Points required update thread

[optipez]

Morecambe look likely to pick up enough points to stay up to me meaning its two from four to drop. Lose to Vale and it's two from three with us strong odds on to be one of them.
Absolutely massive game for us next week, no playing it down or getting away from it, we have to win realistically anything else is just blind hope and faith.

[ncfcog]

You were right now we are back to 5 points a drift. However I don’t think we should underestimate the quality of Newport. They would be higher in the table if it wasn’t for the cup run they had and have some typically good league two players in the team. They are a good team.

We’ve got 12 games left. We need to win half of these and draw one to get to 47 points to meet old pies target of 1.58 points a game.

This is how I think we need to be doing in each game to reach that goal and stand a chance whilst dragging others into the mix;

Port Vale (H) Win - 31 Pts
Cheltenham (A) Win - 34 Pts
Carlisle (A) Lose - 34 Pts
Morecombe (H) Win - 37 Pts
Exeter (H) - Lose 37 Pts
Stevenage (A) Draw 38 Pts
Northampton (H) Win - 41 Pts
Crewe (A) Win - 44 Pts
MK Dons (H) Lose - 44 Pts
Crawley (A) - Lose - 44 Pts
Grimsby (H) - Win 47 Pts
Swindon (A) - Lose - 47 Pts

It’s possible and it’s not over until it’s over. Ideally if we could get another win on top of the six required to get us to 50 points that would make things more comfortable. Let’s not think too much about what went before 1st Feb.

Don’t think you’re far out with that, I’m not great at predicting but I reckon it could go something like;

Port Vale (H) Win - 31 Pts
Cheltenham (A) Draw - 32 Pts
Carlisle (A) Lose - 32 Pts
Morecombe (H) Win - 35 Pts
Exeter (H) - Draw 36 Pts
Stevenage (A) Draw 37 Pts
Northampton (H) Win - 40 Pts
Crewe (A) Draw - 41Pts
MK Dons (H) Draw - 42 Pts
Crawley (A) - Lose - 42 Pts
Grimsby (H) - Win - 45 Pts
Swindon (A) - Draw - 46 Pts

I just want to add that now I’ve done that it feels overly optimistic and i’m not sure we will even get to 40 pts.

[LaxtonLad]

Lose this massive game against Port vale and the next game against Chelters becomes massiver, lose that and the game v Carlisle is even more massiver, carry on till season's end. We are now falling like a row of dominoes leading to the edge of an abyss.

I no longer blame Alan Hardy, nor the succession of managers or the players, there just seems to be a general malaise throughout the club. A fear, if you like. Not one of relegation itself but of individual failure. Listen to Charlie during a match telling of yet another chance gone when no-one dared to take a shot in case they missed. The team as a whole on the pitch do not seem to have spirit, body language as they trot out before a game is weak. Neal Ardley appears to be an effective League 2 manager but he has no bite, we need a powerful figure like Alex Ferguson or Jimmy Sirrel was or - dare I say it - Brian Clough.

[McCullochisGod]

You were right now we are back to 5 points a drift. However I don’t think we should underestimate the quality of Newport. They would be higher in the table if it wasn’t for the cup run they had and have some typically good league two players in the team. They are a good team.

We’ve got 12 games left. We need to win half of these and draw one to get to 47 points to meet old pies target of 1.58 points a game.

This is how I think we need to be doing in each game to reach that goal and stand a chance whilst dragging others into the mix;

Port Vale (H) Win - 31 Pts
Cheltenham (A) Win - 34 Pts
Carlisle (A) Lose - 34 Pts
Morecombe (H) Win - 37 Pts
Exeter (H) - Lose 37 Pts
Stevenage (A) Draw 38 Pts
Northampton (H) Win - 41 Pts
Crewe (A) Win - 44 Pts
MK Dons (H) Lose - 44 Pts
Crawley (A) - Lose - 44 Pts
Grimsby (H) - Win 47 Pts
Swindon (A) - Lose - 47 Pts

It’s possible and it’s not over until it’s over. Ideally if we could get another win on top of the six required to get us to 50 points that would make things more comfortable. Let’s not think too much about what went before 1st Feb.

So you are predicting 6 wins from the 12 games when we have 6 wins from 34? And... we still won't reach 50 points. Get me a lottery ticket next Friday please.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

So you are predicting 6 wins from the 12 games when we have 6 wins from 34? And... we still won't reach 50 points. Get me a lottery ticket next Friday please.

Yes it can be done. I’m not interested in what happened in the previous 29 games before 1st February as I alluded to. That was a different team and is in the past. It’s gone. Only Stead, Enzio and Hemmings have played from the team that started the first game of the season against Colchester away.

All I’m bothered about is what games are to come and left to be played. We need to look forward not backwards.

This new team has won two and drew one from the last five games and both wins and the draw came against teams in the top seven.

So the ability is there and I’ve seen it in games with my own eyes. I just don’t see why we should be writing this new team off after two defeats from five games which is mid table form.

[durhampie]

Yes it can be done. I’m not interested in what happened in the previous 29 games before 1st February as I alluded to. That was a different team and is in the past. It’s gone. Only Stead, Enzio and Hemmings have played from the team that started the first game of the season against Colchester away.

All I’m bothered about is what games are to come and left to be played. We need to look forward not backwards.

This new team has won two and drew one from the last five games and both wins and the draw came against teams in the top seven.

So the ability is there and I’ve seen it in games with my own eyes. I just don’t see why we should be writing this new team off after two defeats from five games which is mid table form.

Any team who create only 2 shots on goal in must win matches deserve to go down..

[durhampie]

Date	Games Left	Requirement	Pts/Game	Target
31/01/19	17	47	1.53	Morecambe
02/02/19	16	47	1.56	Morecambe
12/02/19	15	46	1.40	Morecambe
16/02/19	14	44	1.14	Yeovil
19/02/19	13	44	1.23	Yeovil

Not a lot really changed. Depends whether this was just a blip or the 7 pts out of 9 was a flash in the pan.

7 points in every 4 games will still do nicely. Over to you NA & co.

He shouldn't have changed a winning team..

[slack_pie]

Morecambe look likely to pick up enough points to stay up to me meaning its two from four to drop. Lose to Vale and it's two from three with us strong odds on to be one of them.
Absolutely massive game for us next week, no playing it down or getting away from it, we have to win realistically anything else is just blind hope and faith.

The truth is, if we don't beat Port Vale next week, we don't deserve to stay up. We've been awful against the teams around us this season. If we could have just picked up home draws against Cambridge, Macc and Cheltenham, that would have been enough. But no.

[nw6pie]

The truth is, if we don't beat Port Vale next week, we don't deserve to stay up. We've been awful against the teams around us this season. If we could have just picked up home draws against Cambridge, Macc and Cheltenham, that would have been enough. But no.

Spot on. Our performances against fellow strugglers have been dire (Cambridge and Yeovil did the double over us; we conceded late equalisers against Morecambe and Port Vale, although we didn’t deserve to win either game anyway). If we can’t beat Port Vale and Morecambe at home, and get at least a point at Cheltenham, we clearly are the worst team in the league and deserve all we get.

Let’s just hope the team that played with such hunger against Lincoln , FGR and the Stags is back for those games. I’m going to hope the week’s break makes all the difference.

[The-Mac pie]

We all know that supporting notts county isn’t straight forward...
We really are in dog sheite right now..
We do have a team that can get us out of trouble,but I fear the damage was done before these new additions came onboard..
A mammoth task ahead.
I’m a believer,but then I always will be