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This was posted by a fan on twitter. zits a pretty lengthy analysis but very well put together and accurate i thoughtOriginally Posted by the_anticlough
I’ve ’experienced’ our last 5 games in person and feel i have to make some comment amongst fellow supporters. I’m sorry my thoughts detailed below are lengthy but I’ve tried to focus on causes rather than react to symptoms. And no, I’m not even going to entertain the idea that LW is in some way lacking; this period is a learning experience for him too and he’ll become an even better coach as a result.
Controversially, I don’t think the 1st choice back-3 is the primary issue. I also think that all of our players are capable of playing a role in an L2 team. They are not poor footballers per se and clearly wouldn’t inteionally want to play badly. A few are out of position, others should be squad, rather than 1st 11 players, and some newcomers haven’t been upgrades but are no worse than players we already had)
Quite simply yesterday’s performance was even worse than last week’s (I thought this was impossible). After Walsall I bemoaned the lack of a Plan B required by the conditions and opposition. Harrogate underlined that Plan A isn’t working either now. I think this is due to a combination of tactical naivety and poor recruitment, which has been exacerbated by multiple long-term injuries.
First, Notts actually play 3-2-5 rather than 3-4-3. This was effective against poor NL sides (we were often far poorer against the better sides: Barnet, BW, Bromley etc); however it’s now not workable in L2.
The two-winger (not Wformation provides wide-open channels behind the wingers for the opposition to exploit and drags the wide CBs even wider, creating space in the middle for the opposing strikers. I’ve lost count of the goals now conceded from our right-defensive channel, arguably all three yesterday started from or were finished in this area.
Significantly, this aggressive formation also places the responsibility on transitioning defence into attack firmly at the feet of the two CMs, who are already outnumbered, or the (wide) CBs, who then find themselves out of position if possession is lost. As a result, recent matches have seen Ditzy and Danny C coming very deep to collect the ball and attempt to initiate the transition themselves. Without a means of transitioning from defence to attack, it’s irrelevant how good the forwards are!
Secondly, the summer recruitment required to build a promotion-challenging 3-4-3 team just didn’t happen: positions were simply not filled or the incoming players were not the necessary improvement on existing squad members. This has resulted in quantitative / qualitative gaps at both WBs, CM and GK.
Critically, Notts only have two players who are can be primarily considered as WBs: Chicks and Tobi. I think both are excellent squad players but, as with CMs, WBs are a key (often oveloaded) position in this system and upgrades were required. JJ is most destructive as a CAM (we saw glimpses of this yesterday) and should have playing with Danny C behind Macca. Aaron is an excellent impact sub as a lone winger or offers cover as CAM (together with Sam). Unfortunately, from what I’ve seen across the season, Will Randall is not the answer at WB and seems to have been an unnecessary acquisition.
Our squad was also too small in number, even prior to Cedwyn and Baj’s early injuries. Given their ages, Ditzy and Jim should have been the additional striker / midfielder (CM / CAM) respectively rather than filling a 1st team place. Playing JJ as CAM would allow Ditzy to share some of the load with Macca, whilst offering a front-two option; this would also have somewhat cushioned Cedwyn’s loss.
In addition to Jim, who should have been offered a Michael Doyle-style player / coach role, Notts needed to start the season with 4 first-team capable CMs. The lack of this acquisition became a risk after Baj’s injury and following Matty P’s loss it’s now one of the three main issues with the team. Resultantly, Notts are left to pick a midfield from an out of position Sam Austin, unfit Dan Gosling, semi-fit JB and 36 YO Jim, none of whom offer the defensive / ball-winning ability provided by Matty P (or Baj). This means that the back-3 are exposed to the front as well as at the flanks and that JB lacks the platform to act as the ball-playing deep-lying CM who starts the transitions; hence more goals conceded and fewer goals scored.
Defensively, we needed two more quality players, capable of playing in a footballing back-3. I’m really pleased with Macari’s (now) permanent move but having brought in one young player who lacks experience, the other incoming defender needed to have significant experience at L2 (or L1), sadly another loanee, such as Tipton, was not the answer.
Finally, we needed a new 1st choice GK, retaining Sam Slocombe to offer cover and afford Tiernan the time to grow into contention for the No 1 jersey. Unfortunately, with Aiden, we appear to have two 2nd choice keepers, albeit with different weaknesses and at different career stages. A 3-man defence need an assured sweeper-keeper to offer a mobile final line and rapidly commence moves from the back; this is currently another area of weakness.
As a pretty stark summary, Notts still need to recruit a 1st choice GK, a CB, a CM and two first-team WBs to compete for promotion with a 3-4-3 formation. Plan A needs to be good as the squad size and owners’ footballing vision doesn’t afford the chance for a long-ball Plan B. However, 5 high-quality players can’t be recruited in the January window. I think the best we can hope for is another CM and CB or (L)WB and then look to focused summer acquisitions, within the standard carousel of retention and replacement of players.
I fear this means that, with some recruitment and a little better luck with injuries, we’re looking at a mid-table finish this year (hopefully 8-12 rather than 13 - 18). Does that feel deflating after August - October’s results: yes; would I have settled for that in May: absolutely!
