O/T:- Who needs Parliament?

[Skatorna]

If Bozo is so much smarter than we give him credit for on the left, then please account for his performance at PMQ on September 4th. Was that all part of the master plan too? It was quite one of the most shockingly inept performances ever witnessed at the despatch box and actually made Theresa May look like she was an orator and stateswoman by comparison.
I have met many people in my teaching career who have 1st's and 2 i 's at Oxbridge but totally lack nous. Johnson is another.

One swallow doesn't make a summer.

The man on the clapham omnibus neither watches nor cares about PMQ's. They might catch the 30 second clip on the news but thats about it; and if Boris can appear to be standing up against remainers during those 30 seconds then it is more than enough to win the hearts of the 52+%. All Boris has to do is show passion and consistency to actually do what Parliament should have done over the last 3 years and deliver on the referendum result after it was ratified.

If you think someone who can be an incredibly successful journalist, MP, Mayor of London for two terms, leader of the Conservative Party and still "totally lack nous" then I need to find somewhere to dump all this troublesome nous that is holding me back! Considering that scandal has done nothing but propel him forward from one success to another, I think your evaluation is worthless and undoubtedly tinted with some red-flag coloured spectacles.

I'm not a Conservative by any stretch of the imagination; never have voted for them and unless they have some drastic policy changes I never will, but if you seriously buy the narrative that the remainers are winning right now and take it simply at face value then all that shows up is in fact your own lack of nous and critical thinking.

[SmiffyPie]

Of course it is. But surely we knew that at the start?

Well no we didn't. You must be old enough to remember the way it was sold to us and the way it worked when we were chasing membership? A trading group, a common market for the members. You know that.

[seriouspie]

The truth is, neither states nor politicians (including unelected EU politicians) are ultimately as important as they like to think they are. Business and money make the world go round and those businesses will find ways to trade the way they need to, even if they have to go over, under or around any petulant, temporary measures and obstacles put in place by officialdom from the UK or the EU. Disruption by definition is temporary, be it caused by political disagreement, terrorism, wars or natural disasters. Life then carries on.

Correct ....... We are a trading nation by birthright, we have to be as we (unlike the US) are not self sufficient. We trade what we have in exchange for what we want the same as most nations do. We are a small island in the north Atlantic with not too many natural resources but we are still one of the richest countries on the planet. I was once ostracised by the Fatboy for even dare to suggest that a countries wealth is dictated by business - but men with self belief and optimism will always overcome the negative, its the way it is and always will be, otherwise you go under. Another small point .... the hysterical BBC is currently pushing the 'Yellow Hammer' documents as further doom and gloom to a receptive negative audience who know f'call about business. For the uninitiated, this is common business practice and is known as a Risk Assessment. All companies selling their goods or services will deliberate any types of problems prior to a market launch that their goods may encounter in that market. These problems are then solved prior to launch or brought down to an acceptable but overcome-able level over a short period of time.

[BigFatPie]

Here's a link to the Operation Yellowhammer: HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...address-motion

Anyone who voted Leave and did not expect a significant period of disruption must have been casting their vote in fantasy land, or perhaps didn't read the document circulated by the Government to every household in the country - at the public's expense - foretelling the worst case scenario as they sought to scare folk into voting Remain.

For the most part the Yellowhammer documents reiterate the types of disruption that have already been trailed in the media. I don't think many people will be surprised at this stage by the types of disruption being forecast, and some of the 'detail' is still speculative as well as being by definition 'Worst Case'. There are plenty of words like 'could' and 'may' and 'likely' in there.

However, of particular interest is paragraph two on page one, which states:

"The relationship between the UK and the EU as a whole is unsympathetic, with many Member States (under pressure from the Commission) unwilling to engage bilaterally and implementing protections unilaterally, though some Member states may be more understanding".

As revealed by this paragraph, and subsequent bullet points within the document, the EU has in some respects actively refused the UK's offers to find/fund solutions that would make certain elements of the transition easier.

Like the mafia, this is not a club you are welcome to leave of your own free will, or that you are supposed to leave at all. It is not a healthy relationship of mutual co-operation between friends. This is an organisation that resents the departure of one of its biggest benefactors and is inclined to be at least awkward, if not openly hostile in its desire to make this process as difficult as it can.

I have absolutely no doubt that many if not most individual European countries would wish to continue friendly relations with us, albeit some more enthusiastically than others, but the European Union as an entity is not anybody's friend. It is a self-serving, malevolent, undemocratic bureaucracy whose ultimate aim has always been to undermine the sovereignty of its members, control increasing amounts of their resources and ultimately create a United States of Europe.

The message could not be clearer: any member state of the EU that shows a willingness to be overly understanding, sympathetic or cooperative with the UK post Brexit will come under pressure from the Commission not to do so.

Why would we want to be a part of an organisation that not only resents a member's sovereign right to exercise its free will to leave, but which then coerces remaining members to play their part in punishing that state for making such a choice?

I suspect many will conclude that a period of intense disruption - if it materialises - is a small price to pay to escape this trap.

Interesting post. So you’re saying that ‘Project Fear’ was in fact valid and that anyone who didn’t believe it was “casting their vote in fantasy land’?

That also obviously implies as well that we shouldn’t have believed those on the winning side of the referendum who said we’d get a great deal and sunny uplands?

[SwalePie]

I know, I've been laughing at him spouting his Sunreader politics with his new woolly friends!

I'm not in denial that there are corrupt EU politicians. I just think they are preferable to the corrupt Tory politicians we have now.

What does PSML mean?

Pleasuring Some More Loonies?

[SmiffyPie]

Of course it is. But surely we knew that at the start?

Apologies, misunderstood. You obviously mean at the start of this leave cock up.

[BigFatPie]

Correct ....... We are a trading nation by birthright, we have to be as we (unlike the US) are not self sufficient. We trade what we have in exchange for what we want the same as most nations do. We are a small island in the north Atlantic with not too many natural resources but we are still one of the richest countries on the planet. I was once ostracised by the Fatboy for even dare to suggest that a countries wealth is dictated by business - but men with self belief and optimism will always overcome the negative, its the way it is and always will be, otherwise you go under. Another small point .... the hysterical BBC is currently pushing the 'Yellow Hammer' documents as further doom and gloom to a receptive negative audience who know f'call about business. For the uninitiated, this is common business practice and is known as a Risk Assessment. All companies selling their goods or services will deliberate any types of problems prior to a market launch that their goods may encounter in that market. These problems are then solved prior to launch or brought down to an acceptable but overcome-able level over a short period of time.

The Yellow hammer documents aren’t a worst case scenario, they’re a base scenario but they’ve been renamed when the government was forced to publish them.

How many deaths due to a shortage of medicines do you think are acceptable?

[jackal2]

Interesting post.

Thank you.

So you’re saying that ‘Project Fear’ was in fact valid and that anyone who didn’t believe it was “casting their vote in fantasy land’? That also obviously implies as well that we shouldn’t have believed those on the winning side of the referendum who said we’d get a great deal and sunny uplands?

'Project Fear', as the name implies, was an exaggeration of the truth. Not entirely without validity, but some claims were certainly speculative and overblown. To be fair, the same could be said of some Vote Leave claims. You get hyperbole in most elections and referenda, so it's up to the voters to decide what they believe and what they don't.

I've said several times on here that anyone who voted Leave without appreciating that there would be a significant period of disruption would have been very naïve. It doesn't take great powers of deduction to realise that if you leave a system you've been locked into for several decades, there will be a period of turbulence. However, you would have had to be equally naïve to believe all of forecasts of doom put out by Cameron's Government at the public's expense.

The Yellow hammer documents aren’t a worst case scenario, they’re a base scenario but they’ve been renamed when the government was forced to publish them.

Yes I've heard the semantic arguments going on between Michael Gove and Rosamund Urwin. The title of the document as published refers to 'Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions', whereas 'Baseline' is open to interpretation and can mean 'average' or 'lowest' depending on the context, so people can make their own minds up what they believe.

In my view, civil servants tend to err on the side of caution when they predict need and demand, to ensure they have an ample budget to cater for the worst case scenario (and a portion of bureaucratic incompetence). It's only public money after all, so they may as well estimate for a bit too much contingency rather than too little. The only time I've known civil servants underestimate a budget requirement is when they're trying to convince their political masters to sign off a public infrastructure vanity project, after which the cost usually skyrockets!

How many deaths due to a shortage of medicines do you think are acceptable?

Most deaths are due to a range of factors so it will probably be difficult to measure, if a shortage occurs at all. Put it this way, if we can aim for a figure lower than the deaths caused by NHS negligence, including the misuse or failure to administer available medicines, then I wouldn't say it's acceptable but it would no doubt be fewer.

[Elite_Pie]

Well no we didn't. You must be old enough to remember the way it was sold to us and the way it worked when we were chasing membership? A trading group, a common market for the members. You know that.

You seem to misunderstand. I was saying that at the time of the Brexit vote we knew the EU wouldn't make it easy for us to leave.

Oops! Just read your later post.

[Elite_Pie]

Objection your honour,speculation!! you have as much idea about what will happen post Brexit as anybody else, it will be interesting to see which thrives and which fails after it is all over the EU or the UK.

True, I must have a look at this Yellowhammer document the government have produced on the possible effects of a no deal Brexit.

I'm sure it will predict a thriving economy, lower unemployment and much shorter NHS waiting lists.