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Thread: 2019 General Election,

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Zone View Post
    Just so we're all clear right from the very start, Rees Mogg is an absolute kn0b, but let's not kid ourselves that it's only the Tory party that has them (Keith Vaz, Natalie McGarry, Chris Hughne to name just a few). Personally for me it's a pox on all of their houses as far as the main parties are concerned but given I believe in voting it's a case of deciding the lesser of all evils.

    I voted remain and I voted no so given I live in a Tory/SNP seat I'm f'cked either way. So would I rather have Brexit or Indepencence then on balance I would rather stop independence than stop Brexit. That doesn't make me right or wrong, it's just my judgement as to what is best, but equally others, like stewarty27 will have their own judgement that Independence is best, I think they are wrong but doesn't mean they can't have a different opinion. So that all said I am forced to vote Tory based on where I live (if I lived two miles away I would be voting Labour for the same reason). Does that make me a f*cking tosser? No it doesn't, just another victim of our voting system in the same way my neighbour might be forced to vote SNP to stop the Tories winning even though they may want to vote Labour or LibDem

    For what it's worth my guess is that even if my vote counts and the Tories win my seat, they won't win a majority (because millions of people will be like me and vote to stop a party winning rather than vote for who they actually want to vote for) and therefore Brexit won't happen. Here's hoping anyway
    You’re overthinking it. Just go into the polling station & don’t be a c*ck while you’re in there

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mason89 View Post
    You’re overthinking it. Just go into the polling station & don’t be a c*ck while you’re in there
    I'm confident I won't be

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Zone View Post
    Just so we're all clear right from the very start, Rees Mogg is an absolute kn0b, but let's not kid ourselves that it's only the Tory party that has them (Keith Vaz, Natalie McGarry, Chris Hughne to name just a few). Personally for me it's a pox on all of their houses as far as the main parties are concerned but given I believe in voting it's a case of deciding the lesser of all evils.

    I voted remain and I voted no so given I live in a Tory/SNP seat I'm f'cked either way. So would I rather have Brexit or Indepencence then on balance I would rather stop independence than stop Brexit. That doesn't make me right or wrong, it's just my judgement as to what is best, but equally others, like stewarty27 will have their own judgement that Independence is best, I think they are wrong but doesn't mean they can't have a different opinion. So that all said I am forced to vote Tory based on where I live (if I lived two miles away I would be voting Labour for the same reason). Does that make me a f*cking tosser? No it doesn't, just another victim of our voting system in the same way my neighbour might be forced to vote SNP to stop the Tories winning even though they may want to vote Labour or LibDem

    For what it's worth my guess is that even if my vote counts and the Tories win my seat, they won't win a majority (because millions of people will be like me and vote to stop a party winning rather than vote for who they actually want to vote for) and therefore Brexit won't happen. Here's hoping anyway
    Red Zone I wouldn't say Independence is best per say. I'd say Independence is normal. My total motivation for wanting Independence is to build and live in a fairer more equal prosperous and greener Country, Don't get me wrong I'm not claiming that Scotland is perfect, with no problems of intolerance or prejudice but I firmly believe our values are different from our Neighbours south of the border certainly in a political direction and that gap is growing daily. As for the economic Argument anyone with half a brain could scratch the surface and see its very very positive. I suppose the question you and others must ask themselves how much are you willing to see your country ignored and disrespected and asset stripped.

  4. #14
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    I'm in agreement with Stewarty27 that we need to become untethered from our neighbours shackles and go it alone.

    The Brexit result confirmed that this unbalanced Union had reached breaking point. We've been led far too long my a small clique in the south-east of England.

    Besides, Boris Johnson and his disciples are insane. He will get his mandate from the people in December and Scots will just have to lump it unless we vote en masse for the SNP and force an IndyRef 2...

  5. #15
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    Its probably been mentioned somewhere else but I see ex Don Derek Stillie is standing as a Tory Candidate somewhere.

    Gadz.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by stewarty27 View Post
    Red Zone I wouldn't say Independence is best per say. I'd say Independence is normal. My total motivation for wanting Independence is to build and live in a fairer more equal prosperous and greener Country, Don't get me wrong I'm not claiming that Scotland is perfect, with no problems of intolerance or prejudice but I firmly believe our values are different from our Neighbours south of the border certainly in a political direction and that gap is growing daily. As for the economic Argument anyone with half a brain could scratch the surface and see its very very positive. I suppose the question you and others must ask themselves how much are you willing to see your country ignored and disrespected and asset stripped.
    I presume by asset stripped you are referring to oil and gas. There is no doubt that over the last 40 years or so the UK has hugely benefited from tax revenues related to oil and gas that if Scotland had been independent would have transformed us as a country much in the same way as Norway. However whether we like it or not, we are where we are, and any future decision should be based on what will happen in the future rather than any past injustices. With regard to oil and gas that most likely means very little by way of net taxes to Scotland going forward once decommissioning costs are taken account of so I don't think there is much asset stripping still to happen sadly.

    As for being ignored and disrespected I have a healthy disregard for all politicians and it doesn't really make much difference to me as an Aberdonian whether I am ignored/disrespected by Westminster politicians who favour South East England or Hollyrood politicians who favour the central belt and Dundee.

    I have a financial background so hopefully I have a little bit more than half a brain (many may dispute that of course) but I really don't recognise your "very very positive" description for a future independent Scotland when compared with our current financial position as even Brain Wilson acknowledged in his report. That's not to say we would be a basket case as many argue as we wouldn't. I suspect it would be much of a muchness for us "normal" people. The big economic unknown for me is what happens with regard to Brexit and more specifically if the rump of the UK was outside the EU and we applied to join and presumably were accepted what is the economic implication for 60% of our exports that go to the rump of the UK? I also worry about the cost and time it would take to set up from scratch the 101 systems/departments that are currently run by the UK, based on the shambles the Scottish Government is making of taking on just one benefit from the UK (disability).

    Where I do completely agree with you is that as far as social justice is concerned we are a different people from the English (but maybe not the Welsh and Norther Irish?)

    As with most things in life there are pluses and minuses I just think there is more to be lost from all of the disruption, uncertainty and rancour another independence referendum would cause versus a very questionable upside for the people from the North East of Scotland (I realise that not everybody on this forum is from hereabouts so may be less concerned about NE Scotland).

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Zone View Post
    I presume by asset stripped you are referring to oil and gas. There is no doubt that over the last 40 years or so the UK has hugely benefited from tax revenues related to oil and gas that if Scotland had been independent would have transformed us as a country much in the same way as Norway. However whether we like it or not, we are where we are, and any future decision should be based on what will happen in the future rather than any past injustices. With regard to oil and gas that most likely means very little by way of net taxes to Scotland going forward once decommissioning costs are taken account of so I don't think there is much asset stripping still to happen sadly.

    As for being ignored and disrespected I have a healthy disregard for all politicians and it doesn't really make much difference to me as an Aberdonian whether I am ignored/disrespected by Westminster politicians who favour South East England or Hollyrood politicians who favour the central belt and Dundee.

    I have a financial background so hopefully I have a little bit more than half a brain (many may dispute that of course) but I really don't recognise your "very very positive" description for a future independent Scotland when compared with our current financial position as even Brain Wilson acknowledged in his report. That's not to say we would be a basket case as many argue as we wouldn't. I suspect it would be much of a muchness for us "normal" people. The big economic unknown for me is what happens with regard to Brexit and more specifically if the rump of the UK was outside the EU and we applied to join and presumably were accepted what is the economic implication for 60% of our exports that go to the rump of the UK? I also worry about the cost and time it would take to set up from scratch the 101 systems/departments that are currently run by the UK, based on the shambles the Scottish Government is making of taking on just one benefit from the UK (disability).

    Where I do completely agree with you is that as far as social justice is concerned we are a different people from the English (but maybe not the Welsh and Norther Irish?)

    As with most things in life there are pluses and minuses I just think there is more to be lost from all of the disruption, uncertainty and rancour another independence referendum would cause versus a very questionable upside for the people from the North East of Scotland (I realise that not everybody on this forum is from hereabouts so may be less concerned about NE Scotland).
    Thanks Red zone for your comprehensive reply, Oil & gas are only part of the asset stripping which I'll get back to. Its generally accepted there is 40-50 years of O&G left in Scotland's waters. The the Oil and Gas Authority predict that 11.9 billion barrels of oil will be extracted by 2050 that's a hellava resource that could be used to build Scotland's infrastructure, Jobs and build up renewable energy as O&G recedes. You really also have to ask what has WM done with this huge resource ? Other asset stripping is what Scotland Contributes to WM and what it gets back . With you being in finance it should be simple to work out Scotland surplus. The nonsense Unionist throw at Scotland is "We subsidise you Jocko's" is a lie This view is based on the discrepancy between levels of public spending per head of the population in Scotland and England. According to the Treasury's latest Public Expenditure Statistics, Scots gets an average of £10,212 spent on them every year by the UK government, compared with around £8,588 -- £1,624 less -- for people in England. We Scots represent 8.4 per cent of the UK's total population, but they generate 9.4 per cent of its annual revenues in tax -- equivalent to £1,000 extra per person. The remaining £624 is easily accounted for by decades of UK government under-spending in Scotland on defence and on other items which are not routinely broken down by region, such as foreign office services Wars tax cuts for the elites and English vanity projects such as Cross rail etc. Setting up an Independence Scotland would not be as difficult as you say a lot of the main institutions are already there and being run by the Scottish Government ..Education NHS etc you have to remember also Scotland will be entitled to its fair share of UK assets. We are Big enough Strong enough and Clever enough to run our own country and wait for it ...do a much better job than WM who currently run most of our important business.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by stewarty27 View Post
    Thanks Red zone for your comprehensive reply, Oil & gas are only part of the asset stripping which I'll get back to. Its generally accepted there is 40-50 years of O&G left in Scotland's waters. The the Oil and Gas Authority predict that 11.9 billion barrels of oil will be extracted by 2050 that's a hellava resource that could be used to build Scotland's infrastructure, Jobs and build up renewable energy as O&G recedes. You really also have to ask what has WM done with this huge resource ? Other asset stripping is what Scotland Contributes to WM and what it gets back . With you being in finance it should be simple to work out Scotland surplus. The nonsense Unionist throw at Scotland is "We subsidise you Jocko's" is a lie This view is based on the discrepancy between levels of public spending per head of the population in Scotland and England. According to the Treasury's latest Public Expenditure Statistics, Scots gets an average of £10,212 spent on them every year by the UK government, compared with around £8,588 -- £1,624 less -- for people in England. We Scots represent 8.4 per cent of the UK's total population, but they generate 9.4 per cent of its annual revenues in tax -- equivalent to £1,000 extra per person. The remaining £624 is easily accounted for by decades of UK government under-spending in Scotland on defence and on other items which are not routinely broken down by region, such as foreign office services Wars tax cuts for the elites and English vanity projects such as Cross rail etc. Setting up an Independence Scotland would not be as difficult as you say a lot of the main institutions are already there and being run by the Scottish Government ..Education NHS etc you have to remember also Scotland will be entitled to its fair share of UK assets. We are Big enough Strong enough and Clever enough to run our own country and wait for it ...do a much better job than WM who currently run most of our important business.
    Thanks in turn stewarty27 for your response. Just a few more thoughts from me so apologies in advance for what will no doubt be a lengthy reply.

    As long as the green lobby don't get their way then yes I agree there should be plenty of oil produced over next 30 years. The issue is how much of that will convert to Government taxes. Most oil tax income these days comes from tax on profit rather than tax on production so if oil prices stay at the current $60 or so then there won't be a significant tax take (like we saw back in the 80's/90's) partly because production is less than half what it used to be and partly due to the relatively high cost base not to mention decommissioning costs. Government tax income will only be significantly greater if oil prices go back up to the $80-$100 range (who knows how likely that is) or if the basis of tax revenues changes back towards production rather than profit (but then would we kill the golden goose?)

    The answer as to what WM has done with past oil tax revenues is p1ssed it away on tax cuts instead of investing it like Norway has done

    Your assertion that Scotland has a surplus of tax receipts over public spending doesn't seem real based on everything I have read. Based on the recent GERS figures the figure you quote on extra public spending is very consistent. That's no real surprise given the land mass we occupy for the population we have compared with England. Diseconomies of scale means that it will always cost us more to provide things like health, education and transport given the rural nature of much of our country

    As for tax income, I don't know what to believe, and that's me with a good financial background. You mention figures that shows Scotland having more tax income yet GERS shows Scotland having £300 per head less income than the rest of the UK. The reality is that it is all based on estimates and guesswork given things like how do you allocate corporation tax for UK wide businesses, what about people who live in England but work in Scotland (very relevant for the oil and gas industry) etc etc etc?

    The real question of course is not what todays income versus spend is but rather what would it look like if Scotland were independent. Clearly we would spend less on things like defence (even though technically we shouldn't as we have a NATO 2.5% target spend to meet - but everyone else pretty much doesn't hit this target so presumably Scotland wouldn't either) and crazy projects like H2S but would likely spend more in the future on things like health and benefits. As for tax there are just too many unknown variables at the moment to say with any certainty how our tax income would compare with our spend, the main one being the outcome of Brexit (this impacts on so many things like the size of the economy, future immigration policy etc).

    I think you are badly underestimating the time and cost of setting up systems from scratch as we would have to do in many areas like tax (other than income tax), benefits, defense, foreign affairs etc. Look at the time it took, not to mention the £180 Million to set up a single system to pay our farmers. I mentioned previously the several years delay the Scottish Government has opted for on taking responsibility for the payment of disability benefits as they don't have the system set up yet. Presumably we could have some sort of transition period to continue to use UK systems where needed until we had our own set up. That's not to say we should avoid independence just because of the cost of setting everything up, but transparency is needed to make an informed decision (not nonsensical estimates like produced recently by the SNP saying it would only cost £90 million per year for 5 years).

    You are quite right to say we would be entitled to our fair share of UK assets. If we ever get as far as independence negotiations with the UK then that along with the national debt will be a fascinating negotiating point. I have no idea whatsoever if the net of that leaves us with net assets or net debt, but clearly would have major implications on future budgets (whether we have an interest payment on net debt or not).

    I have no doubt whatsoever that we have enough smart people to run our country and would be financially strong enough to be an independent country but that's not really the question. (Let's not get too precious on our ability to run things better as we also have our fair share of Government f'ck up's - Edinburgh and Glasgow hospitals?). The real question is what would that look like both financially and politically in an independent country. As we have both said, in political terms we would be in a better place as we would move to a more socially just country than where England is headed albeit I reiterate my concern that we in NE Scotland would forever be an afterthought in the same way as Scotland is an afterthought to WM.

    My biggest concern though is on the uncertainty on the financial side and is the single reason I am so against another independence referendum next year. I am sure you would agree that our financial status would be severely impacted depending on the outcome of Brexit. At this time we simply don't know how that sh1tfest will end up. If Labour had a remotely electable leader then they would comfortably win the general election. They don't so they won't. So that leaves two scenarios - a Tory majority or a hung parliament (for what it's worth I can't see enough labour constituencies switching to Tory to offset the losses the Tories will suffer in Scotland, London and South of England given they are already about 20 short of a majority so I would be pretty sure it will be another hung parliament).

    If I'm wrong and it's a Tory majority then clearly Brexit will commence early next year. At that point we are in the transition period but heading out of the EU. Who knows when that would actually happen as whilst the transition period is due to end at the end of 2020 trade discussions will take much longer than expected so either we crash out without a deal or transition is extended. At best it will be 2021 but more likely 2022 until we have the slightest idea of the impact of brexit on the Scottish economy.

    If it's a hung parliament then regardless of who ends up in Downing Street I think the only way Brexit gets resolved is via another referendum and that is a year away and who knows what the outcome of that would be and therefore the impact on the Scottish economy as at that point Brexit may not even happen.

    I just think to layer on top of this sh1tfest the uncertainty of a Scottish independence referendum next year (not to mention the grief the arguments will cause) when it would be actually impossible for either side to say with any certainty whatsoever what a future Scotland would look like (or even if we are in the EU or not) is just complete madness. For me I think we should let the dust settle and see whether Brexit happens, see who our next WM government is ( I wouldn't rule out a second GE in 2020 where Labour under a more moderate leader would win) and therefore what Scotland looks like at that time. A scenario of Brexit/Johnson majority would look and feel very different in Scotland with a scenario of no Brexit/Labour moderate Government

    Apologies for the lengthy response and most likely boring most people to death!!

  9. #19
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    Lengthy indeed .where to start. I suppose the deception of the GERs figures would be a good start To suggest that Scotland, Wales and NI are responsible for more or less 100% of the deficit with under 20% of the entire population is fantasy. Just to quickly summarise we here is Scotland are face with what is a basic binary choice. Take our own future into our hands or the status quo which has worked so very well for us.... Actually its not even the status quo its far worse. Scotland is at a crossroad I say its time to be brave and grasp our future.

  10. #20
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    Farage only contesting labour held seats. Wonder what he’s been promised...

    This union is tinpot. If you vote for it, you’re a f*cking imbecile

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