O/T Jeremy corbyn

[KerrAvon]

I would disagree that we can’t use current polling data to make at least a plausible argument to what extent people had ‘hard/soft Brexit ideas in mind when they voted. If we accept that we are quite evenly split between Remain/No Deal/Deal at the moment, then we can make sensible estimations/approximations that at the very least indicate that No Deal was not what the majority of voters had in mind/wanted at the point of the referendum. If anything, if you take 48% of the population as already defined as clearly wanting to remain, then you have an X split between the 52% as to people who are fervent No Dealers and those who, on balance, have been persuaded to vote Leave but do not view the EU as the beast that the more extremes do, then I would continue to argue that there never was, and is most definitely a majority consensus for No Deal. It’s as simple as that really. To sit back and say “How can we really know…” is just conveniently copping out of engaging with the question and drawing this obvious conclusion: that there is not, and never was a national majority for a No Deal outcome.

Of course, we can elect a PM who will try and re-negotiate and antagonise the EU so that they take the decision for us but I think that once that intention becomes apparent, parliament will bring down the government. This should be good news for Labour but if translated into a win despite the split votes (Labour v Lib Dems and Tories v BP) then Corbyn or whomever then face the parliamentary arithmetic issue will be an empty win (from a Brexit end point POV).

I don’t agree that May couldn’t agree on a compromise arrangement on the CU with labour. It was perfectly within her remit to do so but obviously it would have pissed off a large part of her party. That would be difficult for her but Corbyn is running a masterclass in pissing off large sections of his own party. The only question for me was would the outcome provide a big enough majority to get the amended deal through parliament? The indicative rounds suggested no to a CU, but we’ll never know to what extent there was a genuine attempt to create a CU amendment that could have pulled in the more moderate conservatives if whipped to form a majority. Unlike you, I think that there was a good will attempt from both sides in these negotiations but it was always a long shot. But I wouldn’t agree that this was labour “playing games” or cynically using the Brexit situation as a means to gain power. From my perspective, Corbyn is resisting enormous pressure from the vast majority of (mainly moderates, the ones you would most likely quite like to control the Labour party) Labour MPs and members who want him to switch to supporting Remain right away. His reluctance to do this, to honour the referendum unless all other options run dry, is very likely to bring his overthrow from within the party.

None of which solves the problem that we have now. I remain in favour of a Deal, and will maintain that as long as there are searches from the new PM, or Corbyn if it eventually falls to him to gain a majority in parliament. I think that the EU will wait on current terms as long as they sense that there is good will to move towards a positive solution.

I personally don’t mind being labelled an activist. Just unsure as to why you don’t see yourself as one.

*Note to Grist. I copy/pasted this reply from Viz.

You have every right to speculate about the outcome of a referendum that had a no deal outcome on the paper, but that’s all it is – speculation. Sitting back and saying ‘ How can we really know' is statement of fact. It’s not an ideal position to be in, but reality cares little for convenience.


It’s not a question of a new PM antagonising the EU; they are already antagonised, frustrated and anxious to move on with their European project. They are not keen on a no deal outcome, but are aware that the deal they offered - and which the UK government accepted - has been blocked by the UK Parliament on three occasions. They might allow a further extension if there were a good reason, but there isn’t. That’s clear from your post where you talk about kicking the can down the road for as long as it takes. To what end? On the D Day for Brexit thread you argued for indicative votes; you got them and they achieved nothing. You then argued for cross party talks; you got them and they achieved nothing. As you conceded the other day – Labour have got themselves into a position where they don’t like the deal (they had so much fun with their 'damaging Tory Brexit' catchphrase) and they don’t want no deal, but sitll claim to want to leave...

Even if the remaining 27 EU members were to agree to some sort of never ending extension, the point comes at which the harm that the UK would suffer from that – in both economic and political terms – outweighs that which would flow from no deal.

I am not convinced that there would be a majority in Parliament for a vote of no confidence if we head towards no deal. Too many MPs know that they would be voting for an end to their political careers. There is the odd one or too – Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry spring to mind – who would do it any way, but I question whether there would be enough. The Labour led attempt to take control of the Parliamentary Order Paper last week failed in large part due to the Labour MPs who either abstained or voted against the motion, which demonstrates that the Labour leadership are not in control.

May could not agree to approach the EU about a Customs Union. She knew - as did Labour - that her party stood on a referendum which rejected that approach. She knew – as did Labour – that if she were to agree to approaching the EU on that basis, the 1922 committee would change the party rules to allow an immediate vote of no confidence and that she would be out. She also knew – as did Labour – that any agreement even if carried by Parliament would be meaningless. I’m sure that the EU27 would agree to amend the Political Declaration to indicate that a Customs Union was envisaged as part of the future relationship, but that would be binding on neither side and we have no idea what 'price' the EU27 would seek to extract from us in the future relationship negotiations.

When have I expressed a view upon whether I am an activist?