league football and keeps an eye on the non league know it will be hard to get out.

Part of the problem is that whereas League 2 has 4 up and 2 down, The National League is 2 up and 4 down. The North and South Divisions are 2 up and 3 down.

So we’ll be going from a League whose structure is weighted in favour of success, to one which is weighted in favour of failure.

[slack_pie]

Who knows how long we'll be down there. Things can always get worse. I remember the times we got relegated from L1 to L2, I consoled myself with the fact we'd probably bounce straight back, and have fun in the process. But sure enough, we quickly got drawn into relegation fights in L2. It's what we do. I see no reason why it won't happen in the NL.

Interesting stats though. I had no idea Luton, Lincoln, Cambridge, and even Mansfield were down there for so long. It really is a case of 'out of sight, out of mind' once you go non-league.

As the previous poster said, we need to ensure we approach the first season as a L2 club would and go for a quick return. If we stick around there too long, the profile of the club will change and we'll become just another non-league club.

Right now I'm finding it hard to be optimistic about Notts' future. i was thinking yesterday that this level of suffering surely has to mean something, like it'll somehow pay off in the future and all be worth it. But I'm honestly not so sure. That's not how life, or football, works.

I think Hardy needs to come out in the coming weeks and tell the fans what his plan is, because we deserve to know.

[Woodypie]

I think Hardy will give next season a real go. He won't say so but I am sure he is planning ahead already. Clearly a massive clear out is needed. I would think Notts will keep O'Brien, Osbourne, Dennis and Kellet and ditch the rest. As far as I am aware, FFP doesn't apply in the National League. There are decent players to cherry pick from Vanarama- like Rowe and Bonne and lots of League 2 players that will switch if the price is right.

I don't think vilifying Hardy and sacking Ardley will help. They need to start planning for promotion now.