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Thread: Fao 59/60

  1. #1
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    Fao 59/60

    You were saying a while back 59 that the WA only lasted until the end of the Transition Period and we would soon be free of it. This appears to be the position of many MPs as well, who clearly have no idea what it contains. Hopefully it's dead and buried now, but you never know, it might well be resurrected, in which case have a look at this. It should be obligatory for all our MPs to read it, because so many simply don't have clue what they're talking about, nor the long term threat the WA along with the Political Declaration poses.


    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/wp-co....-D.-Grant.pdf

  2. #2
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    The EU is like the Borg. We have been assimilated and if we want our freedom back it means No Deal, No Single Market, No Customs Union, No Free Movement, No Subjection to European Courts. If we as a nation are not prepared to reclaim our independence we may as well revoke Article 50. I would have preferred a sensible deal but the EU are just not interested and we have already wasted three years finding that out.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by outwoodclaret View Post
    The EU is like the Borg. We have been assimilated and if we want our freedom back it means No Deal, No Single Market, No Customs Union, No Free Movement, No Subjection to European Courts. If we as a nation are not prepared to reclaim our independence we may as well revoke Article 50. I would have preferred a sensible deal but the EU are just not interested and we have already wasted three years finding that out.
    Have you been on a serious dose of "sensible medicine" outwood? That's two posts out of two of yours I am 100% in agreement with this morning and it's not even 7.00am yet!

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    Quote Originally Posted by sinkov View Post
    You were saying a while back 59 that the WA only lasted until the end of the Transition Period and we would soon be free of it. This appears to be the position of many MPs as well, who clearly have no idea what it contains. Hopefully it's dead and buried now, but you never know, it might well be resurrected, in which case have a look at this. It should be obligatory for all our MPs to read it, because so many simply don't have clue what they're talking about, nor the long term threat the WA along with the Political Declaration poses.


    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/wp-co....-D.-Grant.pdf
    Morning Sinkov. I've had a busy week. My daughter in law has returned home this week after spending the last 9 years in Australia and so you can imagine this week has been full on.
    Yesterday we had a terrific day in the Lakes and climbed Mardale Ill Bell, High Street, The Knott, Ramsgill Head and Kidsty Pike. After a damp and misty start the weather turned out to be really good.

    I will try to find time to read the article above which at first glance seems to be pushing for a no deal Brexit.
    I would say though that you are very selective in which "experts" you are convinced by and which "experts" you don't believe, including those who tell us that a no deal Brexit would be sh1te for our economy and those who are warning about the consequences of climate change. We both have our views on these matters and we are obviously impressed by people who agree with us. Fair enough.

    But I have never supported the WA. I am happy to remain in the EU under our current arrangements. The backstop is just a fudge. It is only in place because no one can invent a workable solution to the Irish border which necessitates no checks to trade and people at the border and at the same time allows us to control free movement of people and for us to trade under different financial arrangements, trading standards from a totally different trading area.
    Boris etc seem to think that "alternative arrangements" can be in place by 31st October, but no one has explained how this can work. Can you help me out here?
    You blithely say that we won't build a hard border and neither will the EU.
    But in this case, how on earth can there be customs checks, checks on standards and controlling which people are entering and leaving our country?

    If there was a technological solution available then why is it not used already at Dover, Hull, or anywhere else?

    This is a very important matter and Boris et al needs to explain very clearly how the border will work.

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    Like you I'm a bit pressed at the moment 59, but briefly I've posted the above to point out the various traps the WA and PD sets for us. Most politicians are either unaware of them or are lying about them. The danger is that so many seem to think if the backstop goes then the rest is acceptable. If the EU does something about the backstop this could be re-opened and the rest of it, trapping us in the jurisdiction of the EU, will pass.

    It does point out how leaving without a WA is much preferable to this WA but that's not the point, there are attempts to have another referendum and the public could be asked to vote on this WA while 99.9% will not have read it, nor be aware of it's implications. We all should be.

    You know I'm all for Brexit, but if it came to a choice between this WA and revoke and stay in the EU, then I would vote to revoke A50, that's how lethal this document is to our country. And virtually no one has a clue. It's scary.

    I'll just say again 59, this is not an attempt to persuade you or anyone else of the merits of no deal, just trying to point out the dangers of this WA.

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    I managed to get about two thirds through that and it made my brain hurt.
    And, as many have been saying, there is no deal available that is better than the one we have now. And this deal has made our country prosper over the last few decades.
    We would be a much weaker nation if we had not been in the EU.
    We both agree (I think) that this deal would weaken us in many ways. Do you think there IS a deal that would be better for us than the one we have now?
    I think you still support a complete break from the EU? Do you honestly think we will subsequently negotiate a better deal with the EU than we have now? Really?
    Or are you saying that a deal with the USA will be better for us and we don't need the EU? Good luck with that!

    It looks like Boris will be the new PM and he can hardly NOT take us out of the EU in October otherwise he will make Theresa look like Solomon and he will not be allowed to buffoon his way out of it. "Haha! Typical Boris. He's a lad!" will not wash this time.

    The USA will exact a very heavy price from us to give us a deal. We will be desperate - and they know it.

    After reading (two thirds) of that piece I am an even more committed Remoaner.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1959_60 View Post
    I managed to get about two thirds through that and it made my brain hurt.
    And, as many have been saying, there is no deal available that is better than the one we have now. And this deal has made our country prosper over the last few decades.
    We would be a much weaker nation if we had not been in the EU.
    We both agree (I think) that this deal would weaken us in many ways. Do you think there IS a deal that would be better for us than the one we have now?
    I think you still support a complete break from the EU? Do you honestly think we will subsequently negotiate a better deal with the EU than we have now? Really?
    Or are you saying that a deal with the USA will be better for us and we don't need the EU? Good luck with that!

    It looks like Boris will be the new PM and he can hardly NOT take us out of the EU in October otherwise he will make Theresa look like Solomon and he will not be allowed to buffoon his way out of it. "Haha! Typical Boris. He's a lad!" will not wash this time.

    The USA will exact a very heavy price from us to give us a deal. We will be desperate - and they know it.

    After reading (two thirds) of that piece I am an even more committed Remoaner.
    I was hoping you could just skim through it 59 and pick up on the relevant bits about the traps involved in signing up to this WA, that's all I posted it for. You often moan that we didn't know what we were voting for in the referendum, no one seems to have a clue what this WA contains, but you would be happy for us to vote on it ?

    All this stuff about not getting a better deal than the one we have now, all out of date 59, three year old news, you're just going over old ground again, we thought about all that three years ago and came to a decision, we voted to leave the EU, what is so hard to understand about that ? Why cannot you accept the democratic decision of the British people ? When are you going to grow up, stop acting like a spoiled child and accept that we live in a democracy, the very foundation of which is that the losers of a vote accept the result ?

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    "It is only in place because no one can invent a workable solution to the Irish border which necessitates no checks to trade and people at the border and at the same time allows us to control free movement of people and for us to trade under different financial arrangements, trading standards from a totally different trading area."


    You'll have to have a word with M Barnier 59, he says more time is needed to implement the necessary border controls. So if it is a matter of time, it cannot be that there is no solution. What the EU is proposing in the fullness of time I have no idea, you'll have to ask M Barnier.

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    Yes Sinkov, I picked up on some of the authors concerns about the WA and recognised some of them. But i must admit that the more technical stuff went over my head. It is obvious for example that until a solution is found to the Irish border we will be in an unacceptable position of having to follow their rules without having a say in them. People who want to time limit the backstop are being silly. How can you put a time limit on inventing something which is, in effect, what some people are asking for.
    This deal is the worst of all worlds and if I had to choose between it and leaving with no deal then I would struggle to make a decision.
    Which brings us to the question which us Remoaners have been asking for a long time. Is this what you voted for in 2016?
    If not then shouldn't we have a chance to tell the Government before it is too late?
    I have always thought that the second referendum should have three choices.
    The deal
    No deal
    Remain

    Otherwise we may well be taken out of the EU with this badly flawed deal - and not many people want that.

    But if we are considering leaving in October with no deal then a honest explanation of how the Irish border will work needs to be forthcoming. It's not an unreasonable question to ask is it?

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    We won't be taken out of the EU with this WA though 59, that's the whole point of this thread. The authors aren't simply expressing concerns, they are pointing out the facts about the situation in which this deal will leave the UK, about which 99.9 % of the population, including your good self are unaware. And yet we could be asked to vote on it, indeed you even advocate having a vote on it.

    On the border issue, I've pointed out before that there are solutions, I've even posted links to some of them, they have been explained by numerous bodies and individuals, but the EU does not want a solution, so one cannot be agreed. Once we have left it will surprise you how soon a workable solution is in place. But can you explain something to me, because you obviously spend far more time considering the Irish border problem than I do, both sides agree that a trade deal solves the problem, how will the border work then ?

    I still fail to understand your concerns about a trade deal with the USA. We already trade with the USA, I haven't checked but I'm assuming it is one of our biggest trading partners, and not being an expert by any means, I'm also assuming we trade with them on WTO terms. Any bespoke trade deal we agree with them will have to be better than the current WTO terms or we won't be signing up to it. So if it's going to be better than the existing arrangements, as it must be, then what is it you are so afraid of ?
    Last edited by sinkov; 17-06-2019 at 07:41 AM.

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    We won't be taken out of the EU with this WA though 59, that's the whole point of this thread. The authors aren't simply expressing concerns, they are pointing out the facts about the situation in which this deal will leave the UK, about which 99.9 % of the population, including your good self are unaware. And yet we could be asked to vote on it, indeed you even advocate having a vote on it.
    I agree with the fact that should we sign up to the WA then that would be a shocking outcome. Don't you want an opportunity to tell the Government that this would be unacceptable? Or are you willing to leave it up to them? You seem to be saying that signing up to the WA is not what you want but how can millions like us stop them?

    On the border issue, I've pointed out before that there are solutions, I've even posted links to some of them, they have been explained by numerous bodies and individuals, but the EU does not want a solution, so one cannot be agreed. Once we have left it will surprise you how soon a workable solution is in place. But can you explain something to me, because you obviously spend far more time considering the Irish border problem than I do, both sides agree that a trade deal solves the problem, how will the border work then ?
    Well, can you ask Boris and his mates to clearly spell out how the border will work from October?
    Regarding the "both sides agree that a trade deal solves the problem" Well, I suppose it depends on what exactly the trade deal contains. To have frictionless trade and an open border I can't see any way it can be done without having some kind of customs union (as we currently have). Perhaps Boris will be kind enough to explain his idea?


    I still fail to understand your concerns about a trade deal with the USA. We already trade with the USA, I haven't checked but I'm assuming it is one of our biggest trading partners, and not being an expert by any means, I'm also assuming we trade with them on WTO terms. Any bespoke trade deal we agree with them will have to be better than the current WTO terms or we won't be signing up to it. So if it's going to be better than the existing arrangements, as it must be, then what is it you are so afraid of ?

    Some info here Sinkov https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
    The fact is that reduced trade with the EU, and trading on less favorable terms with the EU, means that we need to make it up with trading deals with other countries.
    As you say, the USA is very important to us at the moment - in fact it is our biggest trading country. But to ramp up the trade, agree trading standards, tariffs etc with Mr Trump may well entail him demanding a say on our dealings with other countries. We have recently been fostering relations with China for instance and if he insists that we don't deal with Huawei then that would sour these relations. Doing a deal with the USA also means accepting their trading standards - some of which are unacceptable to the EU, which further complicates matters.
    Without doubt, the USA holds all the aces in any trade negotiations with us - but we may be forced to accept their demands otherwise we really would be in a difficult position once we leave the EU.
    And no, I don't know any more than you do about this stuff - we have just reached different conclusions.

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    You want an explanation of how the border will work after we leave 59 ? I can't give you an answer, I am no expert on how any borders work, I have no idea even on how it works now, and more to the point, it's not my problem. The backstop is only in operation until we agree a trade deal, so both sides agree therein lies a solution, you can either believe them or not, up to you. I really wouldn't know and am beyond caring.

    The EU has encapsulated Article 50 in it's Treaty of Rome, this gives us the legal right to leave the EU, either with a withdrawal agreement or without one, thus we are leaving the EU in one of two ways, both of them perfectly acceptable to the EU, they are their terms and we will be leaving fully in accordance with them.
    Our government offered us a choice, our parliament passed the legislation for the EU referendum, thus confirming that they agreed with us having that choice. We voted to leave, our parliament then passed the laws necessary for us to enact the decision to leave, both major parties stated in their last manifestos that they would honour the result of the referendum. So we are where we are now because of decisions taken by politicians, bureaucrats and civil servants in both Brussels and London, and with the full agreement and confirmation of both the EU and our parliament, everything has been done by the book. If this presents an apparently insurmountable problem on the Irish border, then it's their doing, not mine, it's their problem, not mine, it's up to them to find a solution, not me. There are thousands of them 59, employed at my and your expense in London and Brussels, paid to solve these problems, they have given us a legal means to leave the EU, and we are taking it, when we do leave on October 31st as we are legally entitled to do, obliged to even, under The EU's Treaty of Rome Article 50, I have every confidence that these massively expensive bureaucracies on both sides of the channel, will rise to the challenge and suddenly find an answer to this confected problem, it's what we pay them for after all isn't it, but it's not my problem either way, and I won't be losing any sleep over it.
    Last edited by sinkov; 18-06-2019 at 07:33 AM.

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    Everything you say there is perfectly true Sinkov. And I honestly understand your position.

    But...if the vote in 2016 had been "Do you want to leave the EU under the terms of the WA and PD as agreed between the UK and the EU or remain" then how would you have voted?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 1959_60 View Post
    Everything you say there is perfectly true Sinkov. And I honestly understand your position.

    But...if the vote in 2016 had been "Do you want to leave the EU under the terms of the WA and PD as agreed between the UK and the EU or remain" then how would you have voted?
    It's an impossible question to answer 59, because in 2016 there was no way of knowing what that agreement would be, and it didn't matter anyway, everyone knew and accepted that A 50 specified that we leave either with an agreement or without one. There was no secret about it, A50 was quite clear and specific, if our parliamentarians didn't want to leave without an agreement they shouldn't have voted to accept it, but they did, so I have no sympathy for them whining about it now.

    If you want to be more realistic my answer to your question right as of today, would be that I would prefer staying in the EU to this WA, but that's the whole point of it really, it's been designed to persuade us to remain. Our parliament blocks leaving without a WA, the WA is worse than remaining and will also be blocked by parliament, so what's left ? Revoke A50, that's what, very clever, it was close to working, it might even work yet, but Sir Nigel has seen through it, kick started the Tories into taking Brexit seriously, and it's a whole new ball game. We're still playing extra time though, the result is still in doubt, the game's not over yet. And 17.4 million people look on incredulously.

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    My money is on leaving in October with Theresa's Withdrawal Agreement. I don't think Parliament will allow no deal.

    And we will pay the price for years to come.

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    I still don't see how parliament can over-ride an EU treaty 59, it's not in their gift. If the WA doesn't pass then the default is we leave without one. It is possible that parliament could force us to ask for a further extension, but then it would be up to the EU, it wouldn't be our decision.

    Perhaps I'm missing something here, could you expain to me just how our parliament can take leaving without a WA off the table ? They could of course revoke our application to leave, but they wouldn't dare do that, and I doubt they have the numbers for it anyway. So how do they do it ?
    Last edited by sinkov; 18-06-2019 at 09:17 AM.

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    I just think that if it came down to the wire, this time for real, then Parliament would make the decision to accept the deal.

    But who knows? Perhaps we will leave with no deal by default as you explain.

    The trouble is that our politicians have proved that they are useless in negotiations, do you expect them to negotiate good trade deals for us with other major players?

    We can only hope for the best.

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    We don't know how good the Brexiteers are at negotiating 59, Mrs May soon sidelined the lot of them, I can't imagine they would be any worse than the Remainers who have dumped us into this mess. But maybe I'm being unfair, it's possible our Remain negotiators and the EU have deliberately engineered this farce, so that staying in seems the sensible option, in which case I congratulate them on a job well done.

    I don't worry about trade deals, we already trade with most of the world on WTO terms and that will continue after we leave. For me this is no longer about trade or the economy it's about something far more important, the survival of democracy in this green and pleasant land. I'm still waiting to hear from Remainers what they expect to replace it, if they do manage to overturn the result of the referendum. They're about as vague on that as Boris is on getting us out of the EU.

  19. #19
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    It's simple really Sinkov.

    Once the deal has been agreed it goes back to the voters for confirmation that it is what they want. If the majority of people want it then it happens. If the majority of people don't want it then it doesn't.
    It's a totally different question and at the end of the day it is the people who will decide.

    I agree that revoking article 50 would be undemocratic though. And leaving with no deal has little support (which may surprise a lot of people on here!)
    But to be fair, I think that "no deal" should be on the ballot too. Then it really is the peoples choice.

    If we leave with Theresa's deal then not many people will have got what they voted for.

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    " If the majority of people want it then it happens."

    Sounds fair enough to me, let's go then 59, on that basis there's no need for any more referendums, confirmatory votes or whatever. We leave the EU, and we leave according to Article 50. So if we can't ratify the WA, we leave without one. It really is that simple.

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