Expert? Not at all, I would imagine I would need some sort of qualification in virology to come anywhere near expert, just interested in the data and discussing possible trends with other like minded members of this board.
Well yes, of course, that goes without saying . . . stay safe pal.- just do your bit by STAYING AT HOME
By my reckoning Boris actually makes it three of the last five PMs to have received hospital treatment while in office, assuming Cameron and May didn't have any secret treatment. Gordon Brown was admitted with eye problems and Tony Blair was admitted with a cardiac arrhythma. Plus of course, Tony Blair would not have become Prime Minister in 1997 had his predecessor John Smith not died of a heart attack three years earlier.
Ok so until yesterday it had happened twice in 23 years, that's quite rare. I can't remember Major going to hospital so probably longer than that.
I can't remember Thatcher being admitted to hospital either but maybe she was, I don't know.
None of those you mentioned were in the middle of national crises either.
Gordon Brown's reign was a national crisis!
I must say, seeing all the well wishing from opposition politicians towards Boris brings to mind this old 'Not The Nine O'clock News' classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9b7wmRsy9g
So the great news is Spain's daily death count has dropped for the third consecutive day and looking at Italy and the UK a similar pattern seems to be emerging which would suggest self isolation measures are starting to have a positive affect.
The data relating to testing is still very sketchy but what is becoming evident is that the percentage of serious cases is dropping the more tests are done, now down to approx 5% globally.
Some questions asked about testing and how affective it is. Obviously the more testing that is done the higher the number of cases identified but this will likely see a percentage reduction is serious or critical cases.
In most cases testing had only occurred when symptoms were visible but we have seen that increased random testing helps to identify any patterns in the spread of the virus and can help with ensuring self isolation is enforced more effectively.
I know I keep talking about S Korea but here is a nation that assuming their figures are correct has managed to keep the spread of the virus down to a minimum. Mass random testing has played a very big part in this.
Total deaths per 1m of population for a few selected countries below, correct as of yesterday.
Daily deaths for a small selection of countries. France has seen a spike because of a change in their reporting of the deaths and Australia, like S Korea showing aggressive testing and isolations rules make a difference.
Again, assuming they are being honest with us China do seem to have got over the worst of it it what looks like a two month period. Once the cases and deaths started to drop they did so quite quickly.
Hopefully we are just about at our peak and we will see if over the next few days the death rate continues to drop. Fingers crossed it does and maybe an extension to the current lockdown guidelines will get us down to more manageable numbers. I suppose the next big challenge will be how to let people get back to normal without providing the virus an opportunity to spread again.
Disclaimer: I am not an expert!
You might not be an expert according to your disclaimer, nfog, but the analytical work you do on this subject and on football matters is excellent.
Whilst ever there is a discrepancy in the % of the population tested then this is my preferred statistic when comparing nations. Even for any nation as testing ramps up that will affect the figure too.
In the above the UK doesn't look too bad in comparison to some. Obviously the shape will change but hopefully we will remain below Italy's level.
Now just need to add to that the normal (pre-Covid) death rates.
It is still a terrible business to be looking at what are people, mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters etc and doctors, nurses, health workers and so on and I can't help feel that we were a week or two too slow from "Taking the right action at the right time".
We were slow getting people off cruise ships, slow getting our people back from other countries. And I do wonder if our bureaucratic "Get three quotes and choose the cheapest" purchasing regime left us with the cheapest with nil stock for PPE.