O-T Global Climate Action Day

[tarquinbeech]

On a day when huge demonstrations around the world are in place, my contribution is once again to highlight the plight of the Arctic and Antarctic.
Why is the state of the sea ice so crucial?.....70% of our World is water, mostly in the form of oceans.
Water is basically the "dumping ground" or "hot water holding tank" of our world and absorbs all the excess heat, and the sea ice at opposite ends of our globe are the cooling methods to cool that water....it is one huge integrated model that mankind has managed to upset by fiddling with the heating controls!
A motor car would quickly over-heat if the cooling radiator was broken, blocked or had a hole in it.......we get closer every year to a "tipping point" where there will not be sufficient ice left at the poles to cool the ocean circulation....what happens then is anyones guess, huge thousand-year typhoons every week, somewhere in the world, to vent off the extra heat? (parts of Texas today have reached 4 feet of rain in 3 days, complete desolation, the Bahamas last week with hundreds dead and missing, parts of those islands completely obliterated)....these are no random experiences.

OK, scores on the doors.....date 17th Sept 2019, the Arctic (the North) reached it's lowest level for the year as we reach the September Solstice....and ONLY THE 2ND TIME CRASHED BELOW 4 MILLION SQ KMS....at 3.96 million
We have accurate data to compare this figure, satellites have been up over the poles since 1979....here are those stats....for the date of 17th Sept, by decade.

Arctic Ice 1980s - 7.3 million sq kms
1990s - 6.61
2000s - 5.49
2010s - 4.37
2019 - 3.96.....this is a monumental drop of ice, from 7.3 million to 3.96 million in only 40 years (all in my lifetime since leaving school in 1975, it's staggering and isn't slowing down!)

Now, the deniers will often say "ahhh, but the Antarctic is gaining ice"....is it?......let's have a look....remember, we are just measuring SEA ICE, ie the bit floating on top of the warming oceans. 17th Sept ie the height of the Southern winter, lot's of ice, or is there?

Antarctic Sea Ice - 1980s - 18.6 million sq kms
1990s - 18.49
2000s - 18.72...the 2000s was a good decade for the southern ice....but then
2010s - 18.6
2019 - 18.27

Add the 2 together for an accurate view of TOTAL WORLD SEA ICE....same date 17th Sept
1980s - 25.91
1990s - 25.1
2000s - 24.2
2010s - 22.97
2019 - 22.23......there is a fairly obvious pattern here, we are losing roughly between 800,000 and 1 million sq kms of sea ice every 10 years, not a problem?, we've got 22 million left x 10 years equals 200 years, plenty of engine coolant left before the engine grinds to a halt huh?.....I will leave others to speculate at which point in time does a "tipping point" occur where nature goes beserk in an effort to vent the planet....these are just figures after all, and most on here will be long gone by then, it's a problem for our grandkids to sort out...or is it?

Fact checker model, interactive...pick a date with the pointer.....2019 in red.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/exte...-15%2000:00:00

[bridpie78]

On a day when huge demonstrations around the world are in place, my contribution is once again to highlight the plight of the Arctic and Antarctic.
Why is the state of the sea ice so crucial?.....70% of our World is water, mostly in the form of oceans.
Water is basically the "dumping ground" or "hot water holding tank" of our world and absorbs all the excess heat, and the sea ice at opposite ends of our globe are the cooling methods to cool that water....it is one huge integrated model that mankind has managed to upset by fiddling with the heating controls!
A motor car would quickly over-heat if the cooling radiator was broken, blocked or had a hole in it.......we get closer every year to a "tipping point" where there will not be sufficient ice left at the poles to cool the ocean circulation....what happens then is anyones guess, huge thousand-year typhoons every week, somewhere in the world, to vent off the extra heat? (parts of Texas today have reached 4 feet of rain in 3 days, complete desolation, the Bahamas last week with hundreds dead and missing, parts of those islands completely obliterated)....these are no random experiences.

OK, scores on the doors.....date 17th Sept 2019, the Arctic (the North) reached it's lowest level for the year as we reach the September Solstice....and ONLY THE 2ND TIME CRASHED BELOW 4 MILLION SQ KMS....at 3.96 million
We have accurate data to compare this figure, satellites have been up over the poles since 1979....here are those stats....for the date of 17th Sept, by decade.

Arctic Ice 1980s - 7.3 million sq kms
1990s - 6.61
2000s - 5.49
2010s - 4.37
2019 - 3.96.....this is a monumental drop of ice, from 7.3 million to 3.96 million in only 40 years (all in my lifetime since leaving school in 1975, it's staggering and isn't slowing down!)

Now, the deniers will often say "ahhh, but the Antarctic is gaining ice"....is it?......let's have a look....remember, we are just measuring SEA ICE, ie the bit floating on top of the warming oceans. 17th Sept ie the height of the Southern winter, lot's of ice, or is there?

Antarctic Sea Ice - 1980s - 18.6 million sq kms
1990s - 18.49
2000s - 18.72...the 2000s was a good decade for the southern ice....but then
2010s - 18.6
2019 - 18.27

Add the 2 together for an accurate view of TOTAL WORLD SEA ICE....same date 17th Sept
1980s - 25.91
1990s - 25.1
2000s - 24.2
2010s - 22.97
2019 - 22.23......there is a fairly obvious pattern here, we are losing roughly between 800,000 and 1 million sq kms of sea ice every 10 years, not a problem?, we've got 22 million left x 10 years equals 200 years, plenty of engine coolant left before the engine grinds to a halt huh?.....I will leave others to speculate at which point in time does a "tipping point" occur where nature goes beserk in an effort to vent the planet....these are just figures after all, and most on here will be long gone by then, it's a problem for our grandkids to sort out...or is it?

Fact checker model, interactive...pick a date with the pointer.....2019 in red.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/exte...-15%2000:00:00

Some scientists have said that the last human being on Earth has already been born.

[ncfcog]

Some scientists have said that the last human being on Earth has already been born.

And likely a new planet to infestate has already been identified . . .

[tarquinbeech]

.....and just to explain why most of the losses are coming from the North, rather than the Southern ice.

The northern arctic is a complete floating ice sheet, anchored partly to Greenland in the deep winter months of Dec, Jan and Feb.
Once we hit the March solstice it begins to melt, detach itself and rotate freely on the warmer oceans coming up from Mexico.
Benjamin Franklin was assigned by the British Admiralty to track this flow of water (greater than the combined waters of every river on earth) as it tracked northwards past Florida and the Carolinas, picked up by the 30s and the roaring 40s and flung NE towards Ireland and onto Scandinavia. He did a remarkably decent job of tracking the 3 main currents that split off, cooled and returned southwards in a complete loop....Nature's Engine Cooling System, if you like......parts of the northern branch eventually gets under the Ice Sheet, does a full 360 and returns, at depth towards the south.....in summary, as the water at the equator gets hotter, it travels to the north pole eventually and melts the ice....we have data going back to 1979 to prove the ice is disappearing, fast, as the oceans warm up.

The South Pole is a completely different model however....it is gigantic ice sheet, over 1 mile thick sat on an island of solid rock. It is so vast, and so cold, that it creates it's own weather patterns and parts of the interior are the driest places on earth ie it is too cold to even rain.
The warming oceans cannot penetrate the land mass (though there is serious evidence now that it is under-mining the vast glaciers, particularly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet across from Patagonia....huge 50 mile blocks are breaking off every 5 or 6 years) but it does wipe out 90% of the sea ice every summer.
Quite simply, the central "1 mile thick ice block on a rock base" gives it a great start every winter, it grows sea ice outwards to between 18 and 20 million sq kms, and at or around the September solstice this starts to melt as the sun finally peeks over the horizon for the first time in 6 months, then it almost all melts down every year to approx 2 million of "hardy" ice hiding in the nooks and crannies of the more rugged coastline.....it's actually quite a boring "ice season" to watch compared to the more fluid and dynamic floating North Pole.......anyway, that's why the North Pole is the "canary in the coal mine"...it all grows on the water, floats and turns on the water, then melts as the sun comes out and the water underneath heats up......shut up Tarkers, you're boring me now!!

[Elite_Pie]

Some scientists have said that the last human being on Earth has already been born.

If it's a Stags fan, at least evolution will have come full circle.

[tarquinbeech]

Daily sea ice visuals (updated daily at approx 5am GMT)...CLICK TO ENLARGE
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/

Daily Earth temps, sea temps and pretty much everything to do with wind, storms, sea level pressure etc etc....great tool
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

[bridpie78]

If it's a Stags fan, at least evolution will have come full circle.

go easyEP they've had a tough week

[ncfcog]

Daily sea ice visuals (updated daily at approx 5am GMT)...CLICK TO ENLARGE
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/

Daily Earth temps, sea temps and pretty much everything to do with wind, storms, sea level pressure etc etc....great tool
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

The Daily Earth temps is a great visual.

[calmpie]

All good, informative stuff Mr Tarquin. What I was hoping to get out of today is a practical, pragmatic and achievable path to global survival.

But its these 'reparations' that the Climate Strike protesters are demanding that irritates me more than anything:-

"We need to act right now to stop burning fossil fuels and ensure a rapid energy revolution with equity, reparations and climate justice at its heart." https://globalclimatestrike.net/

[tarquinbeech]

.....and just to explain why most of the losses are coming from the North, rather than the Southern ice.

The northern arctic is a complete floating ice sheet, anchored partly to Greenland in the deep winter months of Dec, Jan and Feb.
Once we hit the March solstice it begins to melt, detach itself and rotate freely on the warmer oceans coming up from Mexico.
Benjamin Franklin was assigned by the British Admiralty to track this flow of water (greater than the combined waters of every river on earth) as it tracked northwards past Florida and the Carolinas, picked up by the 30s and the roaring 40s and flung NE towards Ireland and onto Scandinavia. He did a remarkably decent job of tracking the 3 main currents that split off, cooled and returned southwards in a complete loop....Nature's Engine Cooling System, if you like......parts of the northern branch eventually gets under the Ice Sheet, does a full 360 and returns, at depth towards the south.....in summary, as the water at the equator gets hotter, it travels to the north pole eventually and melts the ice....we have data going back to 1979 to prove the ice is disappearing, fast, as the oceans warm up.

The South Pole is a completely different model however....it is gigantic ice sheet, over 1 mile thick sat on an island of solid rock. It is so vast, and so cold, that it creates it's own weather patterns and parts of the interior are the driest places on earth ie it is too cold to even rain.
The warming oceans cannot penetrate the land mass (though there is serious evidence now that it is under-mining the vast glaciers, particularly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet across from Patagonia....huge 50 mile blocks are breaking off every 5 or 6 years) but it does wipe out 90% of the sea ice every summer.
Quite simply, the central "1 mile thick ice block on a rock base" gives it a great start every winter, it grows sea ice outwards to between 18 and 20 million sq kms, and at or around the September solstice this starts to melt as the sun finally peeks over the horizon for the first time in 6 months, then it almost all melts down every year to approx 2 million of "hardy" ice hiding in the nooks and crannies of the more rugged coastline.....it's actually quite a boring "ice season" to watch compared to the more fluid and dynamic floating North Pole.......anyway, that's why the North Pole is the "canary in the coal mine"...it all grows on the water, floats and turns on the water, then melts as the sun comes out and the water underneath heats up......shut up Tarkers, you're boring me now!!

Edit - Just noticed, upon re-reading the above, that I refer to the Sun passing the equator twice on or around the 21st March (to start the melt of northern ice) and the return journey, 21st Sept (tomorrow, to melt the southern ice) as solstices........this term is factually incorrect as these dates are called the Vernal Equinoxes....my apologies, I've spent so much time studying Ecuador these last few weeks that any sun directly overhead ie tomorrow there, I think of as a solstice.

ps I had my picture taken last week stood on the Tropic of Cancer....it's only about 15 miles south of me here but I rarely get a chance as I normally use public transport heading south.
There is a small monument on the side of the motorway, built so as to watch the sun rise directly through a slit in the middle and rise towards it's peak on the 21st or 22nd June.....pretty cool IMO.