O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

[ncfcog]

With results from 649 of 650 seats available here is the predicted seats graph but now including actual results in the last column. The final seat result we are waiting for is St Ives in Cornwall which was a Tory seat previously.

One thing that stands out with the polls is that they were quite accurate with no more than 0.5% difference between the last set of polls analysed and the actual result where the main parties are concerned. Equally, although the results didn't quite match the exit polls it was still very close.



The whole point of the thread originally was for people to have a guess at how they thought the result would pan out. It developed into something a little different and if nothing else has proved that the polls in general, together with expert scientific calculations can now be considered as a reasonably accurate way of predicting elections.

The one downside of this is the fact it was without doubt a Brexit election. Hopefully next time we can have an election based on party policies rather than something that completely divided the country. This would then potentially create a closer and more interesting analysis.

For those wondering how a second referendum may have panned out I'm afraid it is impossible to tell. You could argue that the collective votes for the Tories, Brexit and UKIP represent a leave majority and the votes for Labour, SNP and Lib Dems represent a remain majority in which case:

LEAVE:
Con - 13,941,086
BRX - 642,323
UKIP - 22,817
Total = 14,606,226

Remain:
Lab - 10,292,354
SNP - 1,242,380
LD - 3,675,342
Total = 15,210.076

Again, it's really close and doesn't actually represent the voting intention of individuals as there will be many leavers still voted Labour and vice versa within the Tory ranks of remain supporters.
Thanks to those that have contributed and found the thread interesting.