O/T:- US overtake Italy & China for Coronavirus cases

[Lullapie]

Thank you. The different approaches are fascinating. When this is all over, one of the few good things to come out of it will be learning what impact different approaches have on infection and death rates.

I think the crisis in the US will dwarf anything we've seen so far. Cases are hugely ramping up in Chicago, Detroit and New Orleans now. Without a nationwide lockdown, it's hard to see how the trajectory of infections and deaths will be anything other than vertical.

We will definitely learn a lot from this, but Death rates are still very low in the US. Perhaps that is the policy the US are adopting too.

[cher1]

We will definitely learn a lot from this, but Death rates are still very low in the US. Perhaps that is the policy the US are adopting too.

Death rates v confirmed cases are pretty meaningless at this stage, well at least the figures we the public are getting are. Every country is testing a different cohort of people so a country testing people who feel unwell is likely have much lower death rates than somewhere like the UK where our testing has been much more targeted at sick people in hospital.

The increase in an individual country's infection rates day on day (however they measure that) is the predictor of what's coming for a country, as that will be followed with a similar trajectory of deaths after a lag. That doesn't tell us how effectively a health system is preventing people from dying of course, just how rapidly the virus is spreading. It's looking pretty awful for all of us, but given the US hasn't locked down fully, my prediction is it will be truly desperate there.

[LaxtonLad]

They have adopted the Herd Immunity approach. The trouble is that you need big balls to do that, as by nature of the policy many people will get the virus. The idea is to protect the vulnerable.

I personally think it is the only way to go, as unless we lock everywhere down for years, the virus will always be around. MERS has been hanging round for years.

I don't see how a herd immunity can be encouraged, it involves most of the population either being vaccinated (there isn't a vaccine yet) or catching the virus and surviving (or dying).

A simple way of looking at herd immunity is to imagine a street of 40 houses. The people in house 1 have a virus, the people in house no. 40 have not been vaccinated against this virus and are vulnerable. All the people in all the houses in between 1 and 40 (the herd) have been vaccinated or have had the virus, survived and are now immune, the population now has herd immunity and cannot pass on the virus.

A virus is a very strange thing and is considered by some experts in the field to not be "alive" (Life Jim, but not as we know it). It needs a host to live in and uses this host to reproduce, this host either survives or dies, meanwhile it's multiplying and infecting the next hosts and the first host is left either dead or immune. The essential bit here is the moving on bit, it must do this. The virus in people in house 1 cannot move on to house 40 because of all the immune people in between acting as a barrier and so, without a new host, it dies.

[cher1]

This article is really interesting on herd immunity, vaccination etc:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sci...ancing-end/amp

[BigFatPie]

After signing the stimulus act, Trump was surrounded by about 10 blokes. Then he handed them all pens.

Anyone who looks has literal evidence in front of their eyes as to what a clown the man is.

[Mapperleypie]

After signing the stimulus act, Trump was surrounded by about 10 blokes. Then he handed them all pens.

Anyone who looks has literal evidence in front of their eyes as to what a clown the man is.

The man is a Class A D!ckhead

[tarquinbeech]

This article is really interesting on herd immunity, vaccination etc:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sci...ancing-end/amp

Pretty depressing reading....in summary there is nothing we can do to stop this virus until a vaccine is found or up to two-thirds of the world population has caught the disease and died or recovered......some of the stuff is theory and there are plenty of unknowns in there like "will summer weather slow it down"
Lockdowns and social distancing are only prolonging the inevitable (once relaxed the disease will flare up again) but at least is giving medical teams the time to catch up.
Starting to remind me of the Black Death which ravaged Europe in "waves" for around 400 years, wiping out 30 to 50% of the population.
Frightening stuff.

[LaxtonLad]

Pretty depressing reading....in summary there is nothing we can do to stop this virus until a vaccine is found or up to two-thirds of the world population has caught the disease and died or recovered......some of the stuff is theory and there are plenty of unknowns in there like "will summer weather slow it down"
Lockdowns and social distancing are only prolonging the inevitable (once relaxed the disease will flare up again) but at least is giving medical teams the time to catch up.
Starting to remind me of the Black Death which ravaged Europe in "waves" for around 400 years, wiping out 30 to 50% of the population.
Frightening stuff.

Lockdowns and social distancing will not build herd immunity but are in place to do more or less what you say tarquin, to allow medical science time to find a solution and also to keep alive for longer those who would have succumbed. Balance that with allowing the virus to run free, this has the possible consequence of now killing those with just a mild dose who might have survived plus the very specialists working on a vaccine, this also could lead to a breakdown of social norms. Sentiment is on the first option, after all, a hot summer could be the cure-all.

[cher1]

Pretty depressing reading....in summary there is nothing we can do to stop this virus until a vaccine is found or up to two-thirds of the world population has caught the disease and died or recovered......some of the stuff is theory and there are plenty of unknowns in there like "will summer weather slow it down"
Lockdowns and social distancing are only prolonging the inevitable (once relaxed the disease will flare up again) but at least is giving medical teams the time to catch up.
Starting to remind me of the Black Death which ravaged Europe in "waves" for around 400 years, wiping out 30 to 50% of the population.
Frightening stuff.

Indeed. I think some of the modelling on TV shows a scenario where you lockdown then loosen restrictions, and then repeat several times. That manages demand on ITU beds by spreading demand over a longer period and moves us nearer herd immunity, until a vaccine is found. I wonder if that will be what some countries go for? The problem is of course that you would 'sacrifice' (sorry I can't think how else to word it) some people by not maintaining full lockdown. Lets hope the summer has some sort of impact.

[upthemaggies]

Lets hope the summer has some sort of impact.

This was published 4 days ago on the BBC.....

"A recent analysis of the spread of the virus in Asia by researchers at Harvard Medical School suggests that this pandemic coronavirus will be less sensitive to the weather than many hope.
They conclude that the rapid growth of cases in cold and dry provinces of China, such as Jilin and Heilongjiang, alongside the rate of transmission in tropical locations, such as Guangxi and Singapore, suggest increases in temperature and humidity in the spring and summer will not lead to a decline in cases. They say it underlines the need for extensive public health interventions to control the disease."