📈Form Table Thread

[bridpie78]

It's our away record that's dragging us down, only four other clubs have collected fewer points on the road than us.

Our home form isn't anything to write home about either ,we've only lost once but 9 points from 6 home games is hardly turning the lane into a fortress.

The fact is we are inconsistent,home or away doesnt seem to matter, with NA's notts we just dont know what to expect week to week,the one thing you can guarantee though is that if we win one game we won't win the next.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Our home form isn't anything to write home about either ,we've only lost once but 9 points from 6 home games is hardly turning the lane into a fortress.

The fact is we are inconsistent,home or away doesnt seem to matter, with NA's notts we just dont know what to expect week to week,the one thing you can guarantee though is that if we win one game we won't win the next.

I’m on a roll with stats this morning so carrying this on. Our home form is 9th in the League;

P6, W2, D3, L1, GF9, GA5, GD+4, Pts 9

Win Ratio 33.3%
PPG 1.5
Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 35 points

Our away form is 17th in the league which is more reflective of our league position.

P6, W1, D2, L3, GF7, GA9, GD-2, Pts 5

Win Ratio 16.7%
PPG 0.83
Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 19 points

So the conclusion to this is that going forward to improve we need to turn draws at home into wins to make Meadow Lane a fortress. Then turn defeats on the road into draws so which means becoming more solid away from home as we have lost half our away games so far.

[bridpie78]

I’m on a roll with stats this morning so carrying this on. Our home form is 9th in the League;

P6, W2, D3, L1, GF9, GA5, GD+4, Pts 9

Win Ratio 33.3%
PPG 1.5
Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 35 points

Our away form is 17th in the league which is more reflective of our league position.

P6, W1, D2, L3, GF7, GA9, GD-2, Pts 5

Win Ratio 16.7%
PPG 0.83
Season Predicted Total (23 games) = 19 points

So the conclusion to this is that going forward to improve we need to turn draws at home into wins to make Meadow Lane a fortress. Then turn defeats on the road into draws so which means becoming more solid away from home as we have lost half our away games so far.

Win at home ,Draw away thats the dream of every club, 2ppg, 92pts for the season and taking the title at a canter, its not going to happen is it?

Even if we started on that unrealistic run of form we've already thrown away over 1/4 of a season for14 points so if we started next game getting 2ppg we'd get to 82 which is safely inside the playoffs.

Realistically we're going to lose and draw more than we win this season, at the moment we're heading to around 55-56 points, that doesnt allow much room for getting any worse than we are already, 50 or less and we're going to be watching a NLN team next season

I feel like we're right where we were last year.,a little in denial,surely we're too big to go down,things will pick up,there will be 2 teams worse than us(we need 4 to be worse than us this year)

I've seen nothing to suggest that our form or consistency and ppg will improve

Look at our 3 wins

Harrogate, we were outplayed for 45 minutes,they missed a pen then we went and scored one a minute later,they played the 2nd half with ten men and totally outplayed us,we got a lucky break scoring a second against the run of play. good result butvery lucky to take all 3 points

Chorley, we went down 1-0 and were outplayed for most of the first half, we had a 25 minute spell of playing very well and every shot we had ended up in the net, 5-1 i think anyone there would agree the scoreline flattered us and was unkind to chorley, good in a short spell but overall poor.

Halifax, Overall a steady if not spectacular performance, they weren't much of a threat, we did improve when down to ten men and got a goal and held on, on another day we could easily have lost or drawn that and couldn't have complained, the nature of the battling win with ten men makes you forget that for much of the game it was on a knife edge.


We've probably had more luck and good fortune than we had the whole of last year already and those 9 points could so easily have been 2 or 3 or 4 and our position would be very much worse than it looks right now, can we rely on luck for the rest of the season to get us the safety of mid table?

And WTF are we talking about midtable safety for we have one of the largest,strongest squads ever assembled in NL history, are we happy winning 1 game in 5 and finishing below maidenhead,dover,bromley,barrow,borehamwood and teams like stockport and torquay who last year we were 2 leagues above! Have we become so used to being whipping boys that we're ok with 1 win in 5 as long as we dont go down again.

Poor.....Ardley out

[ncfcog]

Ok, bear with me as things have started getting a bit more interesting.

The much needed away win at BW last night moved us up to 11th in the league on 17 points, 2 points off the play offs but still only 3 points ahead of 20th place Aldershot.

Wrexham are in 21st on 11 points, meaning we are currently 6 points clear of the relegation places but they still have a game in hand so erring on the side of caution I have assumed they will win that game in hand. This will give us a worst case figure in the progress graph.

In the form table we are currently 13th with 8 points from the last 6 games, however if you take the last 10 games we sit in 7th place on GD with 16 points. This at least shows some improvement considering just 1 point gained from the opening 3 games.

Our current PPG rounded up is 1.31. If we continue at this rate we will finish the season on 60pts. However, our PPG for the last 10 games is 1.6, if we continue at that rate for the remaining 33 games we would finish with approximately 70 points. At the moment that would get us a play off spot.

Home form so far P6 W2 D3 L1 GF9 GA5 GD+4
Away form so far P7 W2 D2 L3 GF9 GA10 GD-1

We are averaging 1.38 goals scored per game and conceding 1.15 goal per game.

I have altered the graph slightly so that the points needed for top 7 and relegation actually reflect the points situation at the end of each round of games.

At the moment 7th place is averaging 1.46 PPG meaning the target for a play off spot currently sits at a fraction over 67 points.

Assuming Wrexham win their game in hand would mean 21st place is currently averaging 1.07 PPG meaning the target for safety would have to be more than 49 Points.

Interestingly there are only 5 points separating 7th to 20th but 10 points separating 7th to 1st place. Yeovil appear to be on a ridiculous run right now with 6 wins on the trot and Bromley remain unbeaten after beating 2nd place Woking last night.

From a Notts perspective things do on paper appear to look a little more positive, W4 D4 L2 in the last 10 games maybe shows a steady move in the right direction, a win on saturday would certainly help with that.

[upthemaggies]

Halifax have lost 3 of their last 4, so looks like they may be about to repeat last season's collapse under Fullarton after a very strong start.
I'd expect Bromley to come off the rails before long as well, the title could end up being wide open as the more obvious big name or big spending clubs are struggling and I wouldn't be surprised if Yeovil end up taking the title. Think we may live to regret not picking up a few more points in the early weeks of the season and not winning at Ebbsfleet.

[ncfcog]

Halifax have lost 3 of their last 4, so looks like they may be about to repeat last season's collapse under Fullarton after a very strong start.
I'd expect Bromley to come off the rails before long as well, the title could end up being wide open as the more obvious big name or big spending clubs are struggling and I wouldn't be surprised if Yeovil end up taking the title. Think we may live to regret not picking up a few more points in the early weeks of the season and not winning at Ebbsfleet.

Yes, I think you might be right, it could be wide open come Christmas.

Just looking at Yeovil's 6 wins on the trot and they should probably not get too carried away . . .

Notts County @ home won 3-1 - Apparently we should have got more from that game.
Sutton Utd @ home won 1-0 - Sutton currently 19th and only 1 win in last 8 games.
Halifax @ away won 2-0 - One of Halifax's 3 defeats in last 4 games that you mentioned.
AFC Fylde @ home won 3-2 - Fylde have struggled to get going this season and currently sit 15th after a win last night.
Solihull @ away won 1-0 - Solihull currently in 10th place on same points as Notts
Aldershot @ away won 3-1 - Aldershot currently in 20th place and done very little so far to suggest they won't be in another relegation battle.

Yeovil play Bromley at home on saturday so that could be quite telling.

[slack_pie]

Ok, bear with me as things have started getting a bit more interesting.

The much needed away win at BW last night moved us up to 11th in the league on 17 points, 2 points off the play offs but still only 3 points ahead of 20th place Aldershot.

Wrexham are in 21st on 11 points, meaning we are currently 6 points clear of the relegation places but they still have a game in hand so erring on the side of caution I have assumed they will win that game in hand. This will give us a worst case figure in the progress graph.

In the form table we are currently 13th with 8 points from the last 6 games, however if you take the last 10 games we sit in 7th place on GD with 16 points. This at least shows some improvement considering just 1 point gained from the opening 3 games.

Our current PPG rounded up is 1.31. If we continue at this rate we will finish the season on 60pts. However, our PPG for the last 10 games is 1.6, if we continue at that rate for the remaining 33 games we would finish with approximately 70 points. At the moment that would get us a play off spot.

Home form so far P6 W2 D3 L1 GF9 GA5 GD+4
Away form so far P7 W2 D2 L3 GF9 GA10 GD-1

We are averaging 1.38 goals scored per game and conceding 1.15 goal per game.

I have altered the graph slightly so that the points needed for top 7 and relegation actually reflect the points situation at the end of each round of games.

At the moment 7th place is averaging 1.46 PPG meaning the target for a play off spot currently sits at a fraction over 67 points.

Assuming Wrexham win their game in hand would mean 21st place is currently averaging 1.07 PPG meaning the target for safety would have to be more than 49 Points.

Interestingly there are only 5 points separating 7th to 20th but 10 points separating 7th to 1st place. Yeovil appear to be on a ridiculous run right now with 6 wins on the trot and Bromley remain unbeaten after beating 2nd place Woking last night.

From a Notts perspective things do on paper appear to look a little more positive, W4 D4 L2 in the last 10 games maybe shows a steady move in the right direction, a win on saturday would certainly help with that.

Loving the graph!

[ncfcog]

Loving the graph!

Will look better if we can get to a point where the red line isn't needed!

[MancMagpie]

If we won the games we should have....i.e. Wrexham at home and Ebbsfleet away, that would give us a further 4 points. Arguably, we should have got a point against Bromley and Barnet too, so that's 2 more. obviously, that's all conjecture...but we could easily be in the playoffs already had things gone to plan.

It's much more fun than last season anyway.

[slack_pie]

If we won the games we should have....i.e. Wrexham at home and Ebbsfleet away, that would give us a further 4 points. Arguably, we should have got a point against Bromley and Barnet too, so that's 2 more. obviously, that's all conjecture...but we could easily be in the playoffs already had things gone to plan.

It's much more fun than last season anyway.

Yeah, I would say on the whole we've dropped more points than we've gained so far this season. A lot of the poor results we got could have easily gone another way. Playoffs really should be the aim at this stage.

I agree, this season is so much more fun than last season. I go into every game, home or away, thinking that we might get a result. Last season I just expected the worst to happen every week, and it usually did.

It would be fantastic for the club and fans to be involved in a promotion push this season, even if it means sneaking into 7th on the final day.