📈Form Table Thread

[bridpie78]

Thanks Brid.I did originally look at past 5 seasons and assumed 75pts would/should be the target {post 15) so I understand what you’re saying. However I realised this isn’t a KPI graph for the benefit of the team it’s a performance chart to map how we are doing in real time and to help forecast our final position throughout the season compared to key benchmarks ie playoffs and relegation.

As it stands it’s highly likely the points required for a playoff spot will be less than 75 but that could change and it will be good to monitor how that changes as the season progresses.

realistically that points target will likely be +/- 5 points so either way I don’t suppose it will have a dramatic impact on the chart.

03.00 in the morning and its finally come to me why it feels wrong!

Lets say the team in sitting in 7th at any given week are currently on a ppg average of 1.5 ,your predicted 7th place points total is based on them earning 1.5 pts per game for the rest of the season and stayng in 7th
But.... a team right down in 15th place are 5 points behind them and are on a particularly good run and are getting 2.5 pts per game, the form team are the ones in 15th and their predicted total for the season will be considerably higher than the team currently in 7th but they are not considered at any point until they reach 7th which won't be for at least 5 games if everything stayed the same, but at the point they reach 7th the bar for finishing 7th takes a jump up which throws the target/comparison for Notts out of whack and our position on the black line in relation to the target green line changes unpredictably

In reality the team earning 2.5 pts per game will probably go on and get more than 75 points and not be the final target club to catch anyway as they will likely finish higher than 7th, thus there will be another unexpected wobble as the season comes to a close and our line in relation to the target green line will be up and down week to week right up to the last day of the season.

Soooooo to get an idea of our relation to 7th place right now or at any point in time you simply need to look at the league table, if you want a progress meter to show our likelyhood of finishing inside the playoff positions then 75pts seems the likely benchmark given previous seasons results show that to be the case.

A more complicated route which would take you much more time to sort out your weekly updates is work out the current form ppg for each of the 24 teams for a given number of games for what im going to call the 'form period' (5games?6games? 10 games?)and then add their predicted total based on current form to their actual points total to give you a final predicted table which would tell you how many points it would take to finish 7th

All of which would be nonsense because form is temporary and noone knows how a team will do over an extended period and all we do know for sure is that to be guaranteed a playoff place you need 75 points and to avoid relegation you need 50 points.

Tell me if i'm overthinking it....it is a nice chart

[bridpie78]

BTW on current form with a form period of 5 games

Yeovil would win the league on 122 points
Barrow be in 2nd on 116 points

Allowing for a draw in their remaining head to head

Notts would finish with 84 points safely inside the playoffs

[ncfcog]

BTW on current form with a form period of 5 games

Yeovil would win the league on 122 points
Barrow be in 2nd on 116 points

Allowing for a draw in their remaining head to head

Notts would finish with 84 points safely inside the playoffs

Get all that Brid and some very good points in your previous post. It did dawn on me last night that you could just look at the table by using latest ppg so I think I will revert back to the original format where I took the average points needed for 7th and safety based on last 5 seasons. Originally the idea was these would set genuine targets, by changing to the dynamic ppg method it’s just showing how we are doing at that time compared to the teams in 7th and 21st.

Its a wet miserable Sunday and once I’ve walked the dog and done a few jobs I’ll have nothing better to do

[bridpie78]

Get all that Brid and some very good points in your previous post. It did dawn on me last night that you could just look at the table by using latest ppg so I think I will revert back to the original format where I took the average points needed for 7th and safety based on last 5 seasons. Originally the idea was these would set genuine targets, by changing to the dynamic ppg method it’s just showing how we are doing at that time compared to the teams in 7th and 21st.

Its a wet miserable Sunday and once I’ve walked the dog and done a few jobs I’ll have nothing better to do

This makes me very happy

[ncfcog]

Ok so after some very good points raised by Bridpie I have reverted back to the original 'targets' of 75pts will get you in the play off's and 50pts will see you safe. By doing this we still have clear targets to aim for (hopefully top 7). With the dynamic target lines changing every week it would be no different to just looking at the league table.

To make it a bit more interesting though I have added a trendline to our actual progress which 'predicts' how many points we will finish on at the end of the season based on our actual PPG to date. So as you can see in the graph below after 14 games if we continue to gain points at the current rate we will finish on 65-66pts. A couple more wins and this prediction will increase, likewise lose a couple and it will decrease.

I'm a big fan of Ben Mayhew and his statistical analyis which you can find on his website https://experimental361.com/ If I can find the time I will try to replicate some of his analysis so it is relevant to Notts as I don't think he is doing NL stats this season.

[bridpie78]

Ok so after some very good points raised by Bridpie I have reverted back to the original 'targets' of 75pts will get you in the play off's and 50pts will see you safe. By doing this we still have clear targets to aim for (hopefully top 7). With the dynamic target lines changing every week it would be no different to just looking at the league table.

To make it a bit more interesting though I have added a trendline to our actual progress which 'predicts' how many points we will finish on at the end of the season based on our actual PPG to date. So as you can see in the graph below after 14 games if we continue to gain points at the current rate we will finish on 65-66pts. A couple more wins and this prediction will increase, likewise lose a couple and it will decrease.

I'm a big fan of Ben Mayhew and his statistical analyis which you can find on his website https://experimental361.com/ If I can find the time I will try to replicate some of his analysis so it is relevant to Notts as I don't think he is doing NL stats this season.

Perfect!! i might get some sleep tonight

[ncfcog]

Current form table for last 6 games https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=5

[ncfcog]

So having spent most of this afternoon trawling google for match stats it appears obtaining reliable match data for non league is in fact pretty much impossible. Was happily working away on data from UK Soccerway until I got to the Chorley game and it recorded just 1 shot on target for Notts, in a game that we actually scored 5 goals! Also, some games have absolutely no stats at all other than goals and goal scorers.

Any stats site suggestions much appreciated. Maybe some of the betting sites might have historical match data?

[bridpie78]

So having spent most of this afternoon trawling google for match stats it appears obtaining reliable match data for non league is in fact pretty much impossible. Was happily working away on data from UK Soccerway until I got to the Chorley game and it recorded just 1 shot on target for Notts, in a game that we actually scored 5 goals! Also, some games have absolutely no stats at all other than goals and goal scorers.

Any stats site suggestions much appreciated. Maybe some of the betting sites might have historical match data?

its hard to find anything on individual matches,even assists you'd probably have to watch match highlights and award them yourself you might like this one though for overall stats and tables and form

https://www.soccerstats.com/pmatch.a...nty-chorley-fc

there is no way betting sites will hold match data for anything beyond 24 hours after the game itd be an awful waste of capacity for them for no reason

https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england5

[BigFatPie]

I know not strictly form related but I thought I post a link to the latest National League odds.

We’ve moved into 12s for the title. Somewhat surprisingly Bromley are fairly short odd favourites, but Yeovil look a better bet to me.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football...-league/winner