If Gove was a remoaner he’d want another vote!

[WBA123]

Hello 123.
On point 1 you rather destroy your own arguement. If you are correct then every country bar 1 has managed to do a deal with the EU on terms better than WTO so why can't we as the the biggest customer of the EU manage to negotiate a deal? £8 billion is our net contribution. The figure you should be looking at is EU sales to the UK of around £350 billion which is an awful lot of pennies for them to be 'throwing down the street.'

You then go on to blast Farage (yawn yawn) rather than address my 2nd point. What do you see as the future when the Italian economy fails? I guess you see strength in unity. I just don't buy into this 'one size fits all' and I see a domino effect. This will then lead to Germany/France and the other stronger nations creating a First Division with even stronger ties than now. Otherwise called a United States of Europe.

What is your vision of the the EU when the sh1t well and truly hits the fan? Unity or everyman for himself?

Your 1st paragraph confuses me, because I thought Leavers generally speaking wanted to leave without a deal? They mostly do on this board. But yes, virtually any deal will be better than trading on WTO terms, that includes May's deal, but it still won't be as good as staying in the EU in my opinion. The problem is a deal requires compromise, and I think almost any deal will get shouted down by our right wing press and Leave politicians.

My main concern with Brexit is trade actually. The figure you rightly state we import is around £350bn, we have a trade surplus, which is true also. But it's relative. If all trade was to stop tomorrow between the EU and UK. They would lose £350bn trade to us, split between 500m people. We would lose £250bn trade to them split, between 60m people. That's why we will suffer more than they will, it will literally hit us much harder then the EU.

In terms of the Greece/Italy situation. When you have 28 member states, the law of averages will say you will have countries within the EU who have stalling economies, debt and growth issues. Italy certainly have that. But I would argue Greece have benefited by being an EU member, they were bailed out and its economy is improving. You could certainly say the same for Ireland too. Its not like the EU have cut either adrift, they bailed them both out and agreed fiscal measures to help their economies improve. In terms of your last question, the EU has united to bailout struggling economies before, generally speaking it has been a successful organisation. It has its problems, but what the EU gives us is access to the largest trading bloc in the world. Why put up trade barriers to that?

Tony Blair talks a lot of sense about Brexit. His view, which I share, is that Trade deals are about bargaining power and clout. We have more bargaining power and influence from within the EU because of the combined consumers and GDP, than we do alone. If you're an outside country, you would more likely prioritise trade with a larger economy, with more consumers and would naturally allow them more concessions too.

[9goals2hattricks3pen]

Your 1st paragraph confuses me, because I thought Leavers generally speaking wanted to leave without a deal? They mostly do on this board. But yes, virtually any deal will be better than trading on WTO terms, that includes May's deal, but it still won't be as good as staying in the EU in my opinion. The problem is a deal requires compromise, and I think almost any deal will get shouted down by our right wing press and Leave politicians.

My main concern with Brexit is trade actually. The figure you rightly state we import is around £350bn, we have a trade surplus, which is true also. But it's relative. If all trade was to stop tomorrow between the EU and UK. They would lose £350bn trade to us, split between 500m people. We would lose £250bn trade to them split, between 60m people. That's why we will suffer more than they will, it will literally hit us much harder then the EU.

In terms of the Greece/Italy situation. When you have 28 member states, the law of averages will say you will have countries within the EU who have stalling economies, debt and growth issues. Italy certainly have that. But I would argue Greece have benefited by being an EU member, they were bailed out and its economy is improving. You could certainly say the same for Ireland too. Its not like the EU have cut either adrift, they bailed them both out and agreed fiscal measures to help their economies improve. In terms of your last question, the EU has united to bailout struggling economies before, generally speaking it has been a successful organisation. It has its problems, but what the EU gives us is access to the largest trading bloc in the world. Why put up trade barriers to that?

Tony Blair talks a lot of sense about Brexit. His view, which I share, is that Trade deals are about bargaining power and clout. We have more bargaining power and influence from within the EU because of the combined consumers and GDP, than we do alone. If you're an outside country, you would more likely prioritise trade with a larger economy, with more consumers and would naturally allow them more concessions too.

The point I'm making is if all the other countries find it easy to make a deal then why can't we. If we left on WTO terms it would be within EVERYONE'S interests to get a deal done and done quickly. That is what I believe will happen.

The Greek situation was made far worse by the EU. Had Greece been on its own they would have had to face up to reality far earlier and their situation would have been less painful They (Germany) continued to support it to unsustainable levels until they well and truly crashed. Italians hate the Euro with a passion. Its economy is 10 times that of Greece and when it fails the problem for the EU will be 10 times bigger. In the present climate can you honestly see the cityzens of Europe supporting their politicians whilst they bail out Italy in the same way? I can't.

Problem with the Blair option is we are doing deals to look after the interests of 28 countries rather thah our own. We have tarrifs on oranges for instance to protect Spanish growers.

I truly believe within my lifetime the EU as it is now will not be around. Either there will a United States of Europe or the whole flawed concept will simply fall apart and when that happens the further away from it we are the better.

[kettering_baggie]

123, you mention that May’s deal is better than no deal, actually I believe that May’s deal is a non deal; it is a withdrawal agreement and there is nothing in it to guarantee what terms we would have in any aspect of a future trade deal. If we were not to agree trade terms with the other EU nations then we would be stuck with the withdrawal agreement indefinitely, as per the much hated ‘backstop’. It has been stated many times and it is true that the best deal is the one that we already have!

[9goals2hattricks3pen]

123, you mention that May’s deal is better than no deal, actually I believe that May’s deal is a non deal; it is a withdrawal agreement and there is nothing in it to guarantee what terms we would have in any aspect of a future trade deal. If we were not to agree trade terms with the other EU nations then we would be stuck with the withdrawal agreement indefinitely, as per the much hated ‘backstop’. It has been stated many times and it is true that the best deal is the one that we already have!

Sorry Ketts but is absolutely NOT true that the deal we have is the one we already have. That may be true for the EU but what about the other 150+ countries we can trade with where the deal is to suit all 28 of the EU not the UK

Last week I was in the company of the Operations Director of a cheese manufacturer in Dorset. Their biggest export customer (40% of all sales) is the States. He is concerned about Brexit mostly staff recruitment but by far a bigger concern is the threat of US tariffs on EU cheese. Conversly if we were free to negotiate a deal to suit the UK it could result in increased sales.

Please in future refrain from making the mistake many Remainers indulge in their stating opinions as matter of facts

[WBA123]

Sorry Ketts but is absolutely NOT true that the deal we have is the one we already have. That may be true for the EU but what about the other 150+ countries we can trade with where the deal is to suit all 28 of the EU not the UK

Last week I was in the company of the Operations Director of a cheese manufacturer in Dorset. Their biggest export customer (40% of all sales) is the States. He is concerned about Brexit mostly staff recruitment but by far a bigger concern is the threat of US tariffs on EU cheese. Conversly if we were free to negotiate a deal to suit the UK it could result in increased sales.

Please in future refrain from making the mistake many Remainers indulge in their stating opinions as matter of facts

If its a choice between a deal with the EU or remaining, then I agree with him that our better option is to remain.

If its a choice between leaving with no deal or with a deal, then our best option is to negotiate a deal. The upheaval leaving without a deal will cause could end up being the stuff of nightmares.

I'm still confused as to your position, do you want to leave with a deal or without?

Interesting you mention about the cheese, why do you think the US would give the UK a better tariff than the EU? And don't you think the increase in tariffs are largely down to a sitting president who is starting trade wars and may not even be in office next year?

[kettering_baggie]

Sorry Ketts but is absolutely NOT true that the deal we have is the one we already have. That may be true for the EU but what about the other 150+ countries we can trade with where the deal is to suit all 28 of the EU not the UK

Last week I was in the company of the Operations Director of a cheese manufacturer in Dorset. Their biggest export customer (40% of all sales) is the States. He is concerned about Brexit mostly staff recruitment but by far a bigger concern is the threat of US tariffs on EU cheese. Conversly if we were free to negotiate a deal to suit the UK it could result in increased sales.

Please in future refrain from making the mistake many Remainers indulge in their stating opinions as matter of facts

Don’t tell me to refrain from anything; I’ll say what I f***ing like. Why would the EU give us a better deal than what we already have as a member of the EU? If they did, other members would likely follow suit. What some ‘Leavers’, eg Boris & co, advocated during the referendum was a ‘ have your cake and eat it deal’ scenario, which for the reason that I have just stated, W was never going to happen. Whether you wish to leave or remain, the fact remains that the public, ie us, were lied to during that referendum campaign. Personally, I do not believe that such a momentous decision should be taken on on the back of lies, do you?

[9goals2hattricks3pen]

Nowhere have I or would I ever ask you to refrain from saying what the' f***** you like' I merely ask that you state it not as a matter of truth but of opinion which it clearly is!

IMO leaving without a deal is now (it wasn't 3 years ago) the best option to obtain us a good deal. A deal btw that is good for us and them. That should be a gimmee but UK incompetence and EU intransigence has combined to prevent it so far.

As regards a 2nd vote what makes you think Remainers and Brexiteers would suddenly start giving us the balanced views rather than lies this time around?

It wasn't me who thought the US would give UK cheesemakers a better deal it was the cheesemaker who said that. I assume there is some basis for his company thinking that.

And after all 'blessed are the cheesemakers'

[WBA123]

Nowhere have I or would I ever ask you to refrain from saying what the' f***** you like' I merely ask that you state it not as a matter of truth but of opinion which it clearly is!

IMO leaving without a deal is now (it wasn't 3 years ago) the best option to obtain us a good deal. A deal btw that is good for us and them. That should be a gimmee but UK incompetence and EU intransigence has combined to prevent it so far.

As regards a 2nd vote what makes you think Remainers and Brexiteers would suddenly start giving us the balanced views rather than lies this time around?

It wasn't me who thought the US would give UK cheesemakers a better deal it was the cheesemaker who said that. I assume there is some basis for his company thinking that.

And after all 'blessed are the cheesemakers'

I have said it before, anyone who advocates a No Deal Brexit really has no grasp of international trade or WTO terms. It will create havoc and make us poorer.

Good question regards how another referendum would be balanced this time, I have no idea. It would need some kind of impartial group to give us the facts. But when Farage blasts experts and impartial groups who's information he disagree's with what chance have you got....

What is the basis for his opinion, this cheesemaker? Because most cheese from the EU comes from the UK and France. So one of the main reason for the high tariffs is UK made Cheese. I would have thought it would be more likely the US would increase the tariffs for the UK rather than decrease them.

[regis80]

I’m intrigued to know, if we are going to be so better off - then why is that, not a single European company is moving its base to the UK? As it stands, it seems as though it is the other way round - companies are leaving the UK.

[WBA123]

I’m intrigued to know, if we are going to be so better off - then why is that, not a single European company is moving its base to the UK? As it stands, it seems as though it is the other way round - companies are leaving the UK.

Or why the WTO Director General dismissed Boris Johnson's Brexit plan and said that Brexit is like the UK jumping from League 1 to League 3.

This is the man literally in charge of the WTO.

Brexit defies all logic.