43/44 Points

[CAMiller]

Having done some rudimentary mathematical modeling on the way this season is going compared to previous ones I'm ready to stick my neck out and say we will need 43 or 44 points to avoid relegation if patterns from the first 32 games continue over the last 14.

So we won't survive if we draw all our remaining games, time for PW to 'release the Kraken' and push on for the 5 wins that will all but see us safe?

PS If appropriate, come May feel free the remind me how wrong I was with this bold prediction.

[CASPER-64-FRANK]

Can't see where the five wins are coming from.
I have us down as 42 points.
Feel free to remind me if I'm wrong.

[flourbasher]

It can also be 3 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats to get to your prediction.
Perhaps more achievable
If we lose more than 4 then we have to turn at least one draw into a win

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

Hmmm......some sobering numbers there.

Personally I’m struggling to see where the next win is coming from.

Playing with Warne’s plan A and negative formation it’s a big task.

[caytonmiller]

43 points would be a good goal though Saturday could be our last chance at 3 points. Tbh I will be gobsmacked if we get to 40 points

[CAMiller]

It can also be 3 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats to get to your prediction.
Perhaps more achievable
If we lose more than 4 then we have to turn at least one draw into a win

I get your point fb (although you missed one game). My point was more about when we get at teams and have them on the back foot we seem to do better so give it a go and get the 5 wins in the bag. There are at least 5 games that I could see us winning, with a bit of luck!

[caytonmiller]

which 5 do you fancy cam?

[CAMiller]

which 5 do you fancy cam?

Well I think we always have a chance at NYS so that's 7 possibilities plus the only away games I would fear are WBA, Swansea and Derby (and we already beat two of those). If, and it's of course a big IF we play to our potential and avoid injuries, we could do it.

[caytonmiller]

the 3 i have most hope is vs wednesday, blackburn and birmingham from the away games qpr are on a bit of a wobble so most hope is there. hopefully wba and middlesbourgh could be in the playoffs by the time we play them and rest 7/8 first teamers

[flourbasher]

Reading away has to be a possibility.
Although we do like to ship points to relegation rivals