O/T:- Of course - it's the media to blame...

[sidders]

Glad to see we've got the old Tarquin back.

I'm not. I preferred the compassionate one who was kind to animals and strangers.

[tarquinbeech]

The article actually asks why Germany's mortality rate is so low, doesn't question the Italian figures at all, and gives several plausible explanations for the difference such as:

Germany's hospitals are not at capacity yet

Germany tests people who have mild symptoms

The initial outbreaks in Germany were among fit young people (with better chance of survival) coming back from ski holidays in northern Italy

Germany doesn't do post-mortem coronavirus testing so if you die at home of respiratory failure in Germany it will be logged as natural causes while in Italy they test you and log it.

I find the "Italian health system being garbage", and "everyone seems to die, it's safer to stay at home" to be insulting to the people working very hard in extremely difficult conditions.

The part about bail outs was also in bad taste but I presume like the rest was intended as bait.

Glad to see we've got the old Tarquin back.

Germany's hospitals are not at capacity yet....no, because Germans don't seem to be getting sick, and don't seem to be dying (in comparable numbers to those from Italy. That is my point.)

Germany tests people who have mild symptoms .....So you are saying that people with mild symptoms are not being tested in Italy, not being recorded and presumably being sent away to get worse (until they are critical), which means they are infecting even more people whilst on walkabout....wow....that appears to be shambolic.

The initial outbreaks in Germany were among fit young people (with better chance of survival) coming back from ski holidays in northern Italy

Germany doesn't do post-mortem coronavirus testing so if you die at home of respiratory failure in Germany it will be logged as natural causes while in Italy they test you and log it.....you missed out the bit where the specialist said "“Clinics dealing with respiratory illnesses have been on high alert about the virus for weeks, so I would be very surprised if there was a significant figure of uncharted deaths.”...in Germany. So the G set up that hypothesis, then decided to dismiss it.

I find the "Italian health system being garbage", and "everyone seems to die, it's safer to stay at home" to be insulting to the people working very hard in extremely difficult conditions. ....Garbage was a bit strong, my apologies. I still maintain that in comparison to the UK, Germany or France, I know which country I would get sick in. One that tests even mild cases, and plans and prepares adequately to avoid being overrun

The part about bail outs was also in bad taste but I presume like the rest was intended as bait.....not really. There has been quite a bit of guff-n-wind posted here and elsewhere about Boris allowing people to die because he hates the lower classes (do we still have those any more?) or China deliberately hiding their infection rates and death so as to massage the figures for political reasons, some have even pontificated that it was deliberate by China ie germ warfare. Are you honestly saying that Italy might not massage the figures to get EU aid?

Glad to see we've got the old Tarquin back.....I asked people to back off a bit, leave the politics out etc, but I was told that it was their right to keep Boris under pressure, it was their right to question and probe.....apparently I am not allowed to do the same about the Italian figures.....strange

[cher1]

There's a really interesting piece about CV and stats here: https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19...atality-rates/

By the way, the rest of the article is much more accessible than the opening paragraphs!

[drillerpie]

Germany's hospitals are not at capacity yet....no, because Germans don't seem to be getting sick, and don't seem to be dying (in comparable numbers to those from Italy. That is my point.)

Germany tests people who have mild symptoms .....So you are saying that people with mild symptoms are not being tested in Italy, not being recorded and presumably being sent away to get worse (until they are critical), which means they are infecting even more people whilst on walkabout....wow....that appears to be shambolic.

The initial outbreaks in Germany were among fit young people (with better chance of survival) coming back from ski holidays in northern Italy

Germany doesn't do post-mortem coronavirus testing so if you die at home of respiratory failure in Germany it will be logged as natural causes while in Italy they test you and log it.....you missed out the bit where the specialist said "“Clinics dealing with respiratory illnesses have been on high alert about the virus for weeks, so I would be very surprised if there was a significant figure of uncharted deaths.”...in Germany. So the G set up that hypothesis, then decided to dismiss it.

I find the "Italian health system being garbage", and "everyone seems to die, it's safer to stay at home" to be insulting to the people working very hard in extremely difficult conditions. ....Garbage was a bit strong, my apologies. I still maintain that in comparison to the UK, Germany or France, I know which country I would get sick in. One that tests even mild cases, and plans and prepares adequately to avoid being overrun

The part about bail outs was also in bad taste but I presume like the rest was intended as bait.....not really. There has been quite a bit of guff-n-wind posted here and elsewhere about Boris allowing people to die because he hates the lower classes (do we still have those any more?) or China deliberately hiding their infection rates and death so as to massage the figures for political reasons, some have even pontificated that it was deliberate by China ie germ warfare. Are you honestly saying that Italy might not massage the figures to get EU aid?

Glad to see we've got the old Tarquin back.....I asked people to back off a bit, leave the politics out etc, but I was told that it was their right to keep Boris under pressure, it was their right to question and probe.....apparently I am not allowed to do the same about the Italian figures.....strange

I never said you shouldn't question those things. Questioning and probing in good taste and in good faith, using an appropriate tone, is useful.

Your point was that Italy's death figures were being manipulated somehow, and called into question, not that Germany has fewer cases (which I agree with and is a demonstrable fact). Germany does also have more free capacity in its hospitals than Italy though.

You might want to rethink the part where you say UK tests mild cases and has a plan to avoid being overrun. Or avoid grouping the UK together with Germany and France in terms of the health service.

I don't know what you know about Lombardy, you're probably thinking pasta, pizza and the Dolmio man in his string vest (that's the image most English people have of Italy), but it's geographically, economically and culturally closer to Switzerland than to Sicily. If I ever had to be hospitalised, I'd be perfectly happy to be hospitalised there.

Fair point about the specialist. The article also quotes an expert saying that they expect the German and Italian mortality rates to equalise over time. You missed that part out.

[optipez]

Strangely enough, the Guardian today is starting to question the Italian deaths v the rest of Europe, especially Germany and the UK, and v other developed countries....something here isn't right.....either these Italians were very seriously ill before (probably because of high pollution levels and infected lungs) or else someone is massaging the figures to gain EU bailouts.....or their NHS system is totally garbage, everyone that seems to go to an Italian hospital seems to die (stay at home, it's safer).....or (my last "or") it's simply nature's way of wiping out a load of very old Italians.

Maybe it's a mix of the above but look at the live figures as they come in, everyone that seems to die in Italy is logged as covid, Mexico has had 2 deaths in 110 million people, Italy is hitting 650 DEAD per day (China, where it started and 1,000 million people is 9 dead per day!!)....

Somebody is not counting these figures correctly....sorry

here is a live update site of infections and deaths....Italy is on a 10% death rate v infected (59,138 cases, 5,476 dead) most other countries are 1% and lower, including the UK.....sorry, it is wrong IMO
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

While I wouldn't question that there are discrepancies in testing and reporting between countries, it is a fact ( and there aren't that many out there) that the Lombardi local paper went from one page of obituaries to ten per week. So something is killing a lot of extra people.

[sidders]

Here's a bloke who would fit in well with some on NCM:-

Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has accused his political foes and the press of purposefully “tricking” citizens about the dangers of coronavirus, as Latin America braced for a spike in the number of deaths.

The pandemic has claimed nearly 15,000 lives across the globe and looks set to exact a deadly toll on Latin America in the coming weeks, with many regional governments closing borders and shutting down major cities in a desperate bid to limit the damage.

But Bolsonaro has resisted such drastic measures, dismissing media “hysteria” over coronavirus and calling the illness “a little flu”.

In a tetchy television interview on Sunday night Bolsonaro again downplayed the pandemic and attacked the governors of key states including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo who have ordered residents to stay at home and are imposing quarantines.

“The people will soon see that they were tricked by these governors and by the large part of the media when it comes to coronavirus,” Bolsonaro said, as his own health officials announced 25 deaths and 1,546 cases of coronavirus in Brazil.