No deal doesn't make for a less complex situation mate, it makes for a more complex one. As a business owner, I've spent the last few years not knowing what terms I'd be trading on after Brexit, and no deal is actually way more complex than the current one since tariffs vary drastically across industry sectors and nobody else in the world deals on those terms - this will mean all sorts of practical difficulties if we suddenly move to that overnight in October. Many of our partners are based in the EU too, and none of us know what's going to happen! There's actually a chance we might be out of business, sadly, since we've only just turned a profit and the weakening pound is posing some real difficulties to our whole model. Same with my dad's company, and that's a much bigger and more robust firm in a totally different sector. It's pretty devastating!
Also, the idea that we buy in more than we sell to them being an advantage for us isn't
necessarily so. If tariffs on EU goods go up as a result of no deal, then the theory this idea works on is that fewer people will buy theirs products, which is obviously bad for those businesses. But ultimately if people need or want those goods, they'll just pay more for them, so it's the British public who end up out of pocket since the costs are passed back to us by those manufacturers/retailers (the same obviously goes in the other direction too). You then have to look at what is being sold, and who is buying, to work out whether the theoretical advantage will apply. My guess is that wine-drinkers are more interested in
quality than in price (though not with a total disregard to value, obviously), so if a good French wine goes from £10 per bottle at the supermarket to £11 per bottle, it isn't going to put a lot of people off. But I'd guess that the demand for British wine isn't quite as high as it is for French or Italian, so it's likely our winemakers will get the ****ty end of the no deal stick. The same goes for German car manufacturers - those of us who drive BMWs or Mercedes probably bought them because of the quality and
despite the price (there are way cheaper cars on the market that can get us from A to
. It might be a different story for fruit, or something else, but the reality is that businesses on both sides are going to be adversely affected - and plenty have already been even prior to leaving.