Never mind the results, feel the stats

[Woodypie]

Us ridiculous oldies constantly fail to understand how meaningless possession is more important than actual results. Surely the one and only metric that really matters is did we win or not. Or isn't winning actually important? Can anyone of you young guys explain why results don't matter in your understanding of football?

[Jampie]

Us ridiculous oldies constantly fail to understand how meaningless possession is more important than actual results. Surely the one and only metric that really matters is did we win or not. Or isn't winning actually important? Can anyone of you young guys explain why results don't matter in your understanding of football?

Is anyone actually saying results don't matter?

I've heard people say statistics don't matter, which is also ridiculous. After all goals are a statistic, as are wins and points...

I think the closest anyone's come to saying "results don't matter" is the owners' recent post about results not reflecting performances due to bad luck, which IMO is an extremely high risk piece of analysis. If you're 100% right, great, if you're even a little bit wrong it can lead to going into next season with a fatally flawed team, a possibility I'm honestly very concerned about.

[Could'vebeenacontender]

Is anyone actually saying results don't matter?

I've heard people say statistics don't matter, which is also ridiculous. After all goals are a statistic, as are wins and points...

I think the closest anyone's come to saying "results don't matter" is the owners' recent post about results not reflecting performances due to bad luck, which IMO is an extremely high risk piece of analysis. If you're 100% right, great, if you're even a little bit wrong it can lead to going into next season with a fatally flawed team, a possibility I'm honestly very concerned about.

Good post
The comments regarding stats suggesting it was largely bad luck that was to blame for our predicament were worrying. It looks like whoever is making recruitment decisions is protecting their position
Everyone in football knows how to play against Notts
We can score 2,3,4 and even 5 goals and fail to win
The players who are making and scoring all those goals have had enough
They know the truth and so do we

[pjace]

The comment the board made regarding luck being the only thing that had changed
was only made to Support their decision to appoint Maynard

[Chicken Balti Pie]

If you listened to Richard Montague on the magpie circle, he explained this. He said that the league table shows exactly where you are based on results but the statistics can help show where you will be in the future.

He stated that the performance metrics we had at the start of the year showed we should have had less points than we got and that recently our performance metrics showed we should have got more points than we got later in the season, this explained the lucky start of the season and unlucky mid to end of the season. He pointed out that under Maynard, the performance stats showed we stayed pretty much level so it probably would have happened under Williams also.

From what was implied, once we realised the budget wasn't as competitive as we had thought, we were hoping for the playoffs but missed out so we actually underperformed the budget. Next year the budget will be bumped a bit as we have the headroom to do so but we still want to out perform it with regards to points and performance.

[queenslandpie]

If you listened to Richard Montague on the magpie circle, he explained this. He said that the league table shows exactly where you are based on results but the statistics can help show where you will be in the future.

He stated that the performance metrics we had at the start of the year showed we should have had less points than we got and that recently our performance metrics showed we should have got more points than we got later in the season, this explained the lucky start of the season and unlucky mid to end of the season. He pointed out that under Maynard, the performance stats showed we stayed pretty much level so it probably would have happened under Williams also.

From what was implied, once we realised the budget wasn't as competitive as we had thought, we were hoping for the playoffs but missed out so we actually underperformed the budget. Next year the budget will be bumped a bit as we have the headroom to do so but we still want to out perform it with regards to points and performance.

Well based on that the only logical statistic I can draw from the performance metrics is that they are never correct! So if the performance stats say one thing then the other is happening.....consistently!

Ultimately you can look at whatever stats you want but we let in too many goals on a consistent basis so we either need new defenders a new formation or both. Stick that in your charts chaps.

[drillerpie]

I thought Montague spoke pretty well, although I thought Joe was probably better in getting to the point and saying things of substance, but I suppose he deals in numbers rather than humans, so it's easier for him to be direct.

The plan is pretty much what we thought it was from previous interviews. They are not going to splurge next year to get promoted at all costs. It sounds like the bros are very much here for the long term and are investing heavily behind the scenes, but don't want to 'do a Wrexham' and buy loads of players too good for the league. There is no satisfaction in that for them. In fact it sounds like they would regard that as failure as it becomes unsustainable.

I am generally in favour of what they are doing. We are experiencing a blip, but they won't panic and throw away the long term plan because of that. I didn't get the feeling that they are as stubborn as some make out, just that they want to do things the right way even if it takes time.

One thing I did find slightly worrying about the stats based approach is when Montague spoke at length about how we had a good defence last year and this year something has changed which they can't quite put their finger on to find an explanation from the data.

That seemed to be to be the verbal version of when to avoid kicking it long we pass the ball 25 times in our own half, narrowly avoiding a couple of catastrophes, before hurriedly passing to the keeper to kick it long anyway. Sometimes you can get so bogged down in a system that you can't see the wood for the trees.

The reason our defence is so bad is that we fall over, forget to mark people, give the ball away in dangerous areas, dont stop crosses and don't win enough headers. All this against teams who are much better than last year, with players who have never really proved themselves consistently at this level. No data required IMO.

It sounded very much like the defence will be the focus of the next transfer market though, which was reassuring.

[Chicken Balti Pie]

Well based on that the only logical statistic I can draw from the performance metrics is that they are never correct! So if the performance stats say one thing then the other is happening.....consistently!

Ultimately you can look at whatever stats you want but we let in too many goals on a consistent basis so we either need new defenders a new formation or both. Stick that in your charts chaps.

You're missing the point. The table gives you the here bad now, the stats give you the trend over time

[Chicken Balti Pie]

I thought Montague spoke pretty well, although I thought Joe was probably better in getting to the point and saying things of substance, but I suppose he deals in numbers rather than humans, so it's easier for him to be direct.

The plan is pretty much what we thought it was from previous interviews. They are not going to splurge next year to get promoted at all costs. It sounds like the bros are very much here for the long term and are investing heavily behind the scenes, but don't want to 'do a Wrexham' and buy loads of players too good for the league. There is no satisfaction in that for them. In fact it sounds like they would regard that as failure as it becomes unsustainable.

I am generally in favour of what they are doing. We are experiencing a blip, but they won't panic and throw away the long term plan because of that. I didn't get the feeling that they are as stubborn as some make out, just that they want to do things the right way even if it takes time.

One thing I did find slightly worrying about the stats based approach is when Montague spoke at length about how we had a good defence last year and this year something has changed which they can't quite put their finger on to find an explanation from the data.

That seemed to be to be the verbal version of when to avoid kicking it long we pass the ball 25 times in our own half, narrowly avoiding a couple of catastrophes, before hurriedly passing to the keeper to kick it long anyway. Sometimes you can get so bogged down in a system that you can't see the wood for the trees.

The reason our defence is so bad is that we fall over, forget to mark people, give the ball away in dangerous areas, dont stop crosses and don't win enough headers. All this against teams who are much better than last year, with players who have never really proved themselves consistently at this level. No data required IMO.

It sounded very much like the defence will be the focus of the next transfer market though, which was reassuring.

I think Montague was being coy. He can't really come out and say that the reason is the step up was too high for most of the defenders. Bearing in mind we will still need to play some of these guys, destroying them on a podcast is not the best idea.

[drillerpie]

I think Montague was being coy. He can't really come out and say that the reason is the step up was too high for most of the defenders. Bearing in mind we will still need to play some of these guys, destroying them on a podcast is not the best idea.

Yeah, that's a plausible explanation for sure.