Magpie Circle Altrincham Preview

[Woodypie]

Just a little off target there Woody. This hasn't anything to do with the relegation season, the play off final or whether Ardley should have been sacked etc. They've all been covered numerous times as you know.


If you take another look you will notice this topic is different, this is currently about expected goals Vs actual goals and fair score as opposed to actual score.

We scored the 2nd most actual goals last season but obviously we didn't create much expected goals. This season under Ardley we got actual results, points on the board but again we are told we were very lucky on numerous occasions, never unlucky.

If Burchnall is gone by the New Year as you say you can pass on more 'words of wisdom' like "pull your finger out" to the next Notts manager. Lol.

Maybe the same message could go to the players who have underperformed under IB and NA. Just a thought

No Laddo, this thread is about the Paul Mace pre Altrincham pod cast. You have decided, as is your want, that it is about something else.
Only on NCM.
#LOL

[jacobncfc]

This is a genuine question - at the end of the season - which would we prefer?

Over-achieving in the xG data and getting promoted.
Under-achieving in the xG data and missing out.

I suppose that over a season, like penalties etc it should even itself out - I'm sure there must be data available to give results.'

The first, definitely. But the theory is that it’s quite hard to do either over a 40+ game season because it’s a big sample size over which things will ‘even themselves out’. We’re quite a good example of this theory playing out - we’re about where we should be over the course of the season, despite bits where we’ve been a bit lucky and overperformed and bits where we’ve been a bit unlucky and underperformed.

There are always outliers, Brighton in the Premier League this season are the best example of a team wildly underperforming their xG, but in general the final table will look pretty similar to the xG one.

What it does allow you to do is identify trends during the season and work out whether you’re on the right track or not.

[ncfcog]

Very interesting, ncfcog. It may explain Burchinall insisting we dominated a game yet conceded two goals, following this line of reasoning it doesn't look as bad as it looks. Does it take into account individual talent or the performance of the team as a whole?

Would it be fair to say that he was unlucky in his eight games? If you would say that then he does deserve more time to settle, or perhaps luck doesn't come into it.

I wonder if these fair results would improve if teams were playing in front of a crowd?

It certainly gives you a feel for how the owners would be assessing performance. On the face of it NA was getting by by the skin of his teeth and those metrics would have given the owners some justification in the change of manager.

There is definitely an element of bad/good luck but that’s just football. The key thing is how the data stacks up. The clubs analysts will have data on individuals including gps data which will assist in identifying things like position as well as more video footage to analyse so the management have all of the coaching tools at their disposal they could possibly ask for. My analysis is limited to just the data I can get and I have to pay for it as well!

Without doubt no fans in the grounds has been a massive leveller this season and I think this has affected Notts more than others.

[durhampie]

If we play well every week and lose, but the stats say we should have won and end up getting relegated, does the manager keep his job....

[ncfcog]

If we play well every week and lose, but the stats say we should have won and end up getting relegated, does the manager keep his job....

I think it’s being taken far too literally now. It’s an improvement indicator. The new coaches have had 8 games now and it’s clear that they have the team playing better, but they haven’t had the results. Listening to the recent round of interviews it’s clear they have identified what needs to improve and so they will work on it. If after the last 8 games there’s no improvement in results then you would have to question why that is the case when the coaching staff have had all the tools available to them to improve said results.

[60YearsAPie]

If we play well every week and lose, but the stats say we should have won and end up getting relegated, does the manager keep his job....

The manager keeps his job, the CF who's been missing all the goals loses his, as does the two CH's who have been gifting the opposition goals. Simples. Next silly question, please.

[laddo]

No Laddo, this thread is about the Paul Mace pre Altrincham pod cast. You have decided, as is your want, that it is about something else.
Only on NCM.
#LOL

The title is, but the thread had evolved chap, try and keep up.

Also I didn't bring up expected goals or fair score so not guilty. I understand the basics but no more so happy to learn from those who know more.

Looks like you are trying to instigate an argument! Tut tut Woody.

Back on topic ncfcog and Jacob posted some interesting stuff on a subject I don't fully understand.

[optipez]

The manager keeps his job, the CF who's been missing all the goals loses his, as does the two CH's who have been gifting the opposition goals. Simples. Next silly question, please.

Wrong answer.

[HAPPYMAGPIEHAPPY]

I firmly believe all this xg nonsense is just an interest for the computer geeks to have their bit of keyboard fun.
At the end of the day the figures and percentages Blah blah blah mean nothing to me it’s the final score that matters.

[laddo]

But eventually the poor perfomances catch up with you and poor results following.

If it was indeed just about the final score and nothing else then the moaning on NCM would be instantly cut by about 80% during our time in NL.