Points required for survival

[Fargone]

Only twice in the last dozen years has a team with less than 40 points managed to escape the relegation playoffs. Average safety points tally is 41.5. Positive results now needed - view external link (www.arbroath-mad.co.uk/news/tmnw/points_required_for_survival_824275/index.shtml)

[lichtgilphead]

I appreciate the point you are trying to make, Fargone, but would point out that the two seasons in which a team on less than 40 points escaped the playoffs were also 2 of the highest 3 totals achieved by the championship winners.

On current form, Sevco are likely to rack up around 105 points. As a result, every other team is realistically looking at a maximum of around 97 points instead of the usual maximum of 108.

Accordingly, I would suggest we could reduce the average points needed by around 10% to take account of the fact that fewer points are realistically available to the other 9 teams. By that reckoning, I would suggest that 38 points may be sufficient for 8th this season...

[ClashCityRocker]

This topic has already been discussed on a thread below...

Think we need to gain around 38 points to avoid the play offs - in other words, win at least 7 of the remaining 13 matches.

The squad of players we have can achieve this, but we need to stop leaking goals .

Beating Dunfermline tomorrow night won't be easy, but we are then on a good run of matches against teams we can beat.

[stan3600]

Let's stop kidding ourselves. Our defence is terrible. It will be a miracle if we can win 50% of the games. The best we can hope for is keeping ahead of Airdrie and running in to some late form to win the playoffs. Why did we sign 3 strikers and no defenders in the window?

[ectolichtie]

2 threads on the same subject, really

[smokie_bacon_crisps]

Let's stop kidding ourselves. Our defence is terrible. It will be a miracle if we can win 50% of the games. The best we can hope for is keeping ahead of Airdrie and running in to some late form to win the playoffs. Why did we sign 3 strikers and no defenders in the window?

Because in the 7 following games after Erwin left we only scored 3 goals (2 of those by defenders). These were all close goals with only a goal in them (besides the the Rangers & Dunfermline home games)

We have managed 2 goals in our last three games but we always play attacking football and the more options we have the better. Suspensions and injuries no doubt will also happen.

[ARBROATHNOSE]

We need one more than second bottom at the end of the season!