Will 51 Pts be enough ?

[AlexonTour]

Looking at the remaining games, I have tried to be realistic in the points we can achieve, bearing in mind the teams we are playing and the situtaion they are in (ie promotion, play offs fighting relegation.

Will this be enough ?


Crewe Alex (Current Pts total) 30 Pts
Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0
Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts
Gillingham (a)1 Pt
Notts County (h)3 Pts
Coventry (H)1 pt
Crawley (a)1 Pt
Wolves (h)0
Shrewsbury (a)1 Pt
Colchester (h)3 Pts
Bristol City (a)1 Pt
Preston North End (h)1 Pt

Overall Total51 Pts

[AlexLeicester]

It depends when we get those 51pts. :-D March 15 would be rather good, if nearly impossible!

Marginally more seriously, I think this list is pretty pessimistic and does not take into account the growing confidence we have seen since the beginning of December.

But the bottom half of the table is such a tight mess that any four of 10 or 12 could drop. It's a while since I have seen such a lottery around the drop zone. No room for silly mistakes.

[Crewe313]

This has given me more hope of survival because I agree it is quite a pessimistic outlook, especially away from home. And still we would get 51 which I think would be enough. Don't want to leave it till last few games of the season though

[scottie4960]

Looking at the remaining games, I have tried to be realistic in the points we can achieve, bearing in mind the teams we are playing and the situtaion they are in (ie promotion, play offs fighting relegation.

Will this be enough ?


Crewe Alex (Current Pts total) 30 Pts
Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0
Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts
Gillingham (a)1 Pt
Notts County (h)3 Pts
Coventry (H)1 pt
Crawley (a)1 Pt
Wolves (h)0
Shrewsbury (a)1 Pt
Colchester (h)3 Pts
Bristol City (a)1 Pt
Preston North End (h)1 Pt

Overall Total51 Pts


Also think you have missed out the Swindon :D game ?

[whosbrianwilson]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever of going through the rest of the season and only losing 3 games.

[duschko]

Fund this on the Sheff. Utd (whilst savouring the posts following their "disgraceful, embarrassing, humiliating" defeat to the mighty Alex.

Numbers on the left indicate points, numbers in brackets indicate games played.

52 No team relegated on this total
51
50 Safety 2012, Safety 2010*, Safety 2009, Safety 2008*, Average Safety 2008-2013(49.5).
49 Safety 2013
48 Safety 2011
47
46 Walsall(29)
45 Peterborough(28)
44
43
42
41 Swindon(29)
40
39 Port Vale(27)
38
37
36 MK Dons(28)
35 Gillingham(28)
34 Coventry(27), Bradford(27), Colchester(26)
33 Oldham(27)
32
31 Crawley(25), Tranmere(29)
30 Carlisle(28), Crewe(29)
29
28
27 Bristol City(29),
----------------------------------------------------------------------
27 Shrewsbury(29), Notts C(30)
26 Sheff U(27)
25 Stevenage(27)


next games:
Tranmere(29) - 31 points: Preston(H), Bristol C(A), Crawley(A), Coventry(H), Oldham(H)

Carlisle(28) - 30 points: Gillingham(H), Bradford(H), Crawley(A), Coventry(A), Rotherham(H)

Crewe A(29) - 30 points:

[duschko]

* Found :)

[alexmick]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever of going through the rest of the season and only losing 3 games.

I would settle for the 51 points total to be honest, especially considering the dreadful start to the season from the Alex. The author of this thread is being pretty optimistic considering he has allowed for just 3 defeats in the remaining games of the season.

[AlexonTour]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever of going through the rest of the season and only losing 3 games.

I would settle for the 51 points total to be honest, especially considering the dreadful start to the season from the Alex. The author of this thread is being pretty optimistic considering he has allowed for just 3 defeats
in the remaining games of the season.[/quote]

I possibly agree Alexmick whosbrianwilson after our dreadful start to the season, we need to consistently pick up points in the remaining matches if we are going to achieve a points target which might give us a chance of surviving so the margins are extremely tight. A few surprise wins and the situation would be so much brighter, but obviously a few surprising defeats and it will mean a really struggle to stay up.

[duschko]

Believe it or not only one team (Colchester) outside the play-off places has won more games than the Alex in their last ten matches!

[DGFG]

I also doubt we'll lose as few as three but I'd be amazed if we drew as many as 9.Don't see how 6 draws in 29 to date will be supplemented by 9 draws in the last 17, especially as most of the teams we are playing will be just as desperate for the points as we are.

51 should be enough - team in 20th place currently has 2 points less than they've played games which is a ratio considerably less than required to reach 51 points.

6 wins and 3 draws should do it - based on our recent improvement we should be capable of that - we've won 5 and drawn 2 of the last 11.

[Proggs]

At season "half point" we were on 24, so 51 isn't much of an improvement? To be as bad as we were and get 24 was 'keeping us in with a shout'. Since 2nd half began we gained "3" v Carlisle, we dropped a "point" with defeat to Rotherham, gained "3" v MK and dropped "3" v Tranny and gained "3" v Sheff.

So...

5 points better off against first half.

Hypothesis - 24 + 5 = 29 (plus 24 for first half) 53

;D lol

[Crewe313]

Also Crewe don't do draws. More than 3 defeats will happen but it doesn't matter if you are winning. 3 points is more valuable than 1 point. I think we can be more optimistic. Hopefully if we have a good run at the end of this season that it will continue into next season!!!

[alexmick]

I believe that the key to our survival lies in the home matches. We need to make Gresty Road a fortress and providing we can avoid regular losses there, win the majority and pick up the odd draw, we will be fine.Judging by the last three home outings, the effort from the players, the quality in our play and the improving rate of scoring goals (1, 2, 3), together with how the crowd has responded in a positive light, then I can see survival becoming a reality.

[out0lunch]

Looking at the remaining games, I have tried to be realistic in the points we can achieve, bearing in mind the teams we are playing and the situtaion they are in (ie promotion, play offs fighting relegation.

Will this be enough ?


Crewe Alex (Current Pts total) 30 Pts
Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0
Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts
Gillingham (a)1 Pt
Notts County (h)3 Pts
Coventry (H)1 pt
Crawley (a)1 Pt
Wolves (h)0
Shrewsbury (a)1 Pt
Colchester (h)3 Pts
Bristol City (a)1 Pt
Preston North End (h)1 Pt

Overall Total51 Pts


Well right so far :D

[somersetcrewe]

Well right so far :D


And still so!
The next 2 could be telling though!
4 pts from 6? - away from home?
Let's hope so! ;D

[PAULCAFC]

This looks well off right now.

[somersetcrewe]

This looks well off right now.


You sure?
Chin up, Paul, and give us a smile!! :D
I'd say we are now *ahead* of schedule!

[alexmick]

Just shows how important three points for a win can be. Draws are little use to us and the fact that we have drawn very few, together with fact that we keep getting that smattering of wins, this could well work in our favour.

Because I have not got DAB, was forced to listen to the MW version with Blakeman this PM. Tell you what, we must have been good, because the commentary was very much in favour of the Alex and even the analysis from Cullerton was complimentary. Vale have had a big shock to their system today. Blakeman commented on the scuffle in the executive box. Perhaps he was so fed up of watching his side being given a lesson in football.

[Proggs]

[quote="Proggs" v Sheff.

So...

5 points better off against first half.

Hypothesis - 24 + 5 = 29 (plus 24 for first half) 53

;D lol[/quote]

+8 points now :)

Really love a win on Tues.

[somersetcrewe]

Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0



Hmmmm, getting interesting now, should've known Stevenage was a dodgy one, what with our poor record against their huff-n-puff :( - but with Swindon up next, looks like this is a "bonus game"! ;D

(and yes, I know, it has been pointed out before)

[AlexonTour]

+8 points now :)



Really love a win on Tues.

Proggs brilliant assessment and a I love the logic I hope you are right as that means we will stay up.:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

[AlexonTour]

Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0



Hmmmm, getting interesting now, should've known Stevenage was a dodgy one, what with our poor record against their huff-n-puff :( - but with Swindon up next, looks like this is a "bonus game"! ;D

(and yes, I know, it has been pointed out before)[/quote]

Thank you to everyone that pointed out I had missed the Swindon game it was a deliberate ploy to see if anyone noticed.;D ;D ;D ;D

Well when I go back to the time I made the assessment of the games left, I will stick with my original prediction at the time which is

Swindon Town 0 Pts.

After the disappointment of Tueday night, this game becomes even more important now. The result last night means both Stevenage and Shrewsbury, both teams currently below us if they win their games in hand will go above us.

I was really disappoint

[somersetcrewe]

Yeah, I keep referring back to your thread for 2 reasons - because it's a useful guide and also (crucially) I *do* think 51 pts will be enough!
History suggests it will, more often than not!

[crewedaft]

Yeah, I keep referring back to your thread for 2 reasons - because it's a useful guide and also (crucially) I *do* think 51 pts will be enough!
History suggests it will, more often than not!

That's correct - the average number of points required to avoid relegation from this division over the last 10 years is 49.3. The most needed was 52, the least 44. 50 points should be enough. That's 5 more wins, possibly 4 if we draw quite a few of the rest.

[Proggs]

9 now. 9 points we didn't gain in the 1st half. We got zero from the last 3, scored 2 and conceeded 10. This time 4 points, scored 4 and conceeded 3.

So, is Posh a point again?

PU, Wal and Old only got us 2 points. Anything above that is 'bonus', then its 4 big games we need 8 from (but only got us 2 1st half).

Its crazy!

[somersetcrewe]

Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Swindon (h) 0



Adding Swindon in, and assumed the loss because we hadn't accounted for it, we are still on track then. Just a shame that it is exact so far with no margin for error.
Still, it's the Posh next week - and yet another bonus game! ;D
But a point at Walsall could be tricky :s

[AlexonTour]

Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Swindon (h) 0


Adding Swindon in, and assumed the loss because we hadn't accounted for it, we are still on track then. Just a shame that it is exact so far with no margin for error.
Still, it's the Posh next week - and yet another bonus game! ;D
But a point at Walsall could be tricky :s[/quote]

Still on schedule and as you quite rightly point out Peterborough is a bonus game although with the results yesterday re Stevenage and Bristol City these are becoming games that we may need something from just to stay on touch.

The lost points when been 2 goals clear re Rotherham, Peterborough, Bradford may prove extremely costly this season.

[somersetcrewe]

Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0



Looking on the bright side, STILL on track for 51 pts! ;D

The next 4 could be pivotal though ...

Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts
Gillingham (a)1 Pt
Notts County (h)3 Pts

[AlexonTour]

Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0



Looking on the bright side, STILL on track for 51 pts! ;D

The next 4 could be pivotal though ...

Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts
Gillingham (a)1 Pt
Notts County (h)3 Pts[/quote]

The next 4 games will give us a really good guide as to whether we will stay up or not. It has to be a minimum of 8 points and we have to win the games against Oldham and Notts County. The points ideally have to be as detailed above as we have seen from losing to Stevenage the consequences that had. With hindsight losing the Derby against vale but winning against Stevenage would have been more beneficial and given us the same points total that we managed from these two games anyway.

I still believe we can reach 51 points but as things are developing will this season be the only time in history you will

[somersetcrewe]

Loving this thread. AoT proving to be quite the clairvoyant so far! Hope Saturday comes true (really need Oldham to stick with Lee Johnson for at least ONE more game ;D)




Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0
Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts




And this comment ... ...


I also doubt we'll lose as few as three but I'd be amazed if we drew as many as 9.



... I probably shared that view ... but with 3 draws already? ;D

[AlexonTour]

Loving this thread. AoT proving to be quite the clairvoyant so far! Hope Saturday comes true (really need Oldham to stick with Lee Johnson for at least ONE more game ;D)




Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0
Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts




And this comment ... ...


I also doubt we'll lose as few as three but I'd be amazed if we drew as many as 9.



... I probably shared that view ... but with 3 draws already? ;D

I wish I was as lucky predicating the Lottery/Euromillions, although predicting our results this season has been something of a lottery.:D :D :D :D

Saturday has to be a win. Even a draw will not be good enough with so many tough games to come and we have to get above Oldham to give ourselves any chance now that Bristol City seem to be on a good run

[somersetcrewe]

Will 51 pts be enough? - yes, always thought that.
Will we get there? - it's on a knife-edge.
The bottom 4 is like bloody quick-sand, easy to sink in, bloody hard to get out again.

By the way, 11 teams!!
Do not assume Crawley are out of this. I know I keep banging on about this but they have the toughest run-in of all. I notice Tubbs was an unused sub last night - rested? injured? who knows but if our players were "flagging" last night (according to SD), I'm damn sure theirs will be!

[AlexonTour]

The bottom 4 is like bloody quick-sand, easy to sink in, bloody hard to get out again.
!

So true :D :D

Yes your are right re Crawley so we wil put them in the mix as well.;)

Looking at the forthcoming games there are massive games every week.

This week apart from our game you have

Carlisle v Stevenage
Crawley v Colchester
Tranmere v Notts County

18th March
Colchester v Shrewsbury

22nd March
Oldham v Crawley
Notts County v Carlisle
Colchester v Bristol City

25th
Crewe v Notts County
Carlisle v Shrewsbury

26th
Coventry v Stevenage

[AlexonTour]

The results during the week did not help too much although it meant Shrewsbury lost their game in hand and stayed below us, but it has opened up a gap to Colchester.

Our gutless and spineless performance against Oldham last week does not bode well for the remaining '9' cup finals we have left.

As I see it now the relegation fight is between 7 teams

Notts County
Shrewsbury
Stevenage
Carlisle
Tranmere
Oldham

Tranmere, Carlisle, Stevenage, have a game in hand

Stevenage game in hand is against Wolves
Tranmere is away at Crawley
Carlisle is also away at Crawley.

22nd March

Notts County v Carlisle

25th
Crewe v Notts County
Carlisle v Shrewsbury

26th
Coventry v Stevenage

So other big games as well this week.

Until it is mathematicaly impossible I still believe we can turn it around, but performances like the one v Oldham have no place for the run in, it has got to be plenty of passion, guts, committmement, determination and play as a total unit from front to back and back

[somersetcrewe]

Look on the bright side, if we win tomorrow, we are back on track with your original predictions!!
Duggy with the winner??? Wouldn't that be nice!!

Not even contemplating defeat!

EDIT: just realised - we really are behind the 8-ball aren't we. We have yet to make up for the Stevenage loss!!
******!!! :blue:

[DGFG]

I'm preparing to be amazed but I still doubt we'll draw 5 of the last 9.

I sincerely hope we don't because if it happens we'll be relegated.

Tomorrow is time to stand up and be counted by pulling off a win against the odds - then win one of the next two home games and build on the momentum created.

[Proggs]

We will be relegated :blue: the writing seems to be on the wall and, ironically, has been since pre-season game 1. What a terrible pre-season it was and we've never got going.

I see us bullied to death tomorrow and maybe on the end of a 4 - 1 or similar.

[alexmick]

As the matches fly by and we continue to display an appalling run of form (and injury woes), then relegation is looking more and more likely. Only one win in the last 8 matches does not look good, although I will not give up all hope until it is mathematical possible that we cannot survive. The run in does not look good on paper. Even the games we fancy our chances in, like Shrewsbury are not foregone conclusions, especially considering that woeful performance against Oldham (and that was at home), so I am mentally preparing myself if we are relegated. It won't be the end of the world. Looking at those fixtures, the games against Coventry, Wolves, Preston and even Bristol & Crawley look insurmountable from our present standpoint. However, football is a funny old game and I do believe that fortune has a big part to play in it from time to time. Perhaps lady luck will shine on us over the next 6 weeks.

[Proggs]

12 points better off so far and onto Tues which was a 4 nil loss in 1st half.

Need to do "back to back" wins don't we! Win Tues will be a big result, though a big ask.

Shrews and Notts will see "beating us" as massive for them too.

Onwards!!

12 better off but Preston, Crawley and Brizzle were wins 1st half and may be hard to repeat, so we need wins in "bonus" games and that's Tues!!!

COYRs

[DGFG]

Goal difference suddenly becoming interesting as well.

We're within striking distance of goal difference of the two teams directly below us and Notts Co and Stevenage GD are not entirely out of reach either.

Win on Tues would be great but we must not lose - 6 of bottom 8 play each other Tues, - Oldham and Colchester have very difficult fixtures on paper at least.

Bottom 10 all definitely still in this - again next Sat, 6 of bottom 9 play each other - Carlisle's next two fixtures against the teams directly below and above them.

The fixtures those in bottom ten play against each other are likely to be pivotal.

[AlexonTour]

Coventry (H)1 pt
Crawley (a)1 Pt
Wolves (h)0
Shrewsbury (a)1 Pt
Colchester (h)3 Pts
Bristol City (a)1 Pt
Preston North End (h)1 Pt


Last night was another shocking performance after getting another good result on Saturday we choked again, why I am suprised.

We will not reach 51 pts now. We may reach 48/49 but that would be based on winning against either Coventry/Crawley, winning at Shrewsbury and at home to Colchester. None of those as we have experienced this season will be easy.

With our inconsistent season so far we can do it (eg Vale, Gillingham, Sheffield Utd) but also we can blow it (eg Stevenage, Oldham, Notts County).

I wil still believe (they are coming to lock me away) until it is mathematically impossible to stay up, isnt that my job as a supporter, but I really do not how this is going to end.

[Proggs]

Looking at the remaining games, I have tried to be realistic in the points we can achieve, bearing in mind the teams we are playing and the situtaion they are in (ie promotion, play offs fighting relegation.

Will this be enough ?


Crewe Alex (Current Pts total) 30 Pts
Bradford (a)1 Pt
Brentford (h)0
Port Vale (a)1 pt
Stevenage (a)3 Pts
Peterborough (a)0
Walsall (a)1 Pt
Oldham (h)3 Pts
Gillingham (a)1 Pt
Notts County (h)3 Pts
Coventry (H)1 pt
Crawley (a)1 Pt
Wolves (h)0
Shrewsbury (a)1 Pt
Colchester (h)3 Pts
Bristol City (a)1 Pt
Preston North End (h)1 Pt

Overall Total51 Pts

Yes.

[AlexLeicester]

A while ago I said that whoever lost when we played at Tranmere would go down - not a prediction, but a statement of how important I felt that game was.

How overjoyed I am to admit how wrong I was - especially as this half empty glass in my hand keeps shaking. :-D

It's a massive achievement, helped not a little by the Gresty Road Enders today and us lot in the Main Stand.

PS: Tell our gaffer that the shot that led to him checking his heart was going well wide. Ben knew it and we a little higher up also knew it. X-D

[AlexonTour]

[quote="AlexLeicester"

PS: Tell our gaffer that the shot that led to him checking his heart was going well wide. Ben knew it and we a little higher up also knew it. X-D[/quote]

Well Alex Leicester I sit mid way in the main stand just over the half way line an my heart stopped just like Steves :D :D

Well we ended on 51 pts in the end losing some games you would have expected us to win and obviously winning games you thought would be difficult.

If things had played out as they did with our goal difference we would have needed 51 pts to stay up.

It was a hard season both on and off the pitch credit to the manager Bakes and the players for turning it around just in time. It was great to see the ground rocking today brilliant support best atmosphere from Crewe fans for many many years.