Luck

[champs95]

"Come on then? Why do you think we are so poor one week. And ok for a while, then poor again? What's your view on why this is happening? "

Champs - see my reply to Seventwo. I have no simple explanation. If there was one, don't you think EVERY manager would apply it EVERY week?!
I keep saying this: football is complex. All of the following (and more!) are factors in every game:
The managers. (BOTH of them, in each match).
The match-officials.
Injuries.
Form.
Confidence.
Conditions.
Formations.
The intentions of the other team.
Talent.
The way a team "clicks" on the day.
The fact that the opposition make-up suits your team some days, but not others.
The luck of the bounce and the break of the loose ball.
Etc.

Once the game is underway, many of those factors are beyond managerial control. Also, I think that fans often talk as if the opposition isn't there at all! In reality, of course, both managers and both teams are trying to achieve the same thing.

None of that excuses the manager's overall responsibility. Carrying the can is part of what the role entails, and everybody knows that. I just happen to believe that the identity of the man in charge actually matters far less than the media and most fans argue.
No-one here or on other sites has EVER given me a convincing explanation of how there CAN be any such thing as a generically "good" manager when the same man can appear brilliant with one club, but be a dismal failure with another. (Or sometimes, have drastically different seasons with the same club!).
As far as I can see, you - personally - seem to be saying, "Let's just have a change because it's time for one."
Fair enough - it's as good as any other reason, but please don't try to pretend there is convincing football logic behind it.

So you do agree witrh us when we say its not down to luck. That's all we are saying.
Alan Shearer would take great exception at being called lucky. I would too.

[seventwo]

Tired of answering the same questions over and over again Aucks. Already said what happened after the BC game at least 3 times.
Football just isn't as you describe anymore. Technology has taken over every aspect.

[seventwo]

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...51&oe=5EA1EBF7

[AucklandRover]

Champs, I'm saying "luck" is an important factor - along with many others. I included "talent" in the list.
What I don't accept or like is pinning all the blame (or praise!) in one place.

[AucklandRover]

Tired of answering the same questions over and over again Aucks. Already said what happened after the BC game at least 3 times.
Football just isn't as you describe anymore. Technology has taken over every aspect.

But you HAVEN'T answered!
Just tell me how (and why!) Mowbray managed to drain all our players' confidence in the eight or nine days between the Bristol and Wigan games - because that is, apparently, what you and Champs are arguing.

[seventwo]

You need to read our posts, just try it once ffs

[champs95]

But you HAVEN'T answered!
Just tell me how (and why!) Mowbray managed to drain all our players' confidence in the eight or nine days between the Bristol and Wigan games - because that is, apparently, what you and Champs are arguing.

I genuinely haven't said that anywhere. And don't share that feeling.
I was fuming at the time because Sky had screwed us over by moving our game to the 23rd on the Monday night. Meaning we had to go 9 days without a game, then had to play 4 games in 9 days, which put us at a disadvantage.
In the Wigan game we had lost Tosin to injury, we also lost Dack, then Evans. All 3 had been important in our good run. I felt this factored with the fixture pile up, things slightly conspired against us. Of which most where out of our control.
Thats football, it happens.

Now back to what we control.
Bell plays really well vrs Bristol. And is abruptly taken out of the side. Then put back in 2 games later, then taken out, then put back in. Radiculous, unnecessary, unfair on the young lad. We control that, it was part of why we looked a mess over xmas. A young player being ruined by being taken in and out of the side whether he plays well or not.

Brereton, plays really well vrs Bristol. And is abruptly taken out of the side. Then put back in 4 games later. Radiculous, unnecessary, unfair on the young lad. We control that, it was part of why we looked a mess over xmas. A young player being ruined by being taken in and out of the side whether he plays well or not. This lad is being destroyed. It happened last season, and his manager is clueless and for me carries the blame on this. He has been handled unprofessionaly, unfairly and its bloody horrible to watch. Playing a lad on the wing, who isn't a winger. And TM wonders why he has hit rock bottom.

Gallagher plays really well vrs Bristol. And is abruptly taken out of the side. Then put back in 2 games later, then taken out, then put back in. Radiculous, unnecessary, unfair on the young lad. We control that, it was part of why we looked a mess over xmas. A young player being ruined by being taken in and out of the side whether he plays well or not. Now I see his manager doing his usual thing of publicly naming and blaming individual players, which will kill this lads confidence even more. Being completely misused, played on the wing too many times, clearly no real coaching going on, no development of a player. Just a young lad shoved out of position, confidence killed, and being named and shamed in public. He wont score vrs PNE.

Johnson, pathetic, going nowhyere. All the Derby fans told us exactly what he would do. Turn up, look ok for a month in the sun on green pitches in Aug. Then by xmas, will have completely disappeared. Another appalling signing. And no playing.

Rothwell, head down, no goals, no creation, cant pass, cant cross, doesn't contribute. But plays.

This is to name a few of the big mistakes costing us, solely down to the manager. Some things, Sky moving games, injuries, a bad ref decision may be the reason. How about all the mistakes?

In the last 5 games Aucks, how many times has a bad ref decision cost us? I just thought we where poor vrs Wigan and Birmingham. I thought we where awaful vrs Huddersfield. I thought we where even worse vrs Forest. And Birmingham we played 10 men for half an hour. Created so many chances and where unable to score. We didnt play well down there, we played a woeful team, who played badly, and we STILL found a way of losing.

Nah, I'm not putting all of that down to bad luck. You make your own in football. Make a shed load of bad decisions, and you will get bad luck. Make good decisions, and work hard, you will find the luck will be with you.

[AucklandRover]

But I haven't claimed it's all down to luck.
I'm saying there are multiple factors involved.
As for your argument about ruining players' confidence, it just doesn't make sense to me.
If Bell, Gallagher and Brereton have had their confidence destroyed, why have they played well in some games, but not others? There is no logic in it.
The obvious word to describe our season is "inconsistent". Is the manager to blame for that?
Well, of course, he is one of the factors involved, but the first hour at Wigan is what really brought our decent run to an end, and that performance was mystifying. Confidence was at its peak, and we put out a strong, attacking team. Trying to argue that Mowbray was behind that display just baffles me.
The first Birmingham game was a replica of quite a few we have seen. A team playing with only one purpose in mind - to stifle. And we have seen before that we are not good at dealing with that - especially with Dack missing.
In the Cup game, with either Dack or Graham on the pitch, I suspect we would have won comfortably.
Mowbray's recent signings have not been successful. Clearly, that's a black mark against him, but I have never thought or claimed that he was an exceptional manager.
My point is that changing would be pure guesswork, and we have a pretty poor record in the last ten or 12 years when it comes to replacing the boss.
This Division is so unpredictable, we could suddenly win two or three games again. It's a lottery.
If clubs were sacking Championship managers for inconsistency this season, we'd be down to about only three or four still in a job!
In football these days, it seems, sometimes, as if a manager eventually gets sacked because the fans and owners have got bored with him - not because there is any high probability that the replacement will do any better!

[champs95]

But I haven't claimed it's all down to luck.
I'm saying there are multiple factors involved.
As for your argument about ruining players' confidence, it just doesn't make sense to me.
If Bell, Gallagher and Brereton have had their confidence destroyed, why have they played well in some games, but not others? There is no logic in it.
The obvious word to describe our season is "inconsistent". Is the manager to blame for that?
Well, of course, he is one of the factors involved, but the first hour at Wigan is what really brought our decent run to an end, and that performance was mystifying. Confidence was at its peak, and we put out a strong, attacking team. Trying to argue that Mowbray was behind that display just baffles me.
The first Birmingham game was a replica of quite a few we have seen. A team playing with only one purpose in mind - to stifle. And we have seen before that we are not good at dealing with that - especially with Dack missing.
In the Cup game, with either Dack or Graham on the pitch, I suspect we would have won comfortably.
Mowbray's recent signings have not been successful. Clearly, that's a black mark against him, but I have never thought or claimed that he was an exceptional manager.
My point is that changing would be pure guesswork, and we have a pretty poor record in the last ten or 12 years when it comes to replacing the boss.
This Division is so unpredictable, we could suddenly win two or three games again. It's a lottery.
If clubs were sacking Championship managers for inconsistency this season, we'd be down to about only three or four still in a job!
In football these days, it seems, sometimes, as if a manager eventually gets sacked because the fans and owners have got bored with him - not because there is any high probability that the replacement will do any better!

Graham DID play against Birmingham at home Auks. Hate to say it, but while you throw stats at me about Downing. I will throw this little stat at you. I hope it lands, I hope you get why I am saying it, I hope you get where I am coming from. I like in hope ......
earlier this season Danny Graham played a home game vrs Boro at home. He even scored!!! he touched the ball 16 times that day, in 90 mins. It was shockingly low. He scored a pen, and literally did nothing else.
Against Birmingham he touched the ball 9 times Aucks.
Let that land with you before you respond back to me.
He touched the ball 9 times in 90 mins. The stats taken, state this is one of the lowest on record for any professional player, in one 90 min game of football at professional level.
That's stat is NOT isolated. Its a disgrace actually.
Why is this being allowed to happen? Why is he even playing?
After that pathetic performance, he then starts the next game a few days later!????? Why?

I find it interesting that you can quote me stats on Downing, yet on something so damming like this, I can imagine you are completely unaware.
This stat tells me everything I need to know. I had major concerns earlier in the season, I voiced them back then, game 1. We are not heading anywhere with these sorts of players.

Meanwhile we pay £5m for a striker. Ok, fair enough. He then spends the majority of the season asking him to play out wide. And now I see he is publicly shaming Gallagher and stating he doesn't score enough.
I would not want to run the extra mile for this guy. No chance.
The lad won't improve here. Training appears to be a laugh, and nothing else. Young lads like him, Brereton will remain inconsistent at best. Because the easiest option is to revert back to playing Danny Graham. And now we don't have Dack, our tactics, our style of play is shown up for what it is. Dependant, over-reliant on one player. No other way of playing, no other options. Just sit and hope they play themselves back into form.

[AucklandRover]

Champs - we are just never going to see this the same way.
If a player misses a simple chance in front of goal, for me, it is nothing to do with his starting-position.
Fans spend far too much time trying to reason backwards.
When a sitter is fluffed, it is nothing to do with managers or formations!
I totally accept your statistics about Graham, but the fact remains, we have looked far more likely to score with him on the pitch than without him.
With Dack gone, of course, that might have changed.