Gambling

[Trickytreesreds]

I know lots of folks on here gamble, though I don't cos I'm crap at it.
I was wondering what folks base their gambling judgment on. Stats/gut feeling/ logic/ greed/fun ?

No catch. Just opinions please.
An example I saw today, was on Deal or No Deal. I don't normally watch it, as it's more a luck game.
However with my limited knowledge, the way the game panned out, meant I could still weigh up the odds.
He gambled by reusing an offer of 35k, cos 5 big reds were still on the board. Ok I thought, I understand that. He bombed it, but still got an offer of 26k.
He turned that down. And bombed again losing the 250k.
He was then left with the 1p box and the 100k box, with an offer of 22k.
My brain, was screaming take it. Yet he gambled again and LOST!
Why would anyone think this was worth risks?

[essexred52]

When you gamble you take what you win or what's offered ie the 22k, I enjoy my afternoons in the betting shop and if sensible 9 times out of 10 I walk out winning on the flip side when I'm foolish I lose badly at times, follow what you think might win, I tend to go down the score and win bets on the football ie forest 5 derby 2, the odds are very good normally I pick 3 to 4 games and put a fiver on and the return is normally about 350 quid +, 7 wins I've had so far this season on the score and win bets, follow what your instinct is telling you and be SENSIBLE the person on deal or no deal was not sensible and lost the lot, he or she must feel like a turkey with Bernard Matthews looking at him.

[Elite_Pie]

He was then left with the 1p box and the 100k box, with an offer of 22k.
My brain, was screaming take it. Yet he gambled again and LOST!
Why would anyone think this was worth risks?


My brain would have been screaming just the opposite. The gamble was effectively worth 100k or nothing. Why would an offer of 22k be even slightly tempting? The sums of money involved may sway things in that 22k would make them happy, but the odds value says the bloke took the correct option. I would have done the same without a moments hesitation.

The original question on what I base my gambling judgment on is far too complex to answer on here, but the above gives a clue to the core principle. If the odds are in your favour take them, if they're not then don't.

[Trickytreesreds]

He was then left with the 1p box and the 100k box, with an offer of 22k.
My brain, was screaming take it. Yet he gambled again and LOST!
Why would anyone think this was worth risks?


My brain would have been screaming just the opposite. The gamble was effectively worth 100k or nothing. Why would an offer of 22k be even slightly tempting? The sums of money involved may sway things in that 22k would make them happy, but the odds value says the bloke took the correct option. I would have done the same without a moments hesitation.

The original question on what I base my gambling judgment on is far too complex to answer on here, but the above gives a clue to the core principle. If the odds are in your favour take them, if they're not then don't.[/quote]

As I said, I am no gambler. I think I understand what you are saying EP, it's just that my nature does not.
I think that is

[Elite_Pie]

He was then left with the 1p box and the 100k box, with an offer of 22k.
My brain, was screaming take it. Yet he gambled again and LOST!
Why would anyone think this was worth risks?


My brain would have been screaming just the opposite. The gamble was effectively worth 100k or nothing. Why would an offer of 22k be even slightly tempting? The sums of money involved may sway things in that 22k would make them happy, but the odds value says the bloke took the correct option. I would have done the same without a moments hesitation.

The original question on what I base my gambling judgment on is far too complex to answer on here, but the above gives a clue to the core principle. If the odds are in your favour take them, if they're not then don't.[/quote]

As I said, I am no gambler. I think I understand what you are saying E

[Romanis]

All I know is that I wish I was Es***'s bookie and those of his ilk. I'd be able to retire with a villa in Marbella in a couple of years;D

To answer the question, yes one can survive off gambling if you are extremely disciplined.

You have to be patient and wait for the winnable games to come along (I only know of footy betting, others bet in their respective fields). Eg: I knew Man Utd to beat Olympiakos was the 1 good bet (I wagered modestly). But if I was into serious betting would I have stayed away from United v Liverpool? I doubt so.

The golden rule is when you are losing, stop. When you are winning, go for it (to a certain extent).

Unfortunately most punters (myself included) do the opposite - bet more after a loss, instead of taking a rain check.