George Caulkin in The Athletic

[Zippity]

Ok. Definitely not a bullshitter...and definitely not on Ashley's side. I know it's a long read....but be interested to know what we all make of this.
And I know, I know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me 87 times....etc, etc....but....well, have a read anyway.

This has been a year in the making, even longer if we retreat to the winter of 2017-18 and Amanda Staveley’s first attempt to buy Newcastle United. While pandemic and economic turmoil does not appear fertile territory for a takeover, the Mike Ashley era at St James’ Park has never been closer to ending and rarely has it felt more appropriate that it should do so. In every respect, it has been a long time coming.

Until now, The Athletic has refrained from written comment on Staveley’s re-emergence as a co-bidder for Newcastle, which was initially reported by the Wall Street Journal in late January. This was not a reflection on the validity of the story, but more a response to the timing. Leaks rarely help and this one certainly didn’t, serving to hoist the drawbridge on discussions and temporarily raising suspicion on both sides.

There is chronic takeover fatigue among Newcastle supporters, understandable given that rumours typically emerge close to the transfer window or season-ticket deadline. So many false dawns have broken over Tyneside over the last decade and more. Our policy has been to withhold fuel from the fire until substantive progress has been made and then to offer as much detail as possible.

Are we at that stage? Well… almost. But the point has been reached when not writing becomes less helpful than writing. One of the most interesting aspects about The Telegraph’s report that the Premier League has been notified about Staveley’s intention to buy Newcastle (which took place last week) is the outpouring of disbelief and conspiracy theories on social media about Ashley’s desire to deflect bad publicity.

So here is context, a bit of it general, some more specific. The biggest of big pictures is that signatures — electronic, presumably, in this era of self-isolation — have not yet been put to the document which, subject to regulatory approval, would transfer Newcastle’s ownership. But rarely, if ever, has there been greater confidence from a number of sources that the printer ink will finally flow.

Is cynicism natural? Yes. But this is categorically not an invention of Ashley’s spin doctors — desperate to bury his public apology last week for trying to keep his Sports Direct retail shops open during the coronavirus shutdown — or Newcastle’s failure to offer financial relief to struggling season-ticket holders. Both of those things were something else entirely. It was further weary evidence of why the club needs to reset.

It is only when an agreement is formalised and submitted that the Premier League will begin its background checks on Staveley and her group, which also features the Reuben Brothers — one of Britain’s wealthiest families, worth £16.6 billion according to the 2019 Sunday Times Rich List — and, most noteworthy, Saudi Arabia’s investment arm. In turn, they have been informed that the owners’ and directors’ test, which investigates proof of funding and suitability of prospective club custodians, will take up to four weeks to complete.

If and when that process begins, there would be no grand announcement, or daily statements about plans and procedure. Until Premier League approval is granted, no significant decisions can be put into effect and so there is little reason to pre-empt them — although with the consent of both sides, preparations for the handover can begin. This may be even more important during a lockdown, when travel and movement are so difficult.

In public, there would be a form of limbo, although that will not be a new sensation for anybody. Just as it always has been, the official line from the Premier League is “no comment”. The club, which today placed its non-first-team staff on furlough, never offers the media or their fans guidance on matters like this — including over Rafa Benitez’s future last summer — beyond saying that it is business as usual.

This is not a back-of-a-cigarette-packet operation, however. It was last spring that Staveley began the process of assembling this consortium to purchase Newcastle, a painstaking challenge that would have seen others off. Her determination was all the more admirable after the first attempt to pull off a deal (in January 2018) ended in a source close to Ashley telling Sky Sports News that negotiations had proved “exhausting, frustrating and a complete waste of time”.

Staveley and her PCP Capital Partners firm were stung by that. In an interview with The Times that month, she detailed the three bids she had made for Newcastle. “This is something we’ve been working really hard on,” she said. “It’s not something we’ve just thrown together. I’m putting a lot of my own capital into this and investors, who come from around the world, include sovereign wealth funds.” Was she a time-waster? “Absurd,” she said. “It’s hurtful.”

The Reubens, who were involved back then, are again prominent, and, like PCP, will take a 10 per cent stake in the club if the deal is waved through by the authorities. The rest — 80 per cent — would be controlled by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia, a prospect that offers excitement as well as dilemmas. Middle East involvement has revolutionised Manchester City, but there will also be concerns over human-rights violations and “sportswashing”.

It has taken months for PIF to commit, but that commitment is now viewed as total, which partially explains the timing. To the question of why anybody would seek to make a multi-million pound acquisition during a public health crisis when the markets are reeling, the answer is that this is not a short-term proposition. They are not buying Newcastle to sell it, but to invest and grow. It is for 10 years’ time, not just now.

If you can afford to look at the world like that, then COVID-19 is not such an overwhelming proposition, even if the effects may stretch for months. There is also a thought that Ashley may now be more receptive to selling given the damage done to his firm’s share price, as well as the harm he has suffered to his reputation over recent days. It is said that the price is now considerably less than the £340 million first reported.

Ashley has always been described as a difficult seller — and many supporters would replace the word “difficult” with “unwilling”. That is a reflection on a cry-wolf owner who has repeatedly apologised for his mistakes, then repeatedly made new ones. He has officially put the club up for sale on three occasions — September 2008, June 2009 and most recently October 2017 — and twice taken it off the market.

Yet perhaps there has been a shift. Perhaps it has taken a while for Ashley to accept that this is for real. He has always been an instinct businessman — buying Newcastle without completing due diligence, spooking Sports Direct investors by taking scattergun positions in other companies — and this has been a laborious enterprise. He does not like information leaking out and he recoils from formality.

...continued in next post

[Zippity]

If this was a normal business, insiders say, a transaction would have been completed weeks ago, but this is an abnormal situation at an abnormal moment. On Staveley’s side, there are three principals, who must each agree any changes to terms and contracts, then put them to their own lawyers. That would be arduous enough with things like due diligence and business plans, but unknowns, such as HMRC’s investigation into Newcastle, multiply the problem.

Resolving those issues has taken a lot of time and much hard work, but there are no longer doubts about Ashley’s motivation. There is cordiality on both sides of the negotiating table and mishaps are not anticipated, albeit with the obvious caveat about Ashley’s unpredictability. And what about those “no bid” stories? A matter of semantics; you can make formal bids or you can talk and build your way to an agreement.

Those talks have been led by Justin Barnes, Ashley’s lieutenant, and Chris Mort, a lawyer at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and a former chairman of Newcastle who is again acting for Staveley, just as he was three years ago. If this is wasting time, then it is also wasting bucket loads of money, which is just one part that has never made sense. PR stunts are not this convoluted or expensive.

None of which is to say that a takeover will happen, but there is momentum behind it and a desire to get it done. It is close; close enough to accept as a realistic proposition, if not yet enough for the hashtag #cans to be trending on Twitter (it would be a source of widespread regret if the coronavirus denies the city a celebratory party). Newcastle have ambled down this path before and found their way blocked, but there is substance to this and it merits recording.

As to what it might mean for Newcastle? Maybe it is too soon for that, beyond saying that Staveley, her husband Mehrdad Ghodoussi, Jamie Reuben (the son of David and the nephew of Simon) and Yasir Al-Rumayyan (the governor of PIF) would sit on the club’s board, while others have been approached about potential roles within the footballing operation. With so much uncertain, not least how or if the remainder of the season will play out and what, if anything, it might mean for Financial Fair Play, a lot is on hold.

Yet Staveley has already hinted in broad brush terms about the kind of club Newcastle may become and how the city may evolve around it: the Reubens have property in the region and the Saudis are receptive to wider investment. “Newcastle has a proper history and a real magic,” she said in her Times interview (a declaration of interest; the interview was with me). “That passion of the fans is *****ly important when you’re looking at a club, because you know that you’re a custodian.

“I’m also a passionate believer in investment in the north east, because I know it’s tough. A lot of great things are happening in the city — we’ve got friends, like the Reubens, who have invested there — and it’s a real special place, with it’s own identity. It is absolutely unique. This is an investment, but it has to be a long-term investment. Newcastle would be run as a business, but we want it to be a successful, thriving business that is an absolutely integral part of the city.”

That concept, that dream, is still intact.

[Jammy89]

I read that earlier.

And whilst i said bull**** and nothing will happen.

This gives me frissons of hope.

Yet at the same time, it's the same ****e - something goes tits up for Ashley and then takeover talks comes out.

Yet, yet, yet. . . his wealth is being shot by this current crisis, he's getting attacked by a usually friendly media and when you've got the wealth and planning of the Saudi's, this recession (or soon to be, i expect) could be an opportunity.

Do i think take over talks are bull**** - yes.

At the same time has it lit the fire of hope in me again - yes.

Do i expect to be disappointed - also yes.

Not sure what i'm really trying to say but. . . hey you have an answer of sorts

[Zippity]

The problem is, the words used right before it goes tits up are usually....'it seems different this time'


But this time, it.......

...nah, can't bring myself to even finish that sentence!

[ronandtet]

I read that earlier.

And whilst i said bull**** and nothing will happen.

This gives me frissons of hope.

Yet at the same time, it's the same ****e - something goes tits up for Ashley and then takeover talks comes out.

Yet, yet, yet. . . his wealth is being shot by this current crisis, he's getting attacked by a usually friendly media and when you've got the wealth and planning of the Saudi's, this recession (or soon to be, i expect) could be an opportunity.

Do i think take over talks are bull**** - yes.

At the same time has it lit the fire of hope in me again - yes.

Do i expect to be disappointed - also yes.

Not sure what i'm really trying to say but. . . hey you have an answer of sorts

even though i've got shares I don't understand when they say " his value is in shares " then when shares drop "he's still rich cause he's still got shares"??
previous takeovers I've always thought well 10% posibility now - 20% after all as is said he's taking a hit - shares dropping - no profits from his shops - closed with no forseeable opening maybe he needs capital

[Geordie1974]

When these rumours first started Caulkin refused to comment until he had something concrete to comment on. He is close to Staveley and saw proof of 3 bids.
He is the only journalist I have time for. Those at the Chronicle are not worth a light. For him to run a piece like this there must be something in it. Something from the buyers side that is. One problem though, Mike Cùnt Ashley.
Keep an eye on Jamie Ruben, he will have to resign from the board at QPR. One thing my mate said on the phone earlier after reading this was it wouldn't surprise him if Ashley took the money, bought up enough shares in Sports Direct now they are falling, to take over completely and take it off the stock market.
We all know what he did to minor shareholders here. A little backhander in a brown envelope to the next majority shareholder at Shìte Direct to gather enough shares to gain full control again would be just his style.

[TANYA_]

When these rumours first started Caulkin refused to comment until he had something concrete to comment on. He is close to Staveley and saw proof of 3 bids.
He is the only journalist I have time for. Those at the Chronicle are not worth a light. For him to run a piece like this there must be something in it. Something from the buyers side that is. One problem though, Mike Cùnt Ashley.
Keep an eye on Jamie Ruben, he will have to resign from the board at QPR. One thing my mate said on the phone earlier after reading this was it wouldn't surprise him if Ashley took the money, bought up enough shares in Sports Direct now they are falling, to take over completely and take it off the stock market.
We all know what he did to minor shareholders here. A little backhander in a brown envelope to the next majority shareholder at Shìte Direct to gather enough shares to gain full control again would be just his style.

Didnt Jamie Reuben leave QPR just before new year?

Im sure QPR released a statement wishing him the best of luck in his new football adventure.

i may be wrong but it does ring a bell

[TheOtherTerryMac]

Ashley’s shares have taken a massive hit with SD and at the current price it would be beneficial to him to try and take full control back if he had the cash.

There might be a slim chance that he would sell the Toon to finance this. Also a lot of other Companies are lame ducks at the minute and ripe for a takeover. This kind of stock market is right up Fattys street

One can live in hope

[toonfalifekevbrown]

I hope it is true
Just shows the fat one gets got in the pocket and it does affect him
Pity all toon fans didn't stick together as we could have got rid of him 12 years ago

[Geordie1974]

Didnt Jamie Reuben leave QPR just before new year?

Im sure QPR released a statement wishing him the best of luck in his new football adventure.

i may be wrong but it does ring a bell

The QPR owner congratulated him on his new venture and wished him well on one of his social media platforms. Can't remember which, think it was Twitter. He thanked the owner then it was quickly deleted.
He is still there at the moment but is a massive NUFC fan.