O/T:- COVID-19 Data Thread

[drillerpie]

Speaking of data, this article about the way deaths are reported in the UK, and how long it takes, is quite informative. It basically restates what I said the other day on another thread about the definitive death toll only being calculated some time afterwards. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-toll-is-wrong

Together with some other data I posted from the Italian version of the ONS, showing the total number of deaths in Bergamo in the first three weeks of March rose by 300% compared to the average in the same period over the previous four years, I think we can say that some of the more outlandish theories (no worse than flu, is not even a proper flu, only kills people who would've died anyway) to bed for once and for all.

Speaking of which, somebody needs to tell these lazy Ecuadorians to stop taking naps in the road and consider themselves lucky they don't have a proper bout of flu like Jackal gets.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...06392030994831 (graphic images)

[ancientpie]

That's no good, MB. According to Ancient Pie you can't believe it if you can't see it. You need to do a bit of plane hopping, but hang on ...

Or have a friend in America apparently, nice to see that MB doesn't take everything in the media as gospel.

[downunderpie]

Think you will find North Korea have tested 1000% of pop and found no cases..

[ncfcog]

On the face of it it looks like death rates have slowed slightly, however I’m going to wait until tomorrow’s figures as there will be more to work with.

[Old_pie]

On the face of it it looks like death rates have slowed slightly, however I’m going to wait until tomorrow’s figures as there will be more to work with.

Can you include analysis that includes the population of the country? The current rates are so dependent on the testing rates which appear to be very variable.

[ncfcog]

Can you include analysis that includes the population of the country? The current rates are so dependent on the testing rates which appear to be very variable.

Definitely, I need to really study the data that’s available and make sure the analysis actually means something.

[BanjoPie]

Firstly, please be assured there is no morbid reason for this thread, just responding to other comments and thinking it might be good to provide a thread where we can post and discuss new data and info as it happens.

I'll start by posting some charts and stats that will hopefully give us all an overview of where we are currently at both here in the UK and globally. In the charts I have focussed on countries I think will be of most interest to posters on the forum and have used online sources which are credited in the charts.

I'll try to keep it as brief as possible.

Current key figures for the world after todays updates. . .

Cases: 1,062,777
Deaths: 56,607
Recovered: 225,622

This means that globally out of the 282,229 closed cases to date approx 20% have resulted in a death. This seems quite high but can be expected to drop as the recovery rate would be expected to rise in comparison to the increase in the number of cases reported due to more testing.

Daily deaths recorded up to 11.30am today so does not include todays figures from overnight. The UK pretty much tracking Italy's trajectory approx doubling every 2.5 days, Spain currently doubling every 2 days and the US hovering around every 3 days.

Attachment 15410

The case fatality rate (CFR) compares fatalities to cases. Italy with a CFR of 12% with Spain and the UK hovering around 9%. Interestingly the US is pretty low in comparison.

Attachment 15411

Total confirmed deaths in the following chart again shows Italy pretty much off the scale. More interesting is the sudden slow down and levelling of in China. One has to ask the question how accurate is the sata they are releasing? Alternatively we can take it at face value and take some comfort from the fact they might actually be over the worse which is good news for the rest of us.

Attachment 15412

Looking at the UK and including the latest figures cases and deaths continue to rise as expected.

Attachment 15413

Map of UK and current cases by location:

Attachment 15414

There's been quite a bit of discussion around testing and how effective this can be when it comes to identifying and reducing the spread of the virus.

I also have data relating to testing and how age is affected by the virus but I can only attach 5 pics per post so will have to add these later.

I would encourage others to add to the thread if they wish as things are moving extremely quickly and I won't be able to keep on top of everything myself.

Also, I've not made any kind of insightful analysis yet as it could get quite boring and I think it is more about information than opinion but there is the argument about whether the reporting should include deaths where the virus is not the main cause of death but was present at time of death. Personally I think it should be reported if present as this is the only way to keep accurate records but maybe there should be a seperate column for underlying health issues?

another would be expert - just do your bit by STAYING AT HOME

[navypie]

VID-20200401-WA0000.mp4

Well, that's not working.

[Old_pie]

Definitely, I need to really study the data that’s available and make sure the analysis actually means something.

There is something that the NHS should, but I bet don't know. The UK Chinese population will all have been wearing masks from the very beginning. I remember seeing them weeks before the lockdown. So what is their infection rate versus the population at large? So many unknowns!

[navypie]

Seems someone isn't happy being told he's got it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5R0UHGh8vA