O/T:- Votes, scores and first past the post predictions 12.12.2019

[BigFatPie]

A Tory majority is now clear favourite. I took 11/8 about a Tory majority about 3 weeks ago, so could now guarantee a profit by backing a hung parliament because I am convinced they are the only two possible outcomes on December 12th. While you are correct about how poor Boris has been in this campaign, it won't make any difference. He could molest the queen on the steps of Buckingham Palace and 40% of people would still give him their vote because he's "getting Brexit done", and nothing else matters.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...erall-majority

A very depressing but ultimately probably accurate conclusion.

[ncfcog]

Polls from 21st to 26th November. 15,039 people sampled (not including those on Elites excellent poll thread). Slight increases for both Con and Lab, a slight drop for LD. It seems not much will change.

[ncfcog]

Latest poll data would indicate that the gap between the two main parties is reducing whilst LD, BRX and GRN all start to tail off.

Sample of 18,821 people by 9 different pollsters between 28th November and 3rd of December.





Tory majority now down to a predicted 30 sests but could be anything between 28 and 32 seats.

Current probable outcomes as it stands according to Electoral Calculus:



As mentioned previously the outcome of this election is by no means a sure thing. It is likely the probability of a Labour minority will increase over the next few days as election day draws nearer. Boris refusing to do the Andrew Neil and Julie Etchingham interviews coupled with the alleged official document leaked today by Labour regarding the Tories Brexit deal will no doubt have an impact on these predictions as the polls start to level out this week.

[Elite_Pie]

Good graphs ncfcog, but I'm still expecting to wake up in a week's time to the news that Boris Johnson has been elected with a majority.
I know Brexit has been highly divisive, but how did we manage to sink this low? The nation will place it's future in the hands of Johnson and the likes of Gove and Rees-Mogg, three of the most obnoxious pieces of animal excrement in politics.

I remember having a disagreement with Tricky a while ago when he said the failure of parliament to deliver Brexit would cause a huge political sh!tstorm at the next election when voters would desert the main parties in droves, and new parties like his beloved Brexit party will come to the fore. I told him he was talking out of his arse and that two-party politics would continue. The graphs tell us who was right!
The one enjoyable thing about this election campaign has been the total wipeout of UKIP, and support for the Brexit party dropping from 23% in July to less than 5% now. So I think Boris will win, Boris will deliver Brexit, and then the sh!t will start to hit the fan.

[drillerpie]

Tory majority now down to a predicted 30 sests but could be anything between 28 and 32 seats.

Interesting stuff ncfcog, keep up the good work.

Assuming the Conservatives still have around 15/20 pro remain MPs in their ranks, a majority of 28 is not that big (in terms of Brexit legislation at least).

[i961pie]

Interesting stuff ncfcog, keep up the good work.

Assuming the Conservatives still have around 15/20 pro remain MPs in their ranks, a majority of 28 is not that big (in terms of Brexit legislation at least).

Haven't the pro remainers been expelled or left?

[drillerpie]

Haven't the pro remainers been expelled or left?

I think he let most of them back.

[Elite_Pie]

Haven't the pro remainers been expelled or left?

Most of them, and any replacement Tory candidates will have to kiss Johnson's arse in order to gain selection.

Good for winning the election, but bad for the country him being surrounded by a bunch of nodding dogs.

[BigFatPie]

Good graphs ncfcog, but I'm still expecting to wake up in a week's time to the news that Boris Johnson has been elected with a majority.
I know Brexit has been highly divisive, but how did we manage to sink this low? The nation will place it's future in the hands of Johnson and the likes of Gove and Rees-Mogg, three of the most obnoxious pieces of animal excrement in politics.

I remember having a disagreement with Tricky a while ago when he said the failure of parliament to deliver Brexit would cause a huge political sh!tstorm at the next election when voters would desert the main parties in droves, and new parties like his beloved Brexit party will come to the fore. I told him he was talking out of his arse and that two-party politics would continue. The graphs tell us who was right!
The one enjoyable thing about this election campaign has been the total wipeout of UKIP, and support for the Brexit party dropping from 23% in July to less than 5% now. So I think Boris will win, Boris will deliver Brexit, and then the sh!t will start to hit the fan.

Even if it does, it’ll be Remoaners, Labour, Lib Dems, Muslims, gays, poor people’s fault for not ‘believing’ enough.

In relation to the thread there’s a Twitter account called Dr Moderate who’s putting a very persuasive case that the polls are massively underestimating Labour support. Obviously we have no idea whether that’s true or not, but it’s nice to read from a leftist point of view.

[ncfcog]

So with the big day looming and Elites poll coming to end here are the last poll graphs I'm going to post.

Latest data is the largest sample I have used since I started this with 132,087 people polled between 4th and 11th December from 10 different pollsters.





Based on the abve the Conservatives would win with an overall majority of 62. Of course it is not an exact science but if the Tories did fail to get a majority, based on the polls it would be classed as a monumental failure.

I realise this hasn't been interesting for many but I certainly enjoyed doing it and will be interested to see just how close some of these prediction actually were.