A question for those interested in...

[Mason89]

Roughly speaking 300,000 youngsters (mostly yes voting) have joined the voters roll in the six years and roughly 400,000 (mostly no voting) people have died in the same period yet we are still at 55/45. How do you explain that other than yes voters have switched to no as they get older and more averse to change?

The polling data is wrong?

If the UK government trusted the figures as much as you, then the 4D chess playing organ grinding virgin would grant one. They’re clearly not that confident.

[Red Zone]

The polling data is wrong?

If the UK government trusted the figures as much as you, then the 4D chess playing organ grinding virgin would grant one. They’re clearly not that confident.

Every single poll since 2014? Now you really are clutching at straws!!! These days opinion poll companies are pretty good at what they do.

What has he to gain by holding a referendum versus just not having one. It would soak up a bunch of time and effort that he would think he would rather spend on other stuff. Even if he wins, so what? As we have seen in the last few years a lost referendum won’t stop the SNP agitating. It may or may not cost Sturgeon her job but do you think any successor would survive as SNP leader if they weren’t pushing for indyref3?

[Mason89]

What has he to gain by holding a referendum versus just not having one. It would soak up a bunch of time and effort that he would think he would rather spend on other stuff.

Yeah, that’ll be it.

[Aldo1983]

No it hasn't, as recent as 1997-2010 Scotland had a UK Government that it voted for

10yrs ago and the only spell in my lifetime that there's been a government in power at Westminster that Scotland voted for.

Hooray!

Let's all march on York.

[Red Zone]

Stewarty, I'm sure you are well fed up of my views by now but if I were an advisor to the SNP I would be strongly advising them to stop focussing on the 35-40% of votes that are already in the bag and whom lap up the English/Tory bashing/blame game and start focusing on what will change the middle 20/30 by about 10% or so. The last six years have proven that simply isn't working (back to Einstein and insanity again).

I regard myself as one of the middle 20/30 and what I honestly think would work better for the SNP is to use this time now (where there will not be a referendum agreed by Johnston in this UK Parliament period) to put together a detailed plan that will convince the middle 20/30 in the areas they worry about including things like currency, membership of the EU, border with England, cost of transitioning to an Independent country, how to close the tax v spending gap etc etc. I truly believe that such a plan that is well thought through and contains warts and all (people will be more inclined to go for it if it is believable than milk and honey bullsh1t - see labour manifesto 2019) will have a much better chance of persuading enough of the swing voters than continuing with the last six years of blaming everything on big bad England.

I'm glad to see that Nicola has been paying attention and that the penny is finally starting to drop with her. A lot of her core vote is pissed off today (see Wings over Scotland website for starters) but those are votes in the bag. She knows she is not getting a referendum any time soon and also that in fact the Scottish people don't want one any time soon (see yesterday's opinion poll) so it's good to see her twin approach of spending this time setting out plans of how Independence would work and answering people's key questions/concerns and targeting the middle 20/30 is her path forward. It's the only sensible way forward at this time until the Brexit dust has settled.

[donsdaft]

Personally I’m all for blowing the b’astards up.

Let’s start with Stoke

[InversneckieDob]

Personally I’m all for blowing the b’astards up.

Let’s start with Stoke

I think that's a plan.

[stewarty27]

Redzone your views and input are always well though out and astutely delivered so of course it will be respected and taken in the right spirit, I have always thought Scotland's Independence is long process and it never really started until 2012 when IndyRef 1 was announced, Pre that time support for Independence was constantly polling at around 24-27% in favour. TBH a majority of people living in Scotland never gave Indy a second thought ! but now 6 years on as you ask what's actually happened ? sure we've had all the sh1t you mention but more importantly people who previously not had much interest in Scotland's constitutional position and for the first time are asking serious questions,

The latest yougov poll put Yes at 51% No on 49% for me that a massive shift in 6 years ! Sure it has been a long time coming but we will soon finally feeling the effect of leaving the EU, for many the sense of loss, and Unionist Remainders waking up to the cold hard reality of being abandoned, of being politically homeless, of losing the ability to be both UK and EU. It will be interesting to see how many are reluctantly taking another look at independence and are also finally seeing the benefits Aye the economical benefits of which I fundamentally disagree with you on.
Scotland has a unique combination of assets with which to build a prosperous and wealthy nation far to many for me to be typing on here. I'll post you a link and you can compare your views on the economy to whats presented here how you take time to look at it.

https://www.businessforscotland.com/...hiest-nations/

As for SNP strategy ..that has all been to focus on the soft No's (the one you regard yourself as) This straegy is driving the more "partisan" supporters crazy But I think Sturgeon and SNP strategy is perfect and working... Our aim is to break up the British state. As just a matter of fact that requires guile and cunning in quantities that are hard to begin to imagine. People like Ghandi who tackled the British state in the past are famous historical figures because they exhibited exceptional characteristics.
‘Passionate speeches’ and getting folk tellt does not constitute a strategy. Nor does pulling your trigger when your enemy is not in your line of sight.
Winning elections is not a failing in a politician. Persistently winning elections after 12 years in government in the face of a daily onslaught of propaganda by the forces of unionism is even less of a failure. Increasing your party’s vote and placing it in an almost unassailable position electorally at this crucial stage is not a failing.
Carefully and steadily increasing your support so that a majority of the electorate backs your position on the constitution is not evidence of an unsuccessful strategy.
Being certain that transition to statehood can be achieved without any suggestion that it is not ‘legal’ is not about being a fussy lawyer and administrator. It’s about protecting the interests of your country and people and making sure that when a majority vote for independence the other side is forced to concede.

Redzone I'm not fed up of your views at all keep em comin min but not so long next time tho,,

[Mason89]

I would argue that support for independence is much more to do with what England is doing, rather than any tactical masterclass from the SNP. She’s got her mandate. She should use it or step aside

[Red Zone]

I will try and keep this a bit shorter

I understand what you are saying about the mid 20's to about 50/50 as being a big step forward but I might contend that, whilst I have no liking for Salmond, it was him that was responsible for getting support up to mid 40's, which it consistently was leading up to the referendum (indeed one poll had it above 50%). However since mid 2014 up until last week the dial had barely moved in the five and a half years under Sturgeon. Yes she has been hugely successful in election after election (other than a blip in 2017) but so what given her sole purpose is to win independence? I am also not sure how much that is to her credit versus the total and absolute collapse of the Labour party in Scotland.

Having said that, as you say, a recent poll had support at 51%, with another one out yesterday at 50% so there has been a clear move in the dial last week of a few percentage points. The big question of course is will this be sustainable given polling was done at the height of the jingoistic Brexit leave party nonsense, pissing many people off with their triumphalism, including myself. Time will tell.

In the meantime this clear change in strategy that Sturgeon has announced makes sense to me. Spending their entire time blaming all of Scotland's problems on big bad England/Tories simply hasn't worked over the last six years. The people they need to persuade are fed up off grievance politics, they want to see much more substance on how things would work in an Independent Scotland, so it's good to see that various papers will be produced in the coming months/years to address this.

I maintain that Brexit remains the key issue here and how it lands at the end of this year and beyond. I know it is just early negotiation posturing going on but at face value both sides are taking a hard line so it remains to be seen if we are heading for a no deal exit or not. People simply don't want another poll any time soon until this is resolved (the opinion poll you quoted showed that large numbers of the people who want to be independent don't want indyref2 either this year or next year). People want to see the impact on the economy and their finances, and on practical things like border issues with England and the EU before having another vote.

The other big question for me is Nicola Sturgeon herself. I simply cannot see any reason for Johnson to agree to another referendum in this Parliament until 2025, regardless of how well the SNP do next year (and with our electoral system they will never win much more than their current seat number). By that time she will have been in charge for 11 years, which is about the shelf life of successful leaders of UK Parties (Thatcher/Blair/Salmond etc). As Mason's e-mail demonstrates, there is already a groundswell for her to be much more bold than her current strategy, both from some of her MP's and many supporters, but I don't think that is in her nature. How much longer will she want to walk the tightrope, especially if Labour duff up the next General Election as well meaning a Tory Government until 2030, given that her troops will be pretty rebellious by then. Will the rumours of a nice cosy UN job be proved right by then?

I've written enough (or I will be getting into trouble again!!) but just to say I stand by what I said about the lack of extra income from oil and gas (look at even today when the Government has brought forward by 5 years the target to ban all new petrol/diesel cars) and fishing (look at the line the EU are taking towards fishing in the upcoming UK trade talks - what do you think their line will be when we go cap in hand asking to be let back into the EU)?