O/T:- Who needs Parliament?

[drillerpie]

I have not seen these projections raised here, but one of the reasons for getting out of the EU.....is that the countries making up the "bloc" are in terminal decline, compared with the growing economies of the World, namely Asian countries, plus Russia, Mexico and Brazil.

PwC produce regular projections of each country's GDP "league position", both current and projected, and the decline of Germany, France, Spain and most notably Italy (who virtually fall off the economic ladder) is startling.
The UK, post-Brexit, position is relatively healthy compared to the other larger EU members (though PwC anticipate short-term issues then a decent recovery once the "shackles" are removed)

I will let you all play around with the interactive model below, but the summary points are
Germany - Falls from 5th in 2016, to 7th in 2030 and 9th in 2050
France - Falls from 10th to 11th to 12th
Italy - Plunges from 12th to 15th then 21st!!
Spain - Likewise plunges from 16th to 17th then 26th

The UK (post-Brexit) is quite bullish at 9th to 10th and holding 10th until 2050 ie no further decline, why? Because ALL THE WORLD GDP growth, relative to each other, is coming from emerging nations like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey ie countries OUTSIDE OF THE EU.

The 7 emerging nations are set to be DOUBLE the size of the current G7 countries USA, UK, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada.

Whilst I appreciate that these are only projections, the writing has clearly been on the wall since 2016.......as an example, Mexico, as an E7 nation, (in GDP PPP terms) are projected to overtake France in 2025, Italy are already below Mexico and Mexico overtake Germany in 2042 and the UK in 2030, 11 years from now!!

For those that eschew the PPP model, you can change the stats to GDP in actual terms by altering buttons on the graph ie Mexico catch the UK in 2048? Germany in 2055? France in 2043 and Italy in 2031.

Basically, it's my long-winded way of saying the West is in serial decline, emerging economies are where the real growth is and the UK, post-Brexit, are in a superb position to benefit (and the model predicts exactly that)

I agree that the West has reached a plateau and that Asia will catch us up and probably surpass us at some point (apart from the past few hundred years Asia was always an industrial powerhouse) but what I don't understand is how in 2050 say, we're going to be better off dealing with a powerful India and an immensely powerful China alone.

[magpie_mania]

Control of our armed forces sounds incredible. Could you expand on that?

Waiting for this answer!

So you are saying this, yet during all the debates not one of those opposed to it mentioned it?

Project fear reaches a whole new level

[drillerpie]

I agree that the West has reached a plateau and that Asia will catch us up and probably surpass us at some point (apart from the past few hundred years Asia was always an industrial powerhouse) but what I don't understand is how in 2050 say, we're going to be better off dealing with a powerful India and an immensely powerful China alone.

No edit function on my phone so want to change industrial powerhouse to commercial powerhouse (for obvious reasons!)

[navypie]

You might be interested to find that there's a section of Barniers, sorry, May's Withdrawal Abomination which gives the EU, during the transitional period, control of our Armed Forces.
Oh, and there will be absolutely no change whatsoever regarding fishing rights around Britain.
It ain't all about the so-called Backstop.

Well, I'm not here spitting feathers if that's what you hoped I would say,my days serving Queen & Country have long since passed. I will, however, say that the thought of having to work alongside the French Navy is not a pleasant one.

[Elite_Pie]

Don't be a silly-billy Elite, you and your family will still be able to afford your foreign holidays.....Tarquin's promise, nothing will change

My prediction from the start was that nothing much would change, but that the average family would be around 5% worse off. Nothing that's happened since has changed that opinion.

You are correct about my holidays, and I will shortly be contributing to the Mexican economy again.

[tarquinbeech]

I found this little beauty tucked away in some EU briefing notes from last month (sad Tarkers reading EU briefings at 5am, get a life man!!) entitled "Summer 2019 Economic Forecast: Growth clouded by external factors" Brussels, 10 July 2019.

Now we all know about "project fear" and the fact that after Brexit we are all going to have to return to post-war rationing, "dig for victory" and everyone will be given a cook-book on how best to prepare "road-kill" for a family of four (dispose of the bicycle first btw)....well I thought that surely the EU must have projected some figures for the loss of trade, 10% seemed reasonable? 20% seemed a bit alarmist but hey-ho, I'll have a read......guess what? .....the EU are predicting, last month, that the trade with the UK remains unaffected for 2019 and 2020....."surely not" I hear you cry, but Elite and Chubby and a few of their chums have been predicting Armageddon, catastrophe, public order meltdown...mmmm exactly....nope, the EU state that purely for forecasting purposes, they have predicted trade with the UK to be unaffected, though they are quick to point out that this "forecast" should not affect future negotiations with Boris.....hahaha, too late, I'm sure someone else will have tipped off the UK negotiators.
Now I'm sure that one or two might say "hold on Tarkers, maybe they were just being a bit lazy in not putting in a 10% drop in trade"...and my answer would be "...or maybe they are pretty confident that there will be some kind of deal, after we have left, and that trade will be unaffected"....we will soon find out.

Extract - "In light of the process of the withdrawal of the UK from the EU, projections for 2019 and 2020 are again based on a purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading patterns between the EU27 and the UK. This is for forecasting purposes only and has no bearing on future negotiations between the EU and the UK."

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-3850_en.htm

[Bohinen]

My prediction from the start was that nothing much would change, but that the average family would be around 5% worse off. Nothing that's happened since has changed that opinion.

You are correct about my holidays, and I will shortly be contributing to the Mexican economy again.

Given that most of us are about 25% worse off after 9 years of Conservative government, it will be hard to tell the difference. I will shortly be contributing to the US economy, have just been to France for the last time. On our last night, the waiter forgot to be rude so we left him a nice big tip in lieu of our Brexit settlement. It might be all they get under Boris.

[tarquinbeech]

My prediction from the start was that nothing much would change, but that the average family would be around 5% worse off. Nothing that's happened since has changed that opinion.

You are correct about my holidays, and I will shortly be contributing to the Mexican economy again.

Excellent news on the contributions to the United Mexican States (true official title), Pacific or Caribbean side this time?
Unfortunately I've blown all my spare dosh and my next bout of 7% savings interest (5.95% net, after our new Communist President takes his 15% cut) is not due until January (or I might have popped down from my mountain hideaway for a tipple with you)......have a great time.

[seriouspie]

Exactly, and seriouspie actually had the nerve and stupidity to criticise John Major with the words "He humiliated Norma his wife after admitting a four year affair with Edwina". That would be a valid criticism if Boris was whiter than white in the infidelity department, but he isn't. So seriouspie thinks that having a bit on the side is fine if you are pro-Brexit, but it's despicable if you aren't!!!

Sorry Jeremy, I publicly state that Boris is a philanderer so assume my previous statement is now valid. I never have criticised any man for 'a bit on the side' irrespective of political beliefs. The rule is .... never get found out - that's when criticism is valid.

[dam617]

Control of our armed forces sounds incredible. Could you expand on that?

I'm a nutshell, the EU will be able to deploy our Armed Forces (in non-combat situations) and there will be no British officers allowed to be in control.
Hmm I wonder what that would be needed for?