Points required update thread

[LaxtonLad]

If only we had just the top ten teams to play, eh? Unfortunately for us, at the start of the season we were favourites for the champs meaning every other team in League 2 were below us, and we had to play them. Soon, of course, as we can't beat the teams below us, we drop down the league. By now the teams above us have sussed us out and start playing below average, in fact EVERY team has now weighed us up and started playing krap, meaning every team in the league needs only to play like girlies and, voila! Tres points!

[Old_pie]

Just when I thought I could give up on doing this

Date	Games Left	Requirement	Pts/Game	Target
31/01/19	17	47	1.53	Morecambe
02/02/19	16	47	1.56	Morecambe
12/02/19	15	46	1.40	Morecambe
16/02/19	14	44	1.14	Yeovil
19/02/19	13	44	1.23	Yeovil
23/02/19	12	47	1.58	Port Vale
02/03/19	11	47	1.64	Port Vale
09/03/19	10	48	1.90	Yeovil
12/03/19	9	47	1.67	Yeovil

Still a tall order though - 15 points from 9 games.

Who's going to write the next letter? Well done that Crazy man!

[jacobncfc]

Posted this in the other thread, but it's more relevant here:

It's hard to know what we actually need points wise to stay up because Yeovil are so weird. Realistically I think it's now two from Notts, Macclesfield and them. Since taking 14 points from their first 7 games and going top, they've been genuinely appalling. To the extent that if both Notts and Yeovil replicated their form from the previous nine games over the nine games left, we'd overtake them. And it doesn't exactly feel like we've been in sparkling form ourselves.

[Old_pie]

Posted this in the other thread, but it's more relevant here:

It's hard to know what we actually need points wise to stay up because Yeovil are so weird. Realistically I think it's now two from Notts, Macclesfield and them. Since taking 14 points from their first 7 games and going top, they've been genuinely appalling. To the extent that if both Notts and Yeovil replicated their form from the previous nine games over the nine games left, we'd overtake them. And it doesn't exactly feel like we've been in sparkling form ourselves.

Maybe but the Points Required figure hasn't generally massively fluctuated even if the target team has changed.

[MancMagpie]

Posted this in the other thread, but it's more relevant here:

It's hard to know what we actually need points wise to stay up because Yeovil are so weird. Realistically I think it's now two from Notts, Macclesfield and them. Since taking 14 points from their first 7 games and going top, they've been genuinely appalling. To the extent that if both Notts and Yeovil replicated their form from the previous nine games over the nine games left, we'd overtake them. And it doesn't exactly feel like we've been in sparkling form ourselves.

I don't think so Jacob. There's always a surprise last minute dropper and I think it will be Cambridge. 1 of 4 IMO

[jacobncfc]

Maybe but the Points Required figure hasn't generally massively fluctuated even if the target team has changed.

Aye because it's (I assume) calculated from a team's overall points per game, and Yeovil's is similar to the other teams around them. But if they continue their form of the last 30 games, they'll end up on 42 rather than the 46 predicted. There's obviously nothing to say that they won't pick up more than that, but 30 games is a bloody long time, they remind me a bit of that Notts team which plummeted to relegation under Derry and Moniz after a great start.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Well that is one of the wins required chalked off. I’d predicted a loss against Carlisle in my previous list. So here is a revision.

At the moment Yeovil are on course to finish on 45 points.

P9, W4, D3, L2, Pts 15

Morecombe (H) Win - 35 Pts
Exeter (H) - Lose 35 Pts
Stevenage (A) Draw 36 Pts
Northampton (H) Win - 39 Pts
Crewe (A) Win - 42 Pts
MK Dons (H) Lose - 42 Pts
Crawley (A) - Draw 43 Pts
Grimsby (H) - Win 46 Pts
Swindon (A) - Draw - 47 Pts

[Bohinen]

Aye because it's (I assume) calculated from a team's overall points per game, and Yeovil's is similar to the other teams around them. But if they continue their form of the last 30 games, they'll end up on 42 rather than the 46 predicted. There's obviously nothing to say that they won't pick up more than that, but 30 games is a bloody long time, they remind me a bit of that Notts team which plummeted to relegation under Derry and Moniz after a great start.

Here's a table showing the last 9 games for, which you maybe used to work that out. Yeovil are bottom of the form table on that basis (6 points), with Port Vale second worst (8 points) despite their recent wins and Macc are third worst (9 points). Notts are lower mid table (11 points). That form would see Yeovil and Macc relegated with Port Vale comfortably safe and Notts just safe. No other team appears to be in danger.

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables...home-and-away/

The trouble is, Yeovil play Macc next, and whilst they can't both both win, neither can they both lose. A draw is our best result, keeping it to 2 points between them and neither get a morale boosting victory. Or maybe Macc should win to further destroy Yeovil's confidence.

[Old_pie]

Aye because it's (I assume) calculated from a team's overall points per game, and Yeovil's is similar to the other teams around them. But if they continue their form of the last 30 games, they'll end up on 42 rather than the 46 predicted. There's obviously nothing to say that they won't pick up more than that, but 30 games is a bloody long time, they remind me a bit of that Notts team which plummeted to relegation under Derry and Moniz after a great start.

The criteria are as per my original post. Not perfect but it has to average out as the games go on. Of course anyone can cause an aberration - we might win 6 games on the trot! Or Macclesfield might, which would leave us chasing someone else. Our own 'erratic' performance has consistently left us bottom.

If Yeovil are likely to end up on 42 my methodology would be predicting we need 44,

Just hope that we are capable of avoiding leaving it to the last day because a win or a loss could have a big effect.

[jacobncfc]

Here's a table showing the last 9 games for, which you maybe used to work that out. Yeovil are bottom of the form table on that basis (6 points), with Port Vale second worst (8 points) despite their recent wins and Macc are third worst (9 points). Notts are lower mid table (11 points). That form would see Yeovil and Macc relegated with Port Vale comfortably safe and Notts just safe. No other team appears to be in danger.

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables...home-and-away/

The trouble is, Yeovil play Macc next, and whilst they can't both both win, neither can they both lose. A draw is our best result, keeping it to 2 points between them and neither get a morale boosting victory. Or maybe Macc should win to further destroy Yeovil's confidence.

I think we want anything but a Yeovil win, to be honest. I think we’ve got to accept that if we don’t finish above Macclesfield then we’re done and focus on trying to catch the team above us.