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Thread: O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elite_Pie View Post
    I'm saying that just like the last few decades, the Tories and Labour will get most seats. LibDems will get a few, the Greens and Brexit party will be lucky to get one seat each, so I don't know who your fourth party are. Some were saying that the events of the last couple of years would see a massive shift in the political landscape, but those polls just suggest more of the same.
    Could the fourth party be the SNP? Their 30/40 odd seats could make all the difference in a hung parliament.

  2. #42
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    Some interesting forecasts here from the Electoral Calculus who appear to be widely thought of as one of the top election prediction sites on the internet.

    Turnout is expected to be bigger than two years ago which in itself was the biggest turnout since 1997.

    Name:  ge19prediction1.JPG
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Size:  65.4 KB

  3. #43
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    To add to last post it will be interesting to see how this changes once campaigning has got into full swing. I will try and update as it happens but will be an opportunity to measure how much difference for example a live TV debate can have etc.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lullapie View Post
    I find Johnson's and the Tories' tactics very odd with isolating The Brexit Party. It is a very high-risk strategy that could see them lose power if the centreright/right vote is split, rather than forming a pre-election alliance.
    I think Farage made any alliance with the Tories very unlikely when he described the deal brokered by Boris as "a bad one and not really Brexit". If they had managed to come to some sort of tactical agreement on who stands where I think a Tory majority would be a formality. If (as Farage claims) the Brexit party contest 600+ seats, although their likely 10% of the vote won't win any seats they could pinch enough Tory votes to allow one of the other parties to sneak in, leading to a hung parliament.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Some interesting forecasts here from the Electoral Calculus who appear to be widely thought of as one of the top election prediction sites on the internet.

    Turnout is expected to be bigger than two years ago which in itself was the biggest turnout since 1997.

    Name:  ge19prediction1.JPG
Views: 280
Size:  65.4 KB
    I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lullapie View Post
    I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.
    What a great idea, let's all show that there is absolutely no opposition at all to ruining the planet. I presume your warped logic would also apply equally to voting for the Brexit party or UKIP, because they are projected to get less seats than the Green party.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lullapie View Post
    I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.
    Of course you're right. Voting for a principle died a long time ago.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lullapie View Post
    I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.
    I can't think of any better way to 'take back control' than making sure everyone's vote counts ie proportional representation.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    I can't think of any better way to 'take back control' than making sure everyone's vote counts ie proportional representation.
    Can someone remind me why you need to have a government again?

    All I can see is so called grown-ups falling over themselves to hand their political agency to someone else to wield for them. In most cases to people clearly not to be trusted, but you'll do it anyway.

    Isn't it time you all grew up and stopped asking for Mummy and Daddy to do it for you and instead got up of your knees and took control of your own lives?

    It's pathetic really. You deserve the crap coming to you...

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lullapie View Post
    I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation, but looking at the latest poll, it just further reinstalls my view that what is the point of voting for The Greens. The kind of person who votes Green, without proportional representation must have had their brains removed. A total wasted vote.
    The planet is dying, species going extinct, rain forests destroyed, the earth torn and raped, rivers and lakes polluted, the oceans used as a trash can and you say voting green is a waste.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by maddogslater View Post
    The planet is dying, species going extinct, rain forests destroyed, the earth torn and raped, rivers and lakes polluted, the oceans used as a trash can and you say voting green is a waste.
    Well it is, unless you live in Brighton, perhaps. Extinction Rebellion and the anti-fracking activists etc have done more and are likely to do more than a lame vote for the Green Party.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by sevens_a_secret View Post
    Can someone remind me why you need to have a government again?

    All I can see is so called grown-ups falling over themselves to hand their political agency to someone else to wield for them. In most cases to people clearly not to be trusted, but you'll do it anyway.

    Isn't it time you all grew up and stopped asking for Mummy and Daddy to do it for you and instead got up of your knees and took control of your own lives?

    It's pathetic really. You deserve the crap coming to you...
    Umm, who is the 'you' whom you are addressing here and how come you yourself are not included?

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lullapie View Post
    I am vehemently against any form of proportional representation.
    That means you're strongly behind disproportional representation.
    Not a position that can be taken very seriously

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by sidders View Post
    Umm, who is the 'you' whom you are addressing here and how come you yourself are not included?
    Well, this turkey won't be voting for Christmas. I advocate an Anarchist Communist revolution instead.

    Ya Basta!

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_anticlough View Post
    That means you're strongly behind disproportional representation.
    Not a position that can be taken very seriously
    I prefer the first past the post system as it makes it less likely to have a hung parliament / coalition government which I am not keen on.

    I understand it is probably not the best system but in my opinion usually gives a better outcome.

    The last referendum we had on our voting system in 2011 rejected the LibDems Single Transferable Vote where 68% voted (with a low turnout) not to change from the current system.
    Although not Proportional Representation it was a step in that direction that didnít appear to interest the electorate.

    However it wasnít referred to as ďa once in a generation referendumĒ so maybe we could have another vote.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by forwardmagpie View Post
    I prefer the first past the post system as it makes it less likely to have a hung parliament / coalition government which I am not keen on.

    I understand it is probably not the best system but in my opinion usually gives a better outcome.
    In the UK, we've seen that even 36% of the vote on about 66% turnout can win a party absolute power for half a decade or much longer. That's 23% of the population having it all their way.

    If that 23% was delivering policies and outcomes you hated, the absolute opposite of what you believe, would you still be saying 'well it's better than a hung parliament' or parties having to work with each other? No, I think you'd quickly become a supporter of proportional representation.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_anticlough View Post
    In the UK, we've seen that even 36% of the vote on about 66% turnout can win a party absolute power for half a decade or much longer. That's 23% of the population having it all their way.

    If that 23% was delivering policies and outcomes you hated, the absolute opposite of what you believe, would you still be saying 'well it's better than a hung parliament' or parties having to work with each other? No, I think you'd quickly become a supporter of proportional representation.
    No I wouldnít, I didnít support Mr Blair (not sure what %s he got) for more than a decade but I just got on with it as I think itís the best option so please donít presume I think like you.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by forwardmagpie View Post
    No I wouldn’t, I didn’t support Mr Blair (not sure what %s he got) for more than a decade but I just got on with it as I think it’s the best option so please don’t presume I think like you.
    I wasn't thinking of Blair. The last Euros with the tories on 8%, raised the possibility of a Corbyn Govt with a large working majority even on low to mid 30s %. It's good to know you would 'just get on' with that FPTP scenario too.
    At the moment, there's more possibility of a large Johnson majority on a really low share of popular vote.
    I don't think there's anyway you can deny that FPTP is anti-democratic, whatever your political persuasion.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_anticlough View Post
    I wasn't thinking of Blair. The last Euros with the tories on 8%, raised the possibility of a Corbyn Govt with a large working majority even on low to mid 30s %. It's good to know you would 'just get on' with that FPTP scenario too.
    At the moment, there's more possibility of a large Johnson majority on a really low share of popular vote.
    I don't think there's anyway you can deny that FPTP is anti-democratic, whatever your political persuasion.
    Why did you not think of Mr Blair and Mr Brown when you raised this point?

    FPTP for me is a better system and I have explained why - if Mr Corbyn wins on FPTP then so be it. If he does well then he will win the next election if he doesnít he wonít.

    You seem to have ignored the Single Transferable Vote referendum- why?

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by forwardmagpie View Post
    Why did you not think of Mr Blair and Mr Brown when you raised this point?

    FPTP for me is a better system and I have explained why - if Mr Corbyn wins on FPTP then so be it. If he does well then he will win the next election if he doesnít he wonít.

    You seem to have ignored the Single Transferable Vote referendum- why?

    FPTP has always imposed Govts that a large majority of the population do not want.
    It forces our politics into a dysfunctional 2-party system which just doesn't serve a complex, modern society with so many competing ideologies and outlooks.

    The referendum was on Alternative Vote (AV) not STV. Let's not sugarcoat it, the tories ate the Lib dems alive in Govt. Most people can't even remember that referendum, it got so little attention. Clegg was so brow-beaten, he even seemed apologetic for having it so lame was the campaign.

    Anyway, the point I'm making is FPTP is essentially an anti-democratic system. Anyone supporting it backs political representation (and actual power) being disproportional to actual votes. I just don't think that's defensible

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