O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

[queenslandpie]

Understandable. I've never shown any interest in the Australian elections.

And neither should you as our political situation is also fairly desperate with lethargic leadership and consensus politics prevailing. We also have almost zero influence on the world stage other than in cricket and rugby league and sometimes swimming. However I am still a British citizen and have a vote. I just can't abide any of the available parties to vote for, for the usual myriad of reasons and as such I think I will spoil or maybe even soil my ballot paper. I am genuinley dumfounded about the country I left and the political state it is in. It does vindicate my abscence though and I doubt I am missed I was a pretty ordinary resident.

[Old_pie]

I am genuinley dumfounded about the country I left and the political state it is in. It does vindicate my abscence though and I doubt I am missed I was a pretty ordinary resident.

I seem to remember being similarly disaffected when I arrived in Australia in the early 70s. UK with its strikes and the laughing stock of Europe and financial bail-outs. The Whitlam saga and over-egotistical State Premiers of which Queensland's was amongst the worst. And of course voting was compulsory. I guess politicians are mainly just sh1t.

[navypie]

I'd be interested to hear the answer to that, because after a great deal of thought I can only think of one plus point for Boris Johnson.

He isn't Michael Gove.

Or Jezza Cor-bin In other news, Tom Watson stands down for personal not political reasons.Yeah, and I'm a Forest fan.

[ncfcog]

So it wouldn't be like me to start a thread without some graphs so here's a simple one for starters.

Latest YouGov voting intention poll from 4th November.

*Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, the margins of error for their support across GB is likely to be less than +/- 1% so I have not included them in the figures at this time. Happy to stick them in there if anyone would prefer it.



Hopefully this will keep OldPie happy

[ncfcog]

Just to be clear YouGov will not be my only source of info, I will as time goes by post results from a variety of polls and look to try and determine averages as well as constituant voting intentions as and when data becomes available.

[i961pie]

Or Jezza Cor-bin In other news, Tom Watson stands down for personal not political reasons.Yeah, and I'm a Forest fan.

On the first day of the campaign the Tories looked like they were commiting political suicide with the Rees Mogg and Cleverly grenfell comments and then the Welsh guy having to resign for lying, and then being accused of doctoring a Kier Starmer interview.
Then today the deputy leader and moderate voice of the Labour party Tom Watson says he isn't standing, a former Labour politician and member of 35 years Ian Austin is saying Corbyn is not fit to be prime minister and to vote for Boris. Then another one who's been suspended for anti semetic comments is going to stand as a independent against labour. And also the woman selected by the local party members
in Bassetlaw to represent them has been told by the chief executive she won't the allowed to.
Then the lib dems have been accused of lying on their pamphlets, you couldn't make it up.
Harold Wilson once said a week is a long time in politics it seems like a day is now.

[Old_pie]

So it wouldn't be like me to start a thread without some graphs so here's a simple one for starters.

Latest YouGov voting intention poll from 4th November.

*Because the SNP and Plaid Cymru only campaign in Scotland and Wales respectively, the margins of error for their support across GB is likely to be less than +/- 1% so I have not included them in the figures at this time. Happy to stick them in there if anyone would prefer it.



Hopefully this will keep OldPie happy

Well it's a start but a bit basic. It could be done as per your league table, by date so that change can be monitored over the weeks, a finishing line target for an outright win; plus the number of floating and not interested voters and then split into Brexit, Scottish Independence etc. Really needs to be multi-dimensional.

On the other hand - I'd get on with the Christmas shopping if I were you.

[Lullapie]

Tory majority or a hung parliament.
Yep they should all be hung

Surely you mean hanged.

[ncfcog]

Well it's a start but a bit basic. It could be done as per your league table, by date so that change can be monitored over the weeks, a finishing line target for an outright win; plus the number of floating and not interested voters and then split into Brexit, Scottish Independence etc. Really needs to be multi-dimensional.

On the other hand - I'd get on with the Christmas shopping if I were you.

Yes that was very basic but was just starting to play with it. Gathering the data for all of the facets you mention will be the biggest challenge but agree a timeline graph would be a good indicator with targets. I am currently analysing polls from before the last two elections to see how that transferred to actual votes to see if I can come up with a prediction formula.

Just got to ensure it doesn't interfere with my day job!

[TSANHO]

The Labour party will win this election with help from the SNP in return for another Scottish independence referendum.

What're odds on that one?