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Thread: Form Table Thread

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by upthemaggies View Post
    It's our away record that's dragging us down, only four other clubs have collected fewer points on the road than us.
    Our home form isn't anything to write home about either ,we've only lost once but 9 points from 6 home games is hardly turning the lane into a fortress.

    The fact is we are inconsistent,home or away doesnt seem to matter, with NA's notts we just dont know what to expect week to week,the one thing you can guarantee though is that if we win one game we won't win the next.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by bridpie78 View Post
    Our home form isn't anything to write home about either ,we've only lost once but 9 points from 6 home games is hardly turning the lane into a fortress.

    The fact is we are inconsistent,home or away doesnt seem to matter, with NA's notts we just dont know what to expect week to week,the one thing you can guarantee though is that if we win one game we won't win the next.
    Iím on a roll with stats this morning so carrying this on. Our home form is 9th in the League;

    P6, W2, D3, L1, GF9, GA5, GD+4, Pts 9

    Win Ratio 33.3%
    PPG 1.5
    Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 35 points

    Our away form is 17th in the league which is more reflective of our league position.

    P6, W1, D2, L3, GF7, GA9, GD-2, Pts 5

    Win Ratio 16.7%
    PPG 0.83
    Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 19 points

    So the conclusion to this is that going forward to improve we need to turn draws at home into wins to make Meadow Lane a fortress. Then turn defeats on the road into draws so which means becoming more solid away from home as we have lost half our away games so far.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAD_MAGPIE View Post
    I’m on a roll with stats this morning so carrying this on. Our home form is 9th in the League;

    P6, W2, D3, L1, GF9, GA5, GD+4, Pts 9

    Win Ratio 33.3%
    PPG 1.5
    Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 35 points

    Our away form is 17th in the league which is more reflective of our league position.

    P6, W1, D2, L3, GF7, GA9, GD-2, Pts 5

    Win Ratio 16.7%
    PPG 0.83
    Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 19 points

    So the conclusion to this is that going forward to improve we need to turn draws at home into wins to make Meadow Lane a fortress. Then turn defeats on the road into draws so which means becoming more solid away from home as we have lost half our away games so far.
    Win at home ,Draw away thats the dream of every club, 2ppg, 92pts for the season and taking the title at a canter, its not going to happen is it?

    Even if we started on that unrealistic run of form we've already thrown away over 1/4 of a season for14 points so if we started next game getting 2ppg we'd get to 82 which is safely inside the playoffs.

    Realistically we're going to lose and draw more than we win this season, at the moment we're heading to around 55-56 points, that doesnt allow much room for getting any worse than we are already, 50 or less and we're going to be watching a NLN team next season

    I feel like we're right where we were last year.,a little in denial,surely we're too big to go down,things will pick up,there will be 2 teams worse than us(we need 4 to be worse than us this year)

    I've seen nothing to suggest that our form or consistency and ppg will improve

    Look at our 3 wins

    Harrogate, we were outplayed for 45 minutes,they missed a pen then we went and scored one a minute later,they played the 2nd half with ten men and totally outplayed us,we got a lucky break scoring a second against the run of play. good result butvery lucky to take all 3 points

    Chorley, we went down 1-0 and were outplayed for most of the first half, we had a 25 minute spell of playing very well and every shot we had ended up in the net, 5-1 i think anyone there would agree the scoreline flattered us and was unkind to chorley, good in a short spell but overall poor.

    Halifax, Overall a steady if not spectacular performance, they weren't much of a threat, we did improve when down to ten men and got a goal and held on, on another day we could easily have lost or drawn that and couldn't have complained, the nature of the battling win with ten men makes you forget that for much of the game it was on a knife edge.


    We've probably had more luck and good fortune than we had the whole of last year already and those 9 points could so easily have been 2 or 3 or 4 and our position would be very much worse than it looks right now, can we rely on luck for the rest of the season to get us the safety of mid table?

    And WTF are we talking about midtable safety for we have one of the largest,strongest squads ever assembled in NL history, are we happy winning 1 game in 5 and finishing below maidenhead,dover,bromley,barrow,borehamwood and teams like stockport and torquay who last year we were 2 leagues above! Have we become so used to being whipping boys that we're ok with 1 win in 5 as long as we dont go down again.

    Poor.....Ardley out
    Last edited by bridpie78; 22-09-2019 at 12:34 PM.

  4. #44
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    Ok, bear with me as things have started getting a bit more interesting.

    The much needed away win at BW last night moved us up to 11th in the league on 17 points, 2 points off the play offs but still only 3 points ahead of 20th place Aldershot.

    Wrexham are in 21st on 11 points, meaning we are currently 6 points clear of the relegation places but they still have a game in hand so erring on the side of caution I have assumed they will win that game in hand. This will give us a worst case figure in the progress graph.

    In the form table we are currently 13th with 8 points from the last 6 games, however if you take the last 10 games we sit in 7th place on GD with 16 points. This at least shows some improvement considering just 1 point gained from the opening 3 games.

    Our current PPG rounded up is 1.31. If we continue at this rate we will finish the season on 60pts. However, our PPG for the last 10 games is 1.6, if we continue at that rate for the remaining 33 games we would finish with approximately 70 points. At the moment that would get us a play off spot.

    Home form so far P6 W2 D3 L1 GF9 GA5 GD+4
    Away form so far P7 W2 D2 L3 GF9 GA10 GD-1

    We are averaging 1.38 goals scored per game and conceding 1.15 goal per game.

    I have altered the graph slightly so that the points needed for top 7 and relegation actually reflect the points situation at the end of each round of games.

    At the moment 7th place is averaging 1.46 PPG meaning the target for a play off spot currently sits at a fraction over 67 points.

    Assuming Wrexham win their game in hand would mean 21st place is currently averaging 1.07 PPG meaning the target for safety would have to be more than 49 Points.

    Interestingly there are only 5 points separating 7th to 20th but 10 points separating 7th to 1st place. Yeovil appear to be on a ridiculous run right now with 6 wins on the trot and Bromley remain unbeaten after beating 2nd place Woking last night.

    From a Notts perspective things do on paper appear to look a little more positive, W4 D4 L2 in the last 10 games maybe shows a steady move in the right direction, a win on saturday would certainly help with that.

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  5. #45
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    Halifax have lost 3 of their last 4, so looks like they may be about to repeat last season's collapse under Fullarton after a very strong start.
    I'd expect Bromley to come off the rails before long as well, the title could end up being wide open as the more obvious big name or big spending clubs are struggling and I wouldn't be surprised if Yeovil end up taking the title. Think we may live to regret not picking up a few more points in the early weeks of the season and not winning at Ebbsfleet.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by upthemaggies View Post
    Halifax have lost 3 of their last 4, so looks like they may be about to repeat last season's collapse under Fullarton after a very strong start.
    I'd expect Bromley to come off the rails before long as well, the title could end up being wide open as the more obvious big name or big spending clubs are struggling and I wouldn't be surprised if Yeovil end up taking the title. Think we may live to regret not picking up a few more points in the early weeks of the season and not winning at Ebbsfleet.
    Yes, I think you might be right, it could be wide open come Christmas.

    Just looking at Yeovil's 6 wins on the trot and they should probably not get too carried away . . .

    Notts County @ home won 3-1 - Apparently we should have got more from that game.
    Sutton Utd @ home won 1-0 - Sutton currently 19th and only 1 win in last 8 games.
    Halifax @ away won 2-0 - One of Halifax's 3 defeats in last 4 games that you mentioned.
    AFC Fylde @ home won 3-2 - Fylde have struggled to get going this season and currently sit 15th after a win last night.
    Solihull @ away won 1-0 - Solihull currently in 10th place on same points as Notts
    Aldershot @ away won 3-1 - Aldershot currently in 20th place and done very little so far to suggest they won't be in another relegation battle.

    Yeovil play Bromley at home on saturday so that could be quite telling.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Ok, bear with me as things have started getting a bit more interesting.

    The much needed away win at BW last night moved us up to 11th in the league on 17 points, 2 points off the play offs but still only 3 points ahead of 20th place Aldershot.

    Wrexham are in 21st on 11 points, meaning we are currently 6 points clear of the relegation places but they still have a game in hand so erring on the side of caution I have assumed they will win that game in hand. This will give us a worst case figure in the progress graph.

    In the form table we are currently 13th with 8 points from the last 6 games, however if you take the last 10 games we sit in 7th place on GD with 16 points. This at least shows some improvement considering just 1 point gained from the opening 3 games.

    Our current PPG rounded up is 1.31. If we continue at this rate we will finish the season on 60pts. However, our PPG for the last 10 games is 1.6, if we continue at that rate for the remaining 33 games we would finish with approximately 70 points. At the moment that would get us a play off spot.

    Home form so far P6 W2 D3 L1 GF9 GA5 GD+4
    Away form so far P7 W2 D2 L3 GF9 GA10 GD-1

    We are averaging 1.38 goals scored per game and conceding 1.15 goal per game.

    I have altered the graph slightly so that the points needed for top 7 and relegation actually reflect the points situation at the end of each round of games.

    At the moment 7th place is averaging 1.46 PPG meaning the target for a play off spot currently sits at a fraction over 67 points.

    Assuming Wrexham win their game in hand would mean 21st place is currently averaging 1.07 PPG meaning the target for safety would have to be more than 49 Points.

    Interestingly there are only 5 points separating 7th to 20th but 10 points separating 7th to 1st place. Yeovil appear to be on a ridiculous run right now with 6 wins on the trot and Bromley remain unbeaten after beating 2nd place Woking last night.

    From a Notts perspective things do on paper appear to look a little more positive, W4 D4 L2 in the last 10 games maybe shows a steady move in the right direction, a win on saturday would certainly help with that.

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    Loving the graph!

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by slack_pie View Post
    Loving the graph!
    Will look better if we can get to a point where the red line isn't needed!

  9. #49
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    If we won the games we should have....i.e. Wrexham at home and Ebbsfleet away, that would give us a further 4 points. Arguably, we should have got a point against Bromley and Barnet too, so that's 2 more. obviously, that's all conjecture...but we could easily be in the playoffs already had things gone to plan.

    It's much more fun than last season anyway.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by MancMagpie View Post
    If we won the games we should have....i.e. Wrexham at home and Ebbsfleet away, that would give us a further 4 points. Arguably, we should have got a point against Bromley and Barnet too, so that's 2 more. obviously, that's all conjecture...but we could easily be in the playoffs already had things gone to plan.

    It's much more fun than last season anyway.
    Yeah, I would say on the whole we've dropped more points than we've gained so far this season. A lot of the poor results we got could have easily gone another way. Playoffs really should be the aim at this stage.

    I agree, this season is so much more fun than last season. I go into every game, home or away, thinking that we might get a result. Last season I just expected the worst to happen every week, and it usually did.

    It would be fantastic for the club and fans to be involved in a promotion push this season, even if it means sneaking into 7th on the final day.

  11. #51
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    I think this is an excellent thread.
    Perhaps we need an extra line for the top 3.
    Teams in positions 4th to 7th have an extra 2 matches to play in quarter final play offs.

    Am I becoming too optimistic ??

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1955pie View Post
    I think this is an excellent thread.
    Perhaps we need an extra line for the top 3.
    Teams in positions 4th to 7th have an extra 2 matches to play in quarter final play offs.

    Am I becoming too optimistic ??
    I don't believe that you can ever be too optimistic

    i think playoffs in the NL are still one legged affairs with the higher team getting home advantage, its tough for a team in 4th/7th to go up because they effectively have to win 3 games in a week......tough but we are Notts and impossible is nothing
    Last edited by bridpie78; 26-09-2019 at 08:32 PM.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1955pie View Post
    I think this is an excellent thread.
    Perhaps we need an extra line for the top 3.
    Teams in positions 4th to 7th have an extra 2 matches to play in quarter final play offs.

    Am I becoming too optimistic ??
    I had thought of that but didn’t think want to tempt fate, if we win Saturday I’ll add it in!

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    I should be working but it's monday and I'm struggling for motivation, a little like Notts really, so I've done some maths instead. Apologies to those in advance who don't find this interesting.

    Based on the last 5 seasons it seems 75 points in this league will get you in the top 7, so a play off spot. I thoink at the beginning of the season and maybe even now most of us would be ecstatic with that so I have used this points total as a minimum benchmark.

    The chart below will plot the points gained vs points needed in order to achieve 75 points.

    Some key data:
    Starting from now we will need a points per game average of 1.78.
    Ardley's PPG average in total as a manager currently stands at 1.23
    Ardley's PPG average so far with Notts is 0.98
    Ardley's PPG average so far this season is 1.10
    Yes, in the FL, 70/71 pts can get you 7th place. In the conference, weaker teams in the bottom half means that 75pts is the norm.
    I think that's 58pts needed from 33games

    W17 D7 L9 or
    W16 D10 L7

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_anticlough View Post
    Yes, in the FL, 70/71 pts can get you 7th place. In the conference, weaker teams in the bottom half means that 75pts is the norm.
    I think that's 58pts needed from 33games

    W17 D7 L9 or
    W16 D10 L7
    74 last year 73 year before.

  16. #56
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    AFC Fylde Preview:

    Last seasons NL play off finalists, like Notts have had an indifferent start to the season but visit ML today having recorded back to back wins in their last two games, a feat Notts will be hoping to replicate for the first time since February.

    Fylde currently sit 16th in the league, 1 point behind Notts and with a GD of -3. Notts should take some encouragement from the fact that Fylde have already shipped 21 goals this season and two thirds of those away from home.

    There are a couple of interesting games involving teams in the places just above Notts which means that although there is an outside chance that a win today could see us in the top 7 today it is probably unlikely.

    As expected there’s not much in it with the bookies generally making Notts slight favourites.

    William Hill currently offering Notts 23/20 | Fylde 23/10 | Draw 12/5.

    It’s going to be one of those days today where we either balls it up completely in front of a big crowd or put on a great performance, get the 3 points and break the NL attendance record. Fingers crossed for the latter!

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    I should be working but it's monday and I'm struggling for motivation, a little like Notts really, so I've done some maths instead. Apologies to those in advance who don't find this interesting.

    Based on the last 5 seasons it seems 75 points in this league will get you in the top 7, so a play off spot. I thoink at the beginning of the season and maybe even now most of us would be ecstatic with that so I have used this points total as a minimum benchmark.

    The chart below will plot the points gained vs points needed in order to achieve 75 points.

    Some key data:
    Starting from now we will need a points per game average of 1.78.
    Ardley's PPG average in total as a manager currently stands at 1.23
    Ardley's PPG average so far with Notts is 0.98
    Ardley's PPG average so far this season is 1.10

    Attachment 13858
    No i wouldnt be ecstatic with a play off place

    I would expect this, as an absolute minimum requirement. It should be automatic notts aim for

  18. #58
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    Well I did say most, not everyone.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by queenslandpie View Post
    74 last year 73 year before.
    And 76, 75, and 75 before that

  20. #60
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    55pts needed from 32 games. Already looking better!
    W16 D7 L9

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