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Thread: Coronavirus and football.

  1. #111
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    I see the BBC have woken up and asking the question that I posed earlier, how many more people will die than would be normal due to coronavirus?

    The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.

    Of course, this will never truly be known until the pandemic is over, which is why modelling is very difficult and has to be heavily-caveated.

    But given that the old and frail are the most vulnerable, would these people be dying anyway?

    Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales: factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure tops 600,000.

    The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths. In short, they would have died anyway.

    It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap.

    A lot of unknowns, though presumably it would be easy to compare the current death rate against the known average? In which case if its slightly higher than normal coronavirus isdn't that big a killer.

    Of course the current actions are based on preventing the NHS being swamped by cases and therefore unable to cope and unable to treat people with other serious illnesses.

  2. #112
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    I see there’s going to be a ‘CGI Grand National’ next week.

    Given how dependent this will be on performance based information gathering it’s surely not beyond the wit and wisdom of the authorities to use the types of information/algorithms that can be gathered from the season so far to resolve this football season.

    For clubs like Liverpool and, at the other end of the spectrum, South Shields, the abandonment of this season would be grossly unfair.
    There are other near certainties - Bolton and Stevenage being relegated for example. For the rest...Euro qualification...much more closely contested promotion, relegation and top six matters it may be less satisfactory but if cricket and now horse racing can use technology in this way then surely so can football.

    Better than writing off all the games played so far imo...although I doubt Ms. Brady will agree.
    Last edited by ramAnag; 28-03-2020 at 10:14 AM.

  3. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    I see there’s going to be a ‘CGI Grand National’ next week.

    Given how dependent this will be on performance based information gathering it’s surely not beyond the wit and wisdom of the authorities to use the types of information/algorithms that can be gathered from the season so far to resolve this football season.

    For clubs like Liverpool and, at the other end of the spectrum, South Shields, the abandonment of this season would be grossly unfair.
    There are other near certainties - Bolton and Stevenage being relegated for example. For the rest...Euro qualification...much more closely contested promotion, relegation and top six matters it may be less satisfactory but if cricket and now horse racing can use technology in this way then surely so can football.

    Better than writing off all the games played so far imo...although I doubt Ms. Brady will agree.
    The trouble is RA, no solution is 'fair'. As in investing money, past performance isn't a guarantee of future returns and other clubs who suffer as a result, will take the league to court.

    The only existing rule that I can see that can't be argued against is that, any club who doesn't fulfill their fixtures, have their results nullified. If no teams fulfill their fixtures, then all previous results will be nullified.

  4. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff Parkstone View Post
    They will need draft lager for the real match experience.

    What would be interesting is if they beam back the game to fan parks elsewhere in the area.

    (Thats a joke btw)
    Draught Pedigree more like.

  5. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ram59 View Post
    The trouble is RA, no solution is 'fair'. As in investing money, past performance isn't a guarantee of future returns and other clubs who suffer as a result, will take the league to court.

    The only existing rule that I can see that can't be argued against is that, any club who doesn't fulfill their fixtures, have their results nullified. If no teams fulfill their fixtures, then all previous results will be nullified.
    Life isn’t fair though Ram.

    It didn’t feel ‘fair’ when we lost at Wembley six years ago but sh*t happens and you have to get on with it

    Personally I can’t see the point of abandoning a season which is 75% complete any more than I can see the point of abandoning a one day cricket match or - I think - a motor race once they have gone past a certain point.

    I still think adding on the average points per game - taking into account remaining home and away fixtures/records - to the current totals would be the fairest way, but doubtless some would seek to complicate things further. As ever there will be winners and losers and the losers will not be happy but then, in the real as opposed to the virtual world, they wouldn’t be happy with disallowed goals, missed open goals, incorrect sendings off or crucial injuries and suspensions either.

  6. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Life isn’t fair though Ram.

    It didn’t feel ‘fair’ when we lost at Wembley six years ago but sh*t happens and you have to get on with it

    Personally I can’t see the point of abandoning a season which is 75% complete any more than I can see the point of abandoning a one day cricket match or - I think - a motor race once they have gone past a certain point.

    I still think adding on the average points per game - taking into account remaining home and away fixtures/records - to the current totals would be the fairest way, but doubtless some would seek to complicate things further. As ever there will be winners and losers and the losers will not be happy but then, in the real as opposed to the virtual world, they wouldn’t be happy with disallowed goals, missed open goals, incorrect sendings off or crucial injuries and suspensions either.
    Realistically they wiill have to finish the season in order to be as fair as possible. That might require some rejigging next season but thats not impossible.

    Whilst the world is not fair, that does not mean we should not strive to be!

  7. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadAmster View Post
    Draught Pedigree more like.
    Ive never had a decent pint at any football ground for many a year, so an indecent lager would follow that trend. Draft pedigree would be far too good and not match the spectator experience at a real game

  8. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by swaledale View Post

    Whilst the world is not fair, that does not mean we should not strive to be!
    Totally agree...so the question is...what is the fairest way to conclude this season and that can’t really be by writing it off when there’s so little left, can it?

  9. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Life isn’t fair though Ram.

    It didn’t feel ‘fair’ when we lost at Wembley six years ago but sh*t happens and you have to get on with it

    Personally I can’t see the point of abandoning a season which is 75% complete any more than I can see the point of abandoning a one day cricket match or - I think - a motor race once they have gone past a certain point.

    I still think adding on the average points per game - taking into account remaining home and away fixtures/records - to the current totals would be the fairest way, but doubtless some would seek to complicate things further. As ever there will be winners and losers and the losers will not be happy but then, in the real as opposed to the virtual world, they wouldn’t be happy with disallowed goals, missed open goals, incorrect sendings off or crucial injuries and suspensions either.
    As you know, my view is in favour of abandoning the season. Your solution is simplistic in the extreme and takes no account of relative strength of schedule. I guess its possible to factor this in too, but the more assumptions and "virtual results" that you factor in, the more it is open to criticism and legal challenge.

    Abandoning the season creates far less losers. Liverpool, those in the automatic promotion places in the other three leagues + national League and maybe to a lesser extent those currently in the playoff positions. Maybe a dozen teams might have a grouse as opposed to perhaps 100 who are happy or neutral. Creating a hypothetical end to the season would leave nobody really happy.

    The person of ill defined skintone in the woodpile is of course qualification for Europe. If indeed there are European competitions next year. It might be easier to, in effect, run the 19-20 European competitions again in 20-21 inviting the clubs that took place in 19-20 to go again. Unfortunate for a team like Leicester, lucky for a team like Spurs. Manchester City would have to be replaced.......

    But this way Liverpool, Leicester, Manchester United, Leeds and Forest are losers, not that this is in any way influencing my thoughts.
    Last edited by Geoff Parkstone; 28-03-2020 at 02:21 PM.

  10. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff Parkstone View Post
    As you know, my view is in favour of abandoning the season. Your solution is simplistic in the extreme and takes no account of relative strength of schedule. I guess its possible to factor this in too, but the more assumptions and "virtual results" that you factor in, the more it is open to criticism and legal challenge.

    Abandoning the season creates far less losers. Liverpool, those in the automatic promotion places in the other three leagues + national League and maybe to a lesser extent those currently in the playoff positions. Maybe a dozen teams might have a grouse as opposed to perhaps 100 who are happy or neutral. Creating a hypothetical end to the season would leave nobody really happy.

    The person of ill defined skintone in the woodpile is of course qualification for Europe. If indeed there are European competitions next year. It might be easier to, in effect, run the 19-20 European competitions again in 20-21 inviting the clubs that took place in 19-20 to go again. Unfortunate for a team like Leicester, lucky for a team like Spurs. Manchester City would have to be replaced.......

    But this way Liverpool, Leicester, Manchester United, Leeds and Forest are losers, not that this is in any way influencing my thoughts.
    Hang on, GP...nothing, but nothing is more ‘simplistic’ than just saying ‘abandon the season’.

    Relative ‘strength of schedule’ counts for little either. Who could have predicted that just a month ago Watford would, not just beat, but completely outplay a previously unbeaten Liverpool or, in our own league, that lowly Wigan would beat Leeds?

    It may be ‘simplistic’ and you may want to factor in such features as injury lists, potential suspensions, fair play bonus etc but imo that becomes too complex.

    Ultimate it is about what is fairest and what could be fairer than basing the remaining home and away fixtures on the average home and away form on display through the first three quarters of this season?

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