Big day in Parliament (Part 53)

[1959_60]

Well, the Government clain it is a "worst case scenario" but the leaked document, which is the same document was headed "Base Scenario". In other words, what the Government expects to happen.

For many, being a remoaner or a leaver is akin to supporting a footy team.
No matter what information becomes available, and no matter how good or bad it is, these people will never change their minds. They are too far down the rabbit hole and are digging their heels in.

So far I have only heard Nigel call Yellowhammer "Project Fear" which is, I suppose, progress of a small kind.

But I urge you to read the headline contents of Yellowhammer and tell me that only a self harmer would think a hard Brexit is a great idea.

And remember, YOU may be willing to put up with the consequences but are you really comfortable with imposing this stuff on your sons/daughters/grandchildren?

Your arguments are usually well made and based on the information available. You, and a lot more of your mind, seem to be supporting a hard Brexit for completely tribal reasons and seem unwilling to accept any form of information or the thoughts of "experts" (who tend to be ridiculed), and it is not a good look.

Anyroad, have a drink and enjoy your jollies!

[army88]

Wow, you have made a lot of assumptions about what I believe there Army.

I totally agree that we should celebrate people who have made money in legal ways. Our country needs them.

But this EU law will cut down on tax avoidance - surely you are against this? At the moment the UK is a leading nation in tax avoidance and it will become much more difficult when this law is enacted.

I am sure that you, like me, have always payed our taxes but there are a lot of very wealthy people, and businesses, who find ways to avoid it.

And these type of people and businesses will not be looking forwards to the new EU laws and would celebrate the UK leaving the EU with no deal.

You didn’t read the first bit 59-60 , why not incentivise the rich and famous and encourage them to keep their money in our country, surely we would be better of with it than off shore, tax loopholes aside I don’t agree with dodging tax but I’m sensible enough to realise that if we didn’t sting these people to the hilt and force them away from our country we’d have the use of their money which can only be good for us.

It was just a thought as everything now seems to be Brexit linked which it’s not.

[army88]

Spot on Sub.
Amber Rudd this week left and said it was because 80-90% of our time was focused on a Brexit no deal.
I would have asked her for a breakdown of the last three years on how much time she and her colleagues had spent actually getting a deal for our country.

Each and every one of them is ridiculous- it’s past the point of no return.

[army88]

I’m with it 59-60 and I believe Sinkov does have a balanced informed view, has it ever occurred to you that we might be better off ? you are pointing at experts and saying evidence says we’re wrong to leave with no deal, you may be right.( I myself said a deal is better but one that works for us ).
I can only attribute a playground scenario where the other countries within Europe are watching us from behind the school bully in Belgium they’re all united in a front against us the outcast for having our own opinions.

We’ve all seen it before though and when we leave and we will leave , one of those other kids ( countries ) will say we don’t like it either I think we’ll leave( the domino effect follows ) , then we can all go back to having a commonwealth that worked perfectly without us paying Billions into a pot in Belgium where someone else makes all our decisions for us.

Whilst laughing at our weak in adequacy to stand and fight our corner.

We really are a laughing stock

[sinkov]

Well, the Government clain it is a "worst case scenario" but the leaked document, which is the same document was headed "Base Scenario". In other words, what the Government expects to happen.

For many, being a remoaner or a leaver is akin to supporting a footy team.
No matter what information becomes available, and no matter how good or bad it is, these people will never change their minds. They are too far down the rabbit hole and are digging their heels in.

So far I have only heard Nigel call Yellowhammer "Project Fear" which is, I suppose, progress of a small kind.

But I urge you to read the headline contents of Yellowhammer and tell me that only a self harmer would think a hard Brexit is a great idea.

And remember, YOU may be willing to put up with the consequences but are you really comfortable with imposing this stuff on your sons/daughters/grandchildren?

Your arguments are usually well made and based on the information available. You, and a lot more of your mind, seem to be supporting a hard Brexit for completely tribal reasons and seem unwilling to accept any form of information or the thoughts of "experts" (who tend to be ridiculed), and it is not a good look.

Anyroad, have a drink and enjoy your jollies!

Bloody hell 59, I've just got back from a very pleasant week tramping the NY Moors and riding on steam trains, and I've had to look up this Yellowhammer thingy. This is what I've found,

"It is not a statement of government policy and probably does not reflect the views of government. It is rather a piece of civil service advice, commissioned by we know not who, and compiled we know not where."

"What is most striking is the almost complete absence of evidence in the document. What these ‘worst-case’ planning assumptions are based on is not vouchsafed to us. The title ‘HMG Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Assumptions’ does not make it clear whether these assumptions are proposals or have been adopted by government. The fact that the government intends to issue a new document suggests the former, but we are left in the dark."

"Yellowhammer is full of ‘woulds’ and ‘coulds’ but also contains some more confident predictions that things ‘will’ happen. The latter include a confident prediction that companies’ preparedness for no deal on October 31st will deteriorate between now and then. This is simply unknowable and can obviously be countered by official awareness campaigns, but there is no mention of this."

"French customs have for months been handing out leaflets on customs requirements to drivers, but it seems that we must assume a worst case in which most of this advice is ignored. Nor apparently should we assume that HMG could manage even this worst case by conducting its own document checks outside Dover. Apparently, the worst case is that HMG would simply sit back and watch the chaos unfold. The mind boggles."

"The prediction is that:
‘with significant disruption lasting for up to six months [if unmitigated] this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies… any disruption to medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease…. certain types of fresh food supplies would decrease’.
All of these apocalyptic scenarios have of course been enthusiastically broadcast by the press and media, but what do they really amount to? Apparently if UK logistics firms transporting to the Continent find themselves unable to deal with French customs forms for six months or more, and HMG finds itself quite unable to deal with this unlikely situation in any practical manner, queues will build up at Dover and perhaps at other roll-on/ roll-off ports. Well yes indeed. However, the report does quietly admit that other ports are prepared.
It does not point out that Dover is only the UK’s ninth largest port, handling only 5 per cent of the UK’s overall tonnage. Nor is there any speculation on how hauliers may switch to other routes to avoid congestion at Calais (which is precisely what the Calais port authorities fear). There is also no mention of precautions already taken by foreign producers who will wish to protect their UK markets."

There's plenty more in the same vein 59, but I won't labour the point. It does seem to me that Yellowhammer is part of that campaign labelled with two words, I know you don't like the term so I won't use it, but one word begins with P and the other F.

Just on the subject of 'worst case scenarios', has any organisation or government department produced a report yet on the consequences for democracy in this country of overturning the result of the largest ever democratic vote this country has ever seen, that the views of 17.4 million people are irrelevant and can be ignored on the whim of a few hundred MPs ? That would be an interesting read, but if such a report exists I must have missed it.

[1959_60]

Welcome back Sinkov!

I'm in Bournemouth for the Lib Dem conference, what an uplifting place to be. And I've just heard that we have got another ex Tory MP to see the light.

Tomorrow (because we are a democratic party) the members will decide if we make it party policy to revoke article 50 and remain without a further referendum if we gain power.

As for yellowhammer, you simply refuse to accept any information that doesn't come out of the mouth of Boris or Nigel do you? Even though this is an official Government document that is being used by Boris to try to address the issues of a no deal.

Who would you have used to write up the document? If it came to the same conclusion would you still (like Nigel, who appears to be on his own this time) call it Project Fear?

Come on then, who WOULD you trust to write up an impact assessment? Or do we not need one?

By the way, the ale down here is passable but not like our proper Northern brews. The pies are sh1te though.

[sinkov]

The point about it is 59 that no one knows who wrote it, there is no accreditation, nor any indication of where they have sourced their info, it is also a worst case scenario which assumes that everyone involved is an idiot and incapable of resolving even the most basic of problems.

It also appears to be quite an old document that has mysteriously re-surfaced, I wonder how and why that happened. Potential problems caused by us leaving without a WA should of course be addressed, but we've had two and a half years now to address those problems, plenty of time, so I have no concerns, everything will have been sorted by now, nothing to worry about.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

Does anyone other than a fanatical Lib Dem seriously believe a political party purporting to be "democratic" can win an election on a manifesto built around being anti-democratic? FFS get a grip.

[1959_60]

The Lib Dem conference is over now but we are spending another night in Bournemouth.

Never since the Wembley play off final have I seen a group of people absolutely driven and fanatical about their cause.

Jo Swinson will make mincemeat of the other leaders believe me.

And what is anti democratic about offering policies via a general election manifesto? That's what all the other parties (except the Brexit Party) will do. If the public agree with the policies they will vote for them. If they don't then they won't. That is exactly what democracy is.
If Labour offer a second referendum will they be anti democratic? Of course not. At a General Election a party has a clean slate to state their policies.
Vote Lib Dem and we remain and it will end the hours and hours of debate in Parliament so that our politicians can finally get round to discussing the NHS, Education, Climate Change, Social Care etc etc.

[sinkov]

Vote Lib Dem and we remain and it will end the hours and hours of debate in Parliament so that our politicians can finally get round to discussing the NHS, Education, Climate Change, Social Care etc etc.

I'm sure you had a great time 59 and thoroughly enjoyed it, but all that sunshine seems to have gone to your head. Do you seriously believe that if A50 is revoked and we stay in the EU that will be the end of it ? If you do believe that's the way to resolve this issue and put it to bed you are, with the greatest respect mon ami, delusional. 17 million people will be very cross indeed and Mr Farage and his Brexit party, with those 17 million people cheering him on will be in his element, it will be wonderful to behold.

The country is divided, Parliament is in meltdown, we don't have a government to speak of, it's a mess, but no matter the utter chaos now, cancel Brexit and believe you me 59, you ain't seen nothing yet.