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Thread: O/T:- COVID-19 Data Thread

  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
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    6,408
    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    So the great news is Spain's daily death count has dropped for the third consecutive day and looking at Italy and the UK a similar pattern seems to be emerging which would suggest self isolation measures are starting to have a positive affect.

    Attachment 15438

    The data relating to testing is still very sketchy but what is becoming evident is that the percentage of serious cases is dropping the more tests are done, now down to approx 5% globally.

    Some questions asked about testing and how affective it is. Obviously the more testing that is done the higher the number of cases identified but this will likely see a percentage reduction is serious or critical cases.

    In most cases testing had only occurred when symptoms were visible but we have seen that increased random testing helps to identify any patterns in the spread of the virus and can help with ensuring self isolation is enforced more effectively.

    I know I keep talking about S Korea but here is a nation that assuming their figures are correct has managed to keep the spread of the virus down to a minimum. Mass random testing has played a very big part in this.

    Total deaths per 1m of population for a few selected countries below, correct as of yesterday.

    Attachment 15439

    Daily deaths for a small selection of countries. France has seen a spike because of a change in their reporting of the deaths and Australia, like S Korea showing aggressive testing and isolations rules make a difference.

    Attachment 15440

    Again, assuming they are being honest with us China do seem to have got over the worst of it it what looks like a two month period. Once the cases and deaths started to drop they did so quite quickly.

    Attachment 15441

    Hopefully we are just about at our peak and we will see if over the next few days the death rate continues to drop. Fingers crossed it does and maybe an extension to the current lockdown guidelines will get us down to more manageable numbers. I suppose the next big challenge will be how to let people get back to normal without providing the virus an opportunity to spread again.

    Disclaimer: I am not an expert!
    An excellent analysis there Ncfcog. Please keep up the good work.

    Let’s hope that over the course of this week and coming weeks the number of new cases per day starts to drop or at the very least level out as a result of lockdown measures that commenced two weeks ago.

    Also coupled with an increase in the number of tests per day then hopefully the percentage of new daily cases compared to the amount of tests carried out begins to reduce. Once the daily amount of people who pass away also begins to reduce then we really will be making progress.

    It’s 33 days since we recorded our first death here in the UK and sadly as of today over 5,300 people have died. That’s now more than Notts average home attendance of 5,210 for this season.

    That’s why is so important we all continue to stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives.
    Last edited by MAD_MAGPIE; 06-04-2020 at 08:01 PM.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    7,329
    Quote Originally Posted by Old_pie View Post
    Now just need to add to that the normal (pre-Covid) death rates.
    I suppose the problem with that is not also knowing at this stage how many deaths were inevitable or due to underlying health issues, that needs to be compared to those where the virus was the main cause of death. Unfortunately those numbers have not really been published.

    That said, we know the virus is respiratory and has the ability to take a healthy persons life so I suppose it’s good every case is recorded to ensure the spread is tracked as accurately as possible.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    7,329
    As more testing is done the more the number of positive covid cases increase. More than 1.4m cases now confirmed globally with deths now exceeding 82,000. Over 300,000 people have recovered from the virus and of the 1m + cases still active 5% remain serious or critical.

    Closer to home the UK having had a couple of days of reduced daily deaths saw it's biggest daily increase so far, 786 in total. Italy and Spain remained pretty static and look like there are signs of finally flattening the curve, France however saw another big increase but again their reporting of previous cases and deaths has been erratic.

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    Deaths by 1m population:

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    There's an interesting study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggesting that here in the UK we are 9 days from peak death rate and that this could potentially reach upwards of 3,000 deaths per day and 66,000 totyal deaths by the beginning of August. Additionally they say suggest that at it's peak cases requiring hospital beds will increase to over 100k and the current bed capacity for the virus is just 20k.

    If you compare the UK's trajectory to that of Italy and France then a week to 10 days looks about right for the UK peak so wouldn't be surprised if the lockdown continues until the end of the month at least. However the question still remains are we that far behind Italy due to the spread of the virus or because we were slow to start social distancing and isolation measures? Hopefully it is the former because if it is the latter then the death toll could continue to rise in accordance with the IMHE study, or worse. I believe an update regarding the current lockdown in the UK will be updated on monday by the powers that be.

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