View Full Version : Points required for survival
Fargone
10-02-2014, 06:20 PM
Only twice in the last dozen years has a team with less than 40 points managed to escape the relegation playoffs. Average safety points tally is 41.5. Positive results now needed - view external link (www.arbroath-mad.co.uk/news/tmnw/points_required_for_survival_824275/index.shtml)
lichtgilphead
10-02-2014, 10:48 PM
I appreciate the point you are trying to make, Fargone, but would point out that the two seasons in which a team on less than 40 points escaped the playoffs were also 2 of the highest 3 totals achieved by the championship winners.
On current form, Sevco are likely to rack up around 105 points. As a result, every other team is realistically looking at a maximum of around 97 points instead of the usual maximum of 108.
Accordingly, I would suggest we could reduce the average points needed by around 10% to take account of the fact that fewer points are realistically available to the other 9 teams. By that reckoning, I would suggest that 38 points may be sufficient for 8th this season...
ClashCityRocker
10-02-2014, 11:20 PM
This topic has already been discussed on a thread below...
Think we need to gain around 38 points to avoid the play offs - in other words, win at least 7 of the remaining 13 matches.
The squad of players we have can achieve this, but we need to stop leaking goals .
Beating Dunfermline tomorrow night won't be easy, but we are then on a good run of matches against teams we can beat.
stan3600
11-02-2014, 10:35 PM
Let's stop kidding ourselves. Our defence is terrible. It will be a miracle if we can win 50% of the games. The best we can hope for is keeping ahead of Airdrie and running in to some late form to win the playoffs. Why did we sign 3 strikers and no defenders in the window?
ectolichtie
12-02-2014, 06:17 PM
2 threads on the same subject, really
smokie_bacon_crisps
12-02-2014, 07:24 PM
Let's stop kidding ourselves. Our defence is terrible. It will be a miracle if we can win 50% of the games. The best we can hope for is keeping ahead of Airdrie and running in to some late form to win the playoffs. Why did we sign 3 strikers and no defenders in the window?
Because in the 7 following games after Erwin left we only scored 3 goals (2 of those by defenders). These were all close goals with only a goal in them (besides the the Rangers & Dunfermline home games)
We have managed 2 goals in our last three games but we always play attacking football and the more options we have the better. Suspensions and injuries no doubt will also happen.
ARBROATHNOSE
13-02-2014, 12:27 PM
We need one more than second bottom at the end of the season!
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