Luck

[seventwo]

Almost everything in life is dominated by "process" and "training".

You define a process that does the job exactly and train to achieve that outcome each and every time irrespective of personnel.

It is demonstrated everywhere in life. Mistakes happen when the process is not exactly right and/or training is inadequate.

Liverpool reserves were a prime example of that today as were Burnley and Sheffield Utd when they were promoted.

BRFC have no strategy and it is clear that their training is inadequate. TM insists his players are versatile and that is exactly what they shouldn't be. They should know their position and their responsibilities within the team.
We have very rarely been convincing during TM's tenure. We rarely, if ever, put in a consistent performance for more than 10 or 20 minutes.

[champs95]

Also re young players. Look at the system Liverpool employed today. It was exactly the same as the normal first team. Every player knew exactly what they were doing. What was apparent was the intensity of the young players. Liverpool earn the right to play football, by out-running the opposition. Abd out-tackling. And they keep those intensity levels for the entire 90 mins.
I have been questioning the coaching going on at our club for some time.
Having watched us yesterday, they looked like they lacked intensity. And various players are so evidently lacking confidence. I think the treatment of Brereton is disgusting and I just think he needs to go out on loan He is being completely ruined being around this club. Certain players came with real purpose and form. Bell tore us shreds playing for Fleetwood. Thats why we bought him. And bit by bit his head has completely gone down. I still maintain there is a player in there. He is one of the only ones who can cross a ball. And often when playing is a far better attacking option than anyone else.
I totally agree about our lack of identity. We go on a run, things click into place for a while, then we go into very bad form.
For all the analysing etc I still feel it is pretty simple. We miss Dack massively. We are nothing special without him. Our huge reliance on him is getting more evident every week. We desperately need to find another goalscorer from somewhere. For nowt. Or maybe sell Lenihan to Sheff Utd who will come back on for him and use some of that money.

[Saxo1man41]

Also re young players. Look at the system Liverpool employed today. It was exactly the same as the normal first team. Every player knew exactly what they were doing. What was apparent was the intensity of the young players. Liverpool earn the right to play football, by out-running the opposition. Abd out-tackling. And they keep those intensity levels for the entire 90 mins.
I have been questioning the coaching going on at our club for some time.
Having watched us yesterday, they looked like they lacked intensity. And various players are so evidently lacking confidence. I think the treatment of Brereton is disgusting and I just think he needs to go out on loan He is being completely ruined being around this club. Certain players came with real purpose and form. Bell tore us shreds playing for Fleetwood. Thats why we bought him. And bit by bit his head has completely gone down. I still maintain there is a player in there. He is one of the only ones who can cross a ball. And often when playing is a far better attacking option than anyone else.
I totally agree about our lack of identity. We go on a run, things click into place for a while, then we go into very bad form.
For all the analysing etc I still feel it is pretty simple. We miss Dack massively. We are nothing special without him. Our huge reliance on him is getting more evident every week. We desperately need to find another goalscorer from somewhere. For nowt. Or maybe sell Lenihan to Sheff Utd who will come back on for him and use some of that money.

Now the Xmas schedule has been got through, see how our form goes now. I'm hoping TM gets back to a settled 11, and things pick up again.

[champs95]

No doubt the xmas period and those games in such a short space of time took its toll on us massively. And once things settle down a bit hopefully we can kick on a bit. While Preston will be fired up on Sat, they are there for the taking.
I do think we need to freshen up a bit, get Smallwood and a few others out altogether, Brereton maybe Chapman out on loan and try bring in a goalscorer. Someone to give us a bot of a spark. Armstrong is too inconsistent to be relied on, and right now hes all we have.

[AucklandRover]

The fact remains that on the morning of the Wigan game, everything was sweetness and light.
Here we are, 14 days later, and according to lots of fans, the season is over and we are plummeting towards relegation.
My take on it is to avoid speculation as much as possible, because 28 days from now, I have no idea what the mood will be.
Along with the vast majority of teams in the Championship, we are hugely inconsistent. If that inconsistency is Mowbray's fault, so be it, but wouldn't that mean all the other teams with patchy records have managers who should be sacked as well?
We created enough good chances against Birmingham to have scored four. If any two of them had gone in, would that have made Mowbray a better manager?
I just don't see it. There is so much that goes into the outcome of any sporting contest that trying to pin it down to one factor seems ridiculous to me.
Let's say a bowler hits the middle stump in cricket, but it is subsequently discovered that he has overstepped the crease by half an inch. Then the batsman in question goes on to get 200.
Is that somehow the manager's or the coach's fault?
Of course, if a pattern goes on too long, the manager has to carry the can, and Mowbray is no exception.
My feeling is, however, that our only pattern is "no pattern"!
Going into the Barnsley match, I thought Mowbray was probably in last-chance saloon. We were lucky to win that, but then went on a good run, including two very good performances - and one of those came after six changes were made to the starting line-up!
If we're trying to identify managerial failings, it is not at all clear to me what conclusions can be drawn about TM, because so much of the evidence is contradictory!
That is why I will never subscribe to the widespread doctrine of "It's all down to the manager".

[seventwo]

Yep, just roll the die

[AucklandRover]

Basically, I don't think that is a million miles off!
At the top of the PL, it's a bit different because the cream is all concentrated.
In the Championship, with 20-odd teams all very much of the same standard, I DO think luck plays a major part.
We threw a six with Dack and a one with Brereton!
If only anyone knew for certain in advance!

[champs95]

Basically, I don't think that is a million miles off!
At the top of the PL, it's a bit different because the cream is all concentrated.
In the Championship, with 20-odd teams all very much of the same standard, I DO think luck plays a major part.
We threw a six with Dack and a one with Brereton!
If only anyone knew for certain in advance!

What you are at of risk of doing here is telling people how they think Auks. And I don't agree with that.
On the morning of the Wigan game everything was sweetness and light?
Not sure what relevance that has? We had just come off the back of our best performance vrs Bristol. Which was off the back of 4 wins and 1 draw. Where we meant to go in expecting defeat? To bottom of the table.
The Bristol game was off the back of us playing Sat-Midweek-Sat for a number of weeks, where he made no changes.
We had just played on the Wed night away at Swansea, and spent the week staying at a stunning and expensive hotel, down in Wales. Dack had been sent off, the lads had played 5 in a row (twice a week) and where starting to flag a little at Swansea. So it made sense to change things around. Made even easier as he had lost Dack. Which meant a slight change of system. It felt and looked like there was a reason.
Then we went into the Wigan game, and made another 6 changes. Which I felt slowed us down, and took away our edge. It was a lethargic performance, and set the tone for the xmas period.
Players like Bell put in the side, then taken out, then put back in. The poor lad is suffering because of all this.
What message is being sent to him? His boss is indecisive, doesn't know what his best team is, has no real faith in said player. I wouldn't run through a brick wall for that guy. Would I *******s. I would sit, pick up my wage and do the bare minimum. I get paid a good wage anyway, so why go that extra mile. I will probably be taken out of the side the next game, no matter how I play. That's how I would feel. That's the message being sent out to players. And that's the kind of performance you are seeing week on week.
And I just don't agree with your views on games match by match. There is being positive, and there is being blind to what is happening.
We played poorly vrs Birmingham. Made too many changes again, and suddenly, another bunch of players are playing.
Then we played Huddersfield!! I said I thought we where really really poor. You told me I was wrong. It was an even game. Huddersfield then went and lost 5-2 at home to Stoke a few days later, showing what a poor side they actually are. As are Wigan, as are Birmingham. If we had anythinmg about us, we would have picked up points. We made Huddersfield look a decent side. So poor we where on the day. Poor defending, poor keeping, Bennett gave a poor ball away, they score a winner. Poor at Forest, ****e goalkeeping, poor defending. Poor at Birmingham, low on confidence. More changes. Playing Brereton on the wing. His one consistent thing he has done. Bought a striker, plays him on the wing one game in 10 and watches on as his confidence hits rock bottom. What does he do? Plays him on the wing on Sat.
That's not luck Aucks, thats utter ****e.

[seventwo]

Couldn't agree more Champs.
We didn't play well in two if the 4 games won either.
I like Aucks very much but find his arguments monotonous, never answering points.

[champs95]

Couldn't agree more Champs.
We didn't play well in two if the 4 games won either.
I like Aucks very much but find his arguments monotonous, never answering points.

I agree. Barnsley was shocking. We played so poorly it was embarrassing.
Even Saturday, I am now being told we played well and created lots of chances.
We played a woeful Birmingham side who gifted us 2 or 3 very good chances. And somehow managed to lose a game we didnt even play well in, yet bossed.
They went down to 10 men FFS for half an hour. What system did the gormless sod employ to make sure we went on to win?? Nothing, he stood there with his arms folded looking dismayed.

I am watching with interest what happens now. As when things get tough, Mowbray starts outing his players, and blaming them. In public!!! I have never agreed with that. Not many do it, and when they do, it kills a player confidence wise.
I see his comments over weekend, now saying he feels SG needs to score more goals.
What are our coaching staff doing?
TM himself says we paid the money (a large sum!!) for the future. So we can develop and hone their skills and improve them. Will a centre half by trade have a clue how to do that? Will Venus? Another CH by trade. Or Johnson, a winger. These young strikers are not improving here. Both SG an BB are clearly going backwards. Mowbray said of BB last week, he is young, and just has to get over the loss of Dack, and stand up and be the player we paid all that money for!!!! Absolute ****e Mowbray!!!
For starters, don't keep playing him on the wing.

I just think we are a lower than average side, with no real development going on. Often the system doesn't work and we look like a disorganised rabble. Who got lucky with one signing, Dack. Take him out and we are a very poor side, with no real idea. Still poor defensivley, still not addressed the weak goalkeeper situation. Mistakes like Bennett being played. Pointless introductions of players he chased and wanted, who barley play. That's not luck. That's numerous bad decisions catching up with us.

For the record, I think Aucks is a great guy, and I will always listen to his opinion, even if I disagree.
I don't buy all this is down to luck.
Shearer wasn't lucky. He was just a great footballer, who worked damned hard.
Klopp isn't a lucky. he just works incredibly hard to get the best out of people.