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Thread: O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoePass View Post
    Suck it up loser.
    I'm lucky enough to be in a position to suck it up without problem. It's those who aren't so lucky that I feel sorry for.

  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Don_ORiordan View Post

    An average middle left leader would have labour in power.
    Agree with that. Will be interesting to see where Labour goes now. Back to being New Labour or McDonnell to keep the faith with the Corbyn project. I'd be interested to hear what traditional Labour voters who were repelled by Corbyn think.

    Will also be interesting to see how Boris governs now. He traditionally has not been a very right wing politician, with such a large majority he doesn't need to keep Rees Mogg and the DUP happy. Will he go back to being a centrist?

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elite_Pie View Post
    The only positive to come from this is that Corbyn has to resign tomorrow.

    Labour will then have a golden opportunity to rebuild if lessons have been learned.

    This^^^

    Double bonus for me. Get Brexit done, get rid of Corbyn, but will this free the Labour Party from the grip of the unions and the hard left? I really hope it does but I doubt it somehow.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by countygump View Post
    This^^^

    Double bonus for me. Get Brexit done, get rid of Corbyn, but will this free the Labour Party from the grip of the unions and the hard left? I really hope it does but I doubt it somehow.
    But who will be the new leader. I think it needs to be somebody with as little connection to Corbyn as possible.

  5. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elite_Pie View Post
    I'm lucky enough to be in a position to suck it up without problem. It's those who aren't so lucky that I feel sorry for.


    You mean Diane Abbott and McDonnell.

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by countygump View Post
    This^^^

    Double bonus for me. Get Brexit done, get rid of Corbyn, but will this free the Labour Party from the grip of the unions and the hard left? I really hope it does but I doubt it somehow.
    Gump would you vote for McDonnell with the present shadow cabinet?

    If not would you vote for him with a more middle of the road (and more competent) shadow cabinet?

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoePass View Post
    You mean Diane Abbott and McDonnell.
    No, I think they will be able to suck it up even easier than me.

    The people I feel sorry for are the ones on or close to the breadline who fell for the Tory lies. I suppose I could take your attitude and say they deserve all they get, but I hope I'm a bit better than that.

  8. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    Gump would you vote for McDonnell with the present shadow cabinet?

    If not would you vote for him with a more middle of the road (and more competent) shadow cabinet?
    No and No.

  9. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by countygump View Post
    No and No.
    Would you vote for a centre left Tony Blair type character?

  10. #210
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elite_Pie View Post
    No, I think they will be able to suck it up even easier than me.

    The people I feel sorry for are the ones on or close to the breadline who fell for the Tory lies. I suppose I could take your attitude and say they deserve all they get, but I hope I'm a bit better than that.
    It is not worth replying to such childish remarks EP.
    By the way Asdaa as been entered in a race at Newcastle 6-15 on 18th December.

  11. #211
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    Feb 2010
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    3,228
    With results from 649 of 650 seats available here is the predicted seats graph but now including actual results in the last column. The final seat result we are waiting for is St Ives in Cornwall which was a Tory seat previously.

    One thing that stands out with the polls is that they were quite accurate with no more than 0.5% difference between the last set of polls analysed and the actual result where the main parties are concerned. Equally, although the results didn't quite match the exit polls it was still very close.

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    The whole point of the thread originally was for people to have a guess at how they thought the result would pan out. It developed into something a little different and if nothing else has proved that the polls in general, together with expert scientific calculations can now be considered as a reasonably accurate way of predicting elections.

    The one downside of this is the fact it was without doubt a Brexit election. Hopefully next time we can have an election based on party policies rather than something that completely divided the country. This would then potentially create a closer and more interesting analysis.

    For those wondering how a second referendum may have panned out I'm afraid it is impossible to tell. You could argue that the collective votes for the Tories, Brexit and UKIP represent a leave majority and the votes for Labour, SNP and Lib Dems represent a remain majority in which case:

    LEAVE:
    Con - 13,941,086
    BRX - 642,323
    UKIP - 22,817
    Total = 14,606,226

    Remain:
    Lab - 10,292,354

    SNP - 1,242,380
    LD - 3,675,342
    Total = 15,210.076

    Again, it's really close and doesn't actually represent the voting intention of individuals as there will be many leavers still voted Labour and vice versa within the Tory ranks of remain supporters.
    Thanks to those that have contributed and found the thread interesting.
    Last edited by ncfcog; 13-12-2019 at 08:49 AM. Reason: formatting

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