Points required update thread

[ForeignLegion]

Crawley, with nothing to play for, did a pretty good job at Exeter.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Crawley have won their last 2????

Is correct but I’m referring to their form in their last 8 home games which is 23rd in the league. Only our home form is worse.

Grimsby and Crawley have had a similar number of defeats to us and all the other teams fighting relegation. What they have done better and the reason they are not down at the bottom is they have converted draws into wins.

We’ve won 8 games all season. If you can’t win 10 games in a season then ultimately you get what you deserve.

We really are in the last chance saloon now and can not afford to lose anymore games.

[Old_pie]

Is correct but I’m referring to their form in their last 8 home games which is 23rd in the league. Only our home form is worse.

Grimsby and Crawley have had a similar number of defeats to us and all the other teams fighting relegation. What they have done better and the reason they are not down at the bottom is they have converted draws into wins.

We’ve won 8 games all season. If you can’t win 10 games in a season then ultimately you get what you deserve.

We really are in the last chance saloon now and can not afford to lose anymore games.

We can not afford to not win most of the remaining games is what I think you meant to say?

[upthemaggies]

We can not afford to not win most of the remaining games is what I think you meant to say?

Craig Mackail-Smith was on talkSport this morning, he seemed to think that just one win (three points) would be enough. Presumably that's what they're saying in the dressing room.

[countygump]

Craig Mackail-Smith was on talkSport this morning, he seemed to think that just one win (three points) would be enough. Presumably that's what they're saying in the dressing room.

Well, it doesn't pay to aim too high, does it?

[Old_pie]

Craig Mackail-Smith was on talkSport this morning, he seemed to think that just one win (three points) would be enough. Presumably that's what they're saying in the dressing room.

My projection is now 3 points from each of the remaining games to be safe. Whatever CMS/Notts are on is fool's gold.

The simple unavoidable fact is that if you are bottom and not doing better than the teams around you then you will remain bottom.

Date	Games Left	Requirement	Pts/Game	Target	Form this table
31/01/19	17	47	1.53	Morecambe
02/02/19	16	47	1.56	Morecambe	1.00
12/02/19	15	46	1.40	Morecambe	2.00
16/02/19	14	44	1.14	Yeovil	2.33
19/02/19	13	44	1.23	Yeovil	1.75
23/02/19	12	47	1.58	Port Vale	1.40
02/03/19	11	47	1.64	Port Vale	1.33
09/03/19	10	48	1.90	Yeovil	1.14
12/03/19	9	47	1.67	Yeovil	1.38
16/03/19	8	46	1.63	Yeovil	1.33
16/03/19	7	45	1.71	Yeovil	1.20
30/03/19	6	44	1.33	Yeovil	1.36
06/04/19	5	44	1.40	Yeovil	1.33
09/04/19	5	46	1.80	Macclesfield	1.33
13/04/19	4	45	2.00	Macclesfield	1.23
19/04/19	3	44	2.33	Macclesfield	1.14
22/04/19	2	44	3.00	Macclesfield	1.13

Note: Points required -= 3rd from bottom rounded up + 1 for gd +1 for safety

[crazyfists]

Well, it doesn't pay to aim too high, does it?

Ha ha yeah they'd only be disappointed. We've had 2 wins in 12 games so even 1 in 3 was quite far beyond the realms of possibility. Can we beat Grimsby at home to give us a shot? I'm not sure we can even score and the pressure will be palpable in the ground. This season is like death by a thousand cuts.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

My projection is now 3 points from each of the remaining games to be safe. Whatever CMS/Notts are on is fool's gold.

The simple unavoidable fact is that if you are bottom and not doing better than the teams around you then you will remain bottom.

Date	Games Left	Requirement	Pts/Game	Target	Form this table
31/01/19	17	47	1.53	Morecambe
02/02/19	16	47	1.56	Morecambe	1.00
12/02/19	15	46	1.40	Morecambe	2.00
16/02/19	14	44	1.14	Yeovil	2.33
19/02/19	13	44	1.23	Yeovil	1.75
23/02/19	12	47	1.58	Port Vale	1.40
02/03/19	11	47	1.64	Port Vale	1.33
09/03/19	10	48	1.90	Yeovil	1.14
12/03/19	9	47	1.67	Yeovil	1.38
16/03/19	8	46	1.63	Yeovil	1.33
16/03/19	7	45	1.71	Yeovil	1.20
30/03/19	6	44	1.33	Yeovil	1.36
06/04/19	5	44	1.40	Yeovil	1.33
09/04/19	5	46	1.80	Macclesfield	1.33
13/04/19	4	45	2.00	Macclesfield	1.23
19/04/19	3	44	2.33	Macclesfield	1.14
22/04/19	2	44	3.00	Macclesfield	1.13

Note: Points required -= 3rd from bottom rounded up + 1 for gd +1 for safety

Our basic failure to capitalise on the results of Macclesfield and Yeovil in the past few games and do better than those teams is now leading us on a path to which there maybe no escape.

As it stands the team in 22nd place has averaged 0.91 points per game and currently has 40 points from 44 games.

Therefore that is a season total of 42 points.

So we need to finish on at least 43 points now to survive which means another 5 points.

It’s not possible to get 5 points now only 0, 1,2,3,4 or 6 points. So as you say we’ve now got to win both our remaining two games following today’s draw.

Grimsby (H) - Win 41 points
Swindon (A) - Win 44 points

We really have left ourselves now with a mountain to climb which it never should have got this far. We have had 44 attempts to win a game of football and have only done it 8 times. That is a shocking 1 win in every 5 1/2 games!

For some reason in recent games we seem to have shot ourselves in the foot, made the same mistakes over and over again by not defending set pieces properly and switching off. Not forgetting two red cards have not helped the cause either. We really have been our own worst enemies this season.

We’ve still got a chance and while that is the case it’s still possible but it would need to be something special, because that’s what is needed now.

[Old_pie]

Date	Games Left	Requirement	Pts/Game	Target	Form this table
31/01/19	17	47	1.53	Morecambe
02/02/19	16	47	1.56	Morecambe	1.00
12/02/19	15	46	1.40	Morecambe	2.00
16/02/19	14	44	1.14	Yeovil	2.33
19/02/19	13	44	1.23	Yeovil	1.75
23/02/19	12	47	1.58	Port Vale	1.40
02/03/19	11	47	1.64	Port Vale	1.33
09/03/19	10	48	1.90	Yeovil	1.14
12/03/19	9	47	1.67	Yeovil	1.38
16/03/19	8	46	1.63	Yeovil	1.33
16/03/19	7	45	1.71	Yeovil	1.20
30/03/19	6	44	1.33	Yeovil	1.36
06/04/19	5	44	1.40	Yeovil	1.33
09/04/19	5	46	1.80	Macclesfield	1.33
13/04/19	4	45	2.00	Macclesfield	1.23
19/04/19	3	44	2.33	Macclesfield	1.14
22/04/19	2	44	3.00	Macclesfield	1.13
27/04/19	1	46	5.00	Macclesfield	1.25

Note: Points required -= 3rd from bottom rounded up + 1 for gd +1 for safety

So the above prediction is we would need 5 points from the last game. Well the options are:

Macclesfield finish on either: 43, 44, or 46
We finish on: 41, 42, or 44.
With the GD as it is then simply we must win and they must lose, and even 5 points for the last game doesn't guarantee it!!

The predictor has us down and that is how the odds look. Meanwhile NA can compliment himself on better than relegation form with his post transfer team despite numerous opportunities to have got us out of this mess and yet another late goal (even if not affecting anything) conceded.

[The_Don_ORiordan]

Sums it up really.

We were relegated when we lost at home to Newport.

We’ve never looked the team we were for those 3 games since. And have consistently thrown away the points that would have saved us.