Lib Dems on top!

[sinkov]

I wouldn't get carried away 59, Guido has revealed a bit of skullduggery employed by YouGov,

"YouGov not prompting for the Brexit Party in this morning’s bombshell poll when it is polling second in Westminster voting intentions and won the Euros has riled a lot of their supporters. Anthony Wells has written an explainer and makes this justification:
“…like many pollsters we overstated support for the Brexit Party, putting them at 37% compared to the 31.6% they actually achieved in Great Britain. Over the next few weeks, we will also be looking at the possible causes of that overstatement, and whether there was something to do with turnout, undecided voters or our weighting or sampling scheme that led to us having too many Brexit voters in our final poll.”
However, it’s worth remembering their final poll for the 2017 General Election predicted a 7% gap between the Tories and Labour, in the election itself this shrunk by the same margin to just 2%. YouGov may well have tweaked their turnout models afterwards, Guido doesn’t recall them doing anything as drastic as moving a major party into ‘Other’…"

There was actually a real election last week, with real people casting real votes, result Brexit Party 31.6%, LibDems 20.3%. Good show by the LibDems really, good but no cigar, Sir Nigel is smoking that.

[Supersub6]

Link not working Super....

Try again ---- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r58GQYFZeLE

[1959_60]

I wouldn't get carried away 59, Guido has revealed a bit of skullduggery employed by YouGov,

"YouGov not prompting for the Brexit Party in this morning’s bombshell poll when it is polling second in Westminster voting intentions and won the Euros has riled a lot of their supporters. Anthony Wells has written an explainer and makes this justification:
“…like many pollsters we overstated support for the Brexit Party, putting them at 37% compared to the 31.6% they actually achieved in Great Britain. Over the next few weeks, we will also be looking at the possible causes of that overstatement, and whether there was something to do with turnout, undecided voters or our weighting or sampling scheme that led to us having too many Brexit voters in our final poll.”
However, it’s worth remembering their final poll for the 2017 General Election predicted a 7% gap between the Tories and Labour, in the election itself this shrunk by the same margin to just 2%. YouGov may well have tweaked their turnout models afterwards, Guido doesn’t recall them doing anything as drastic as moving a major party into ‘Other’…"

There was actually a real election last week, with real people casting real votes, result Brexit Party 31.6%, LibDems 20.3%. Good show by the LibDems really, good but no cigar, Sir Nigel is smoking that.

I'm not getting carried away at all Sinkov. There was a short time during the 2010 GE campaign that the Lib dems were on 37% and leading in the polls.

But i think the latest one is probably pretty accurate.

LD 24%
Brexit 22%
Lab 19%
Tory 19%
Green 8%

Last week was

Brexit 32%
LD 20%
Lab 14%
Green 12%
Tory 9%

Remember, this was a poll for voting intentions for a GE - and the Brexit Party have no policies as yet. Last week a lot of votes were "lent" to other parties depending on peoples thoughts on Brexit.

If there was a GE then some of these voters will "go home" to their spiritual party.

So... in a GE people who voted Green last week seem to be moving towards the Lib Dems. (LD up 4% Greens down 4%)

Some Tories who voted for Nige last week would vote Tory in a GE (Tories up 10% Brexit down 10%)

Labour are up 5% from the Euros, probably a mixture of people who voted Green/LD/Brexit last week returning to the fold.

Until the Brexit Party actually come up with some decent policies (I believe they have started the process) then most people CAN'T vote for them in a GE.

The polls will continue to move over time but it is obvious that Labour and the Tories are in big trouble.

[sinkov]

I really do doubt the accuracy of this poll 59. Just 1,700 participants, the Brexit Party not even listed as an option, you had to search in 'Others' for them. The vast majority of OPs have been all over the place these last few years, and I suspect this is just another unreliable one, while I don't doubt the surge in support for the LibDems, as indication of how big that surge is, I would say this OP is virtually useless.

But accurate or not, it makes good reading for your lot, so enjoy being top of the league while it lasts, I suspect it might be as difficult to stay there as it was for us to finish 7th again last season.
Peterborough will be interesting, a Leave constituency, if the Brexit Party don't win there or come close, then Sir Nigel might have that smirk wiped off his face. Let's see what real voters say in a real election, then we'll know more.

[1959_60]

Ah, I see what you mean Sinkov. and the Greens could say the same.

YouGov have been around for long enough and should know what they are doing but I admit that it does seem strange.

I still say though that if there were a GE today then many people couldn't vote for a party without policies. Obviously they are working on it though.

[sinkov]

The good folk of Peterborough will be voting for a Brexit Party candidate to represent them in Parliament with just the one policy, Leave the EU. It might be enough in a one off by-election, but probably you're right, it's not sustainable in a GE, not if they want to make a serious impact anyway.

Or is it, they could test to destruction the theory that one big popular policy might be enough, 17.4 million people voted to leave, if just two thirds of them said bollox to policies, I'm voting for Brexit, I don't care about the rest of it, they could form the next government, or hold the balance of power. If I was Sir Nigel, I'd be very vague on policy, scrap HS2, maybe have a look at Foreign Aid, push his points based immigration system again, abolish the House of Lords, nothing to frighten the natives, they won't need to be policy heavy with the Remain vote split. They will get the kitchen sink thrown at them by the Remain media, but he knows that's coming, it's inevitable.

[sinkov]

Well that didn't last long did it 59, an Opinium Poll just published for the Observor has found this,

Brexit Party 26%
Labour 22%
Tories 17%
LibDems 16%
Greens 11%

16% is still a good result for your lot, that's double the figure you've been running at for the last couple of years, you're back in the game, just, no longer irrelevant.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...atives-opinium

[1959_60]

Yes, it was nice while it lasted Sinkov!

[sinkov]

Peterborough will be interesting, a Leave constituency, if the Brexit Party don't win there or come close, then Sir Nigel might have that smirk wiped off his face. Let's see what real voters say in a real election, then we'll know more.

Fascinating result, not sure it makes the picture much clearer though. The Brexit Party support held up from the Euros and Labour managed to hold onto the seat, so both can claim some sort of success, but I think the happiest of the lot with that result will be the Tories. They more or less washed their hands of the seat, they were almost in hiding behind the sofa for the duration, yet they didn't lose that much more support than Labour, they weren't annihilated, and their support didn't defect wholesale to the Brexit Party.

I was thinking Sir Nigel would have a free run at the Leave vote with the Remain vote split, but here the Brexit Party were stuffed by 400 UKIP voters and 300 Tories who might have jumped ship but didn't. The conclusion to me is that in a GE the next Tory leader will have to work with Sir Nigel whether he likes it or not. If they don't work together they'll hang together. But Labour are still in a mess, Jeremy remained seated on the fence but still won, why would he jump off it now, he'll have to be pushed.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

At the end of the day people tend to get it right. We voted to Leave the EU and the good citizens of Peterborough have voted FOR THE MANY NOT THE FEW.

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