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Thread: Form Table Thread

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwalePie View Post
    Great work to give us a simple visual to monitor. Thanks for the effort!
    No worries, I know it doesn't interest everyone but I think it will be interesting to see how things develop, very much like Old_pies thread from last season, just need to see the black line closer to the green line asap!

  2. #22
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    Now know what we need to do

    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Ok, so having a quick look over the last 5 seasons anything between 45 and 50 points gets you fourth from bottom, we need to finish fifth from bottom to be safe so I have based the following on assuming 50 pts needed for safety.

    That's a PPG average of 1.09 over the season and a PPG average needed from now of 1.08.

    Attachment 13859
    Thanks for that really interesting and worrying

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by upthemaggies View Post
    So 64 points needed from 36 games.
    Possible combinations.....

    W21 D1 L14
    W20 D4 L12
    W19 D7 L10
    W18 D10 L8
    W17 D13 L6
    W16 D16 L4
    W15 D19 L2
    W14 D22 L0

    We seem to be draw specialists under Ardley, but you can't see us losing less than 8. Winning 18 and drawing 10 is probably our best hope, barely realistic and will only look harder with every game we don't win.
    It certainly seems quite the challenge!

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    It certainly seems quite the challenge!
    I thought at the start of the season that we would finish in mid-table, and I still do. Whether that's just above or just below might come down to the bounce of a ball or our good or bad fortune with injuries, but I don't think we will be in serious contention for promotion or relegation. If we finish below 15th then I would be disappointed. If we finish in the play-offs I would be amazed.

    Next season, however, we must be serious contenders for at least the play-offs and possibly the title, otherwise whoever is in charge would have few excuses.
    Last edited by jackal2; 09-09-2019 at 03:51 PM.

  5. #25
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    Halifax preview:

    Town come to The Lane on Saturday currently 3rd in the NL form table with defeat at home to Yeovil last week knocking them off joint top with Woking and Bromley, this defeat coming on the back of a 5 game unbeaten run which included 4 wins with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded.

    Notts go into the game with just one defeat in the last 6, coincidentally to Yeovil, and will hope the new found comerarderie within the club will start to have a positive affect on the pitch, in a game that is likely to be another close encounter for the Pies.


    Current best odds (oddschecker.com):

    Notts win 6/5 with 888sport | Halifax win 12/5 with Bet Victor | Draw 13/5 with Bet365 and BetFred

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Ok, so having a quick look over the last 5 seasons anything between 45 and 50 points gets you fourth from bottom, we need to finish fifth from bottom to be safe so I have based the following on assuming 50 pts needed for safety.

    That's a PPG average of 1.09 over the season and a PPG average needed from now of 1.08.

    Attachment 13859
    Great visual......basically too many draws and the odd loss are keeping us pinned on the "red for relegation line" and just eyeballing the gap to the "green for go to the play-offs", we currently need at least 2 back-to-back wins....mmmm, when was the last time we achieved that?

    If we are still stuck on the red line in mid-season, then we would look like needing 4 or even 5 back-to-back wins to bridge the gap, very unlikely, and we will end up in a dog-fight at the bottom continually looking over our shoulder.

    Quite simply, we need to kick into some kind of motion pretty pronto......sounds easy huh?

  7. #27
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    I'm updating this before I lose myself in this lovely bottle of St Remy XO!

    Notts npw up to 7th in the form table with 9 points from the last 6 games and a GD of +3. Yeovil now top the form table with 12 points following 3 wins on the bounce, which as we know started with a victory over Notts.

    As for the points required for the ploy-off's or avoiding the drop the chart looks a little better this evening. Ardley's PPG for this season is now 1.27.

    Name:  points_needed_match11.JPG
Views: 1276
Size:  84.4 KB

    Right back to the celebrating, we haven't been able to do it much of late so I'm going to make the most of it!

  8. #28
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    First time I've noticed this chart. Good work, og. It's simple but effective. I'll be keeping my eye on this thread throughout the season.

    Dip below the red line and we're in trouble. Get above the green line and a trip to Wembley could be on the cards.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by 60YearsAPie View Post
    First time I've noticed this chart. Good work, og. It's simple but effective. I'll be keeping my eye on this thread throughout the season.

    Dip below the red line and we're in trouble. Get above the green line and a trip to Wembley could be on the cards.
    Thanks

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by 60YearsAPie View Post
    First time I've noticed this chart. Good work, og. It's simple but effective. I'll be keeping my eye on this thread throughout the season.

    Dip below the red line and we're in trouble. Get above the green line and a trip to Wembley could be on the cards.
    Agreed, I love charts like this and as you say it's simple but effective. A few years ago in my running days I set myself a target of running 1,000 kilometres in a year. That would be modest to a serious runner, but I was a casual runner trying to fit it around work and family commitments. I created a similar graph and it proved to be a huge incentive, even though it only consisted of target kms v actual kms. If I dropped below the target line, it made me determined to get off my arse just so the line didn't beat me.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    I'm updating this before I lose myself in this lovely bottle of St Remy XO!

    Notts npw up to 7th in the form table with 9 points from the last 6 games and a GD of +3. Yeovil now top the form table with 12 points following 3 wins on the bounce, which as we know started with a victory over Notts.

    As for the points required for the ploy-off's or avoiding the drop the chart looks a little better this evening. Ardley's PPG for this season is now 1.27.

    Name:  points_needed_match11.JPG
Views: 1276
Size:  84.4 KB

    Right back to the celebrating, we haven't been able to do it much of late so I'm going to make the most of it!
    Thanks for doing this itís a good indicator to review every week and is simple. Please keep it going throughout the season.

    As a comparison to last season it took us until 6th November to get to 14 points.

    On current PPG of 1.27 we would be on course to finish on 59 points which would have us finish in 14th place last season (where Chesterfield finished)

    We would require 61 points from 35 matches to finish on 75 points which would have got a playoff place last season. So thatís 1.74 points per game.

    17 points from the next ten games would need to be W5, D2, L3. That means based on the first ten games converting draws to wins.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAD_MAGPIE View Post
    17 points from the next ten games would need to be W5, D2, L3.
    Really? Wouldn't winning four and drawing five of the next ten games also yield 17 points?

  13. #33
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    Joint 5th in the defence table now.

    Joint 7th in the home record table.

    Joint 10th in offence.

    14th best away record.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    I'm updating this before I lose myself in this lovely bottle of St Remy XO!

    Notts npw up to 7th in the form table with 9 points from the last 6 games and a GD of +3. Yeovil now top the form table with 12 points following 3 wins on the bounce, which as we know started with a victory over Notts.

    As for the points required for the ploy-off's or avoiding the drop the chart looks a little better this evening. Ardley's PPG for this season is now 1.27.

    Name:  points_needed_match11.JPG
Views: 1276
Size:  84.4 KB

    Right back to the celebrating, we haven't been able to do it much of late so I'm going to make the most of it!
    And a nice uptick making an appearance. Well done.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by upthemaggies View Post
    Joint 5th in the defence table now.

    Joint 7th in the home record table.

    Joint 10th in offence.

    14th best away record.
    Will be interesting to see how these pan out. Good to see the defence is starting to get it together and we should really be making the prospect of playing at ML intimidating to our opponents not enticing so would be good to see that position increase which would also impact on the offensive table. I think away games in this league are always going to be a bit of a lottery.

  16. #36
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    Bromley Preview:

    The Magpies travel to SE London on saturday to face a Bromley side brimming with confidence and yet to lose a game so far this season.

    Bromley currently occupy 2nd place in the NL table on 23 points, 1 point behind the leaders Woking. They have 6 wins and 5 draws with a healthy +7 GD.

    Unsurprisingly bookies appear to have The Ravens (also known as The Lillywhites) as close favourites considering their impressive start but it is worth noting that they are yet to face anyone with realistic top 7 credentials. Additionally they currently sit in 5th place in the last 6 games form table, just two places above Notts in 7th.

    Notts league position remains finely balanced and depending on results elsewhere a win could see them in the top ten for the first time this season, likewise a defeat could mean being just a couple of points clear of the relegation zone.

    Current odds:

    William Hill currently have Bromley to win @ 13/10 | Bet365 have Notts to win @ 13/5 and a draw @ 5/2.

    If your feeling positive about Notts William Hill are currently offering 5/1 for Notts win and BTTS or 16/1 for a Notts 2-0 correct score.

  17. #37
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    The Ravens or the Lilywhites ! There's a huge amount of confusion there, we should be able to take advantage.

  18. #38
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    Match 12 sees Notts drop to 12th place in the form table on 8 pts from 6 games with W2 D2 L2. We now find ourselves 16th in the league 3 points off the drop zone and 5 points off the play offs. Wrexham have a game in hand though and a win for them in that game would see us just one point off the relegation places.

    Our next opponents Boreham Wood are starting to find a bit of form, are unbeaten in the last 3 and have leapfrogged us both in the league and the form table. Additionally our opponents on Saturday, Fylde have managed to get a much needed win yesterday which will give them some confidence when they visit The Lane for a game that could see the NL attendance record broken due to the Notts ticket offer.

    Please accept my apologies but here is the updated points needed graph:

    Name:  points_needed_match12.JPG
Views: 503
Size:  84.8 KB

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Match 12 sees Notts drop to 12th place in the form table on 8 pts from 6 games with W2 D2 L2. We now find ourselves 16th in the league 3 points off the drop zone and 5 points off the play offs. Wrexham have a game in hand though and a win for them in that game would see us just one point off the relegation places.

    Our next opponents Boreham Wood are starting to find a bit of form, are unbeaten in the last 3 and have leapfrogged us both in the league and the form table. Additionally our opponents on Saturday, Fylde have managed to get a much needed win yesterday which will give them some confidence when they visit The Lane for a game that could see the NL attendance record broken due to the Notts ticket offer.

    Please accept my apologies but here is the updated points needed graph:

    Name:  points_needed_match12.JPG
Views: 503
Size:  84.8 KB

    It's our away record that's dragging us down, only four other clubs have collected fewer points on the road than us.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by upthemaggies View Post
    It's our away record that's dragging us down, only four other clubs have collected fewer points on the road than us.
    Yep, that’s a good point UTM, only 5 points out of a possible 18 on the road so far this season. That would indicate NA’s propensity to set up more defensively/negatively away from home. From what I’ve seen so far this season we are so much better as a team when we take the game to the opposition.

    NA was unfortunate that he was forced into three changes for yesterday’s game but I do think his fear of losing got the better of him meaning he wasn’t brave enough to bring Bird into the fray allowing McCrory to stay at left back. This would have meant the team would remain balanced and still maintain the attacking threat they displayed against Halifax.

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