O/T:- COVID-19 Data Thread

[ncfcog]

Firstly, please be assured there is no morbid reason for this thread, just responding to other comments and thinking it might be good to provide a thread where we can post and discuss new data and info as it happens.

I'll start by posting some charts and stats that will hopefully give us all an overview of where we are currently at both here in the UK and globally. In the charts I have focussed on countries I think will be of most interest to posters on the forum and have used online sources which are credited in the charts.

I'll try to keep it as brief as possible.

Current key figures for the world after todays updates. . .

Cases: 1,062,777
Deaths: 56,607
Recovered: 225,622

This means that globally out of the 282,229 closed cases to date approx 20% have resulted in a death. This seems quite high but can be expected to drop as the recovery rate would be expected to rise in comparison to the increase in the number of cases reported due to more testing.

Daily deaths recorded up to 11.30am today so does not include todays figures from overnight. The UK pretty much tracking Italy's trajectory approx doubling every 2.5 days, Spain currently doubling every 2 days and the US hovering around every 3 days.



The case fatality rate (CFR) compares fatalities to cases. Italy with a CFR of 12% with Spain and the UK hovering around 9%. Interestingly the US is pretty low in comparison.



Total confirmed deaths in the following chart again shows Italy pretty much off the scale. More interesting is the sudden slow down and levelling of in China. One has to ask the question how accurate is the sata they are releasing? Alternatively we can take it at face value and take some comfort from the fact they might actually be over the worse which is good news for the rest of us.



Looking at the UK and including the latest figures cases and deaths continue to rise as expected.



Map of UK and current cases by location:



There's been quite a bit of discussion around testing and how effective this can be when it comes to identifying and reducing the spread of the virus.

I also have data relating to testing and how age is affected by the virus but I can only attach 5 pics per post so will have to add these later.

I would encourage others to add to the thread if they wish as things are moving extremely quickly and I won't be able to keep on top of everything myself.

Also, I've not made any kind of insightful analysis yet as it could get quite boring and I think it is more about information than opinion but there is the argument about whether the reporting should include deaths where the virus is not the main cause of death but was present at time of death. Personally I think it should be reported if present as this is the only way to keep accurate records but maybe there should be a seperate column for underlying health issues?

[Old_pie]

I have to say that it is not a fun exercise. I sort of enjoyed doing the graphs for the points for survival for the relegation season, well that was until we were down and watching the progress this season has been interesting. But this is life and death, and more important than Bill Shankly's statement.

Nonetheless I do want to understand the figures in context because it is easily overlooked that ~1500 people die every day normally, and some of them of flu and respiratory diseases. Also as discussed in the other thread the death rate v cases needs to take into account testing, or needs to be looked as a percentage of total population. I want to know how frightened I need to be, and I am uncomfortably scared and happy to stay in.

The deaths of nurses and health care workers is shocking. They go in, under-protected trying to save lives. I couldn't do it.

The mask yes/no is confusing as are gloves. I'm going to do a dirty job, guess what, I put gloves on and my hands are cleaner than if I didn't. There's stuff in the air and an easy way to reduce it, reduce touching of face, and beats trying to get a tissue out in time to beat a cough or a sneeze. It's like saying "Don't wear seat belts, you'll have a false sense of security and in some cases you are more likely to die".

At least the roads are more how I remember them 55+ years ago when I was on my bicycle all the time.

Sorry, I've drifted a bit. I can't help feel now that it must have been obvious to some that action should have taken place earlier and last Monday's figures were just a statistical aberration.

[MagicBoots]

A stat I was trying to find out last night was who is doing the most testing per day per capita daily. I could find a cumulative total, since the beginning of the outbreak, but now a lot of countries have woken up to the WHO recommendations -as of today who is doing most.

It was said on the US update last night it is the USA, but I was wondering if it was supported because it’s quite a turnaround as they were doing perhaps the lowest at one point.

[ncfcog]

A stat I was trying to find out last night was who is doing the most testing per day per capita daily. I could find a cumulative total, since the beginning of the outbreak, but now a lot of countries have woken up to the WHO recommendations -as of today who is doing most.

It was said on the US update last night it is the USA, but I was wondering if it was supported because it’s quite a turnaround as they were doing perhaps the lowest at one point.

Yes it was the US but now I think Italy have just taken over.

[ncfcog]

A stat I was trying to find out last night was who is doing the most testing per day per capita daily. I could find a cumulative total, since the beginning of the outbreak, but now a lot of countries have woken up to the WHO recommendations -as of today who is doing most.

It was said on the US update last night it is the USA, but I was wondering if it was supported because it’s quite a turnaround as they were doing perhaps the lowest at one point.

sorry not the US, S Korea.

[queenslandpie]

The most testing per day is in Australia we are now testing over 1% of the population.

[MagicBoots]

The most testing per day is in Australia we are now testing over 1% of the population.

Not according to Donald Trump. Let’s be clear, think he is stating as of today on a day to day basis, not the number of tests done ever or the total done since first detection / death in said country.

Just that I can’t find anything to corroborate the assertion. I personally thought it was South Korea, but again, nothing supports this other than what I’ve heard in media.

[sidders]

Not according to Donald Trump. Let’s be clear, think he is stating as of today on a day to day basis, not the number of tests done ever or the total done since first detection / death in said country.

Just that I can’t find anything to corroborate the assertion. I personally thought it was South Korea, but again, nothing supports this other than what I’ve heard in media.

That's no good, MB. According to Ancient Pie you can't believe it if you can't see it. You need to do a bit of plane hopping, but hang on ...

[SwalePie]

Not according to Donald Trump. Let’s be clear, think he is stating as of today on a day to day basis, not the number of tests done ever or the total done since first detection / death in said country.

Just that I can’t find anything to corroborate the assertion. I personally thought it was South Korea, but again, nothing supports this other than what I’ve heard in media.

As a percentage of population tested per day I was under the impression Norway was in the lead.

[ncfcog]

Not according to Donald Trump. Let’s be clear, think he is stating as of today on a day to day basis, not the number of tests done ever or the total done since first detection / death in said country.

Just that I can’t find anything to corroborate the assertion. I personally thought it was South Korea, but again, nothing supports this other than what I’ve heard in media.

As of 2nd April Australia had done 261,000 tests. This isn’t the most tests done, this is the most per capita compared to other countries and as QLD says is about 1% of the population.

I’m struggling to get up to date figures on every country, including the US, but it might be a pointless exercise anyway. Different testing strategies will provide differing case and mortality numbers.

I mentioned Germany in another thread. Their mortality rate is extremely low compared to say the UK but this is because they were aggressive with their testing but mostly tested a healthier demographic.

In the uk most testing was done on patients attending hospital with symptoms so case and mortality rates will be higher.

S Korea are an example of how testing should be done to help stem the spread of the virus. Not only were they extremely aggressive with their testing at a very early stage but the testing was much more random allowing them to locate where the virus was likely to spread most and giving them time to put protective measures in place, including a phone app that tells you if there is anyone near you who has tested positive. This appears to be one of the only models to date that has shown a positive impact on stopping the spread.